It's time once again, my friends. It's time for the greatest game on Earth to get started.
As usual, the Eastern Conference first. Now I've been very critical of the East the last few years, and for good reason: they have fucking sucked. And please don't say, "If they sucked, then why did the Heat win the title last year?" Here's why:
! They had an easy road to the Finals. The hardest series they played in was their first round series, against the Bulls, and a true NBA champion should not have had that much trouble with that Bulls team. They then cakewalked past a Nets team that featured only older guards, and met what should have been the other Elite team in the Eastern Conference Finals--except the Pistons went Section 8, shit all over themselves, and were easily shown the door. It was the perfect road to the Finals for the Heat.
! Meanwhile, the Four--that's right, Four, not Two--Elite teams in the West spent several weeks beating the Hell out of each other before the Mavs finally made it to the Finals. All Four of those teams were better than the Heat (btw, in case you were wondering, the Four were the Mavs, Spurs, Suns, and Clippers).
! And, of course, the NBA decided that they didn't want Mark Cuban to win a championship, and cheated to make sure the Heat won. It's a fact, but the past is the past, and we're not going to talk about it again.
Anyway, I was surprised when looking at the East's rosters this year to find that they are getting better. They got worse when it came to Elite teams, but overall the teams have improved. Last year, the East looked like this:
Elite Teams: Pistons
Dark Horse Teams: Heat, maybe Cavs.
Good Teams, But No Serious Threat To A Contender: Nets
Don't Completely Suck, But Are Pretty Bad: Wiz, Pacers, Bulls, Bucks
Completely Suck: Everyone else.
That's not exactly an inspiring bunch right there. So how do they stack up this year? Well, I'm glad you asked...
Not As Bad As The bottom Last Year, But Still Pretty Bad15. Toronto RaptorsI dislike Charlie Villanueva. We've been over this before: once he signs his post-rookie contract, he's going to retire--but he's going to forget to tell everyone he's retiring. And he's going to keep showing up for work.
I want to like T.J. Ford. He's an exciting player. He has great moments. He had the traumatic injury that we all want him to recover from. I want him to succeed.
But the fact is, T.J. Ford is a young Speedy Claxton. Did you want a young Speedy Claxton as your starting point guard? No. Hell, you don't want an experienced Speedy Claxton as your starting point guard. Certainly not for a player that still has to play well for two more years to get his big contract.
As for the rest of the team...if Mo Pete is the answer, I don't want to know the question...Ditto that for Rasho...Again, I want to like Joey Graham, but I don't see him being as good as Desmond is in The League, and to be honest Desmond is a bit of a disappointment...They may have the worst first pick of the draft since Kwame Brown...when you're excited about Anthony Parker coming back from Israel or wherever the Hell he's been playing, that's not good.
There is hope for this team. If T.J. Ford & Jose Calderon combine to make a decent point guard tandem for the season...if Fred Jones has a breakout season for them (and I think he will; someone has to score)...as long as Chris Bosh doesn't get hurt...if Joey Graham improves...if Bargani can give them anything, even just be a good ten minute a game sub...then maybe they won't finish last. But that's about as good as it gets.
14. Atlanta Hawks Now this isn't near as bad as it was last year. Remember: I think the middle of the East is going to be highly competitive. That's the good and the bad thing for the Hawks.
For the first time in years, they have reason to hope. Joe Johnson proved in the Summer that he's an Elite player. Marvin Williams lit up the Summer Leagues, looks like he might be improving, and will get PT now that Al Harrington is gone. Josh Smith was awesome the last month or two of the season last season. They actually signed a point guard this summer.
Of course, there's bad news. I'll believe Marvin Williams will be a good NBA player when it happens. At best, I think he is still at least two years away from being a solid starter. Don't buy into the Josh Smith hype. He's one of those guys that's going to give you jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjust enough not to give up on him, but will never amount to anything. The point guard they signed? Speedy Claxton. Hey, he's great if he's your change-of-pace backup, but your every day starting point? With Salim Stoudamire as his backup? Ow. The Hawks totally pissed away their draft pick in getting Sheldon Williams; undersized power forwards from Duke do not have good NBA careers (no, Elton Brand is not undersized).
Again, they're better than this year than last. Unfortunately, so is the rest of their conference.
13. Charlotte BobcatsThis team has a lot of young talent that should get better this year. More talent than should be in 13th place. However...something just doesn't feel right to me about this time. I see too many guys who need the basketball in their hands to play well; this seems like one of those "they need to play with at least two, and maybe three balls" kind of teams. Plus, while there is talent there, I think that Okafur, Morrison, and even May to an extent are overrated.
This team has the talent to end up higher. But I think that they're going to end up right about here.
12. Boston Celtics Every year, there seems to be a team in the NBA that makes you go, "Wow, I didn't think those guys would be good, but I didn't think they'd be THAT bad." I really think the Celtics could be that team this year. If Paul Pierce goes down with a major injury, slide them even lower from here.
Again, there is young talent here. However, here's what I think about that young talent:
$ Al Jefferson: He's going to be out of the league by the end of next season. Sorry Bill. He showed up to the summer league with two years of experience, and was in excellent shape, and he
still couldn't do shit there.
$ Gerald Green: He might be a great player, but it's not going to happen this year. I think the best thing that might happen to him is Pierce missing the second half of the season with an injury, which unfortunately is the worst thing that can happen to the C's.
$ Kendrick Perkinds: I've never understood what was so fucking great about this guy. Certainly not his stats. He's a journeyman undersized center is all.
$ Delonte West: Classic "plays hard and smart, but isn't very talented" guy. Meaning he'll always be slightly below average, but he'll endear himself to fans and coaches enough that they'll forgive the "slightly".
$ Sebastian Telfair: You know you're off to a "fresh start" in your new city when you shoot a rapper in training camp. Let's just say I'm not expecting big things. Sebastian being close to his hometown is not a good thing.
$ Tony Allen: Don't make me laugh.
$ Ryan Gomes: See, I think he's got a little something. I think he can become a solid NBA starter, a guy you even consider for the All Star Game once or twice in his career. Unfortunately for the C's, they're going to give Al Jefferson the season to sink or swim, so Gomes is still a couple years away from blossoming.
Throw in Doc Rivers choosing his lineups by shooting dice in the hall before the game, and that Wall Z is involved, and I don't have a ton of faith in this team. I'll say it again: pray that Paul Pierce doesn't go down this year, Boston fans.
11. New York KnicksOf course, this team could also crash and burn. But I don't know...for some reason, I don't think this team will be as bad as people think/hope they'll be. Hey I hate Isiah Thomas too; I would love it if they are in last place again to spite him. But for some crazy reason--and this is purely intuition--I think he can do a little something with these guys.
I think Stephon is going to have a good season. I think he and Thomas are going to click, and he'll be more comfortable, and Stephon plays well when he's comfortable. Great? No. But well. I think they have good rookies in Frye and Lee, and I think that Balkman--while not good at all--is exactly what this team needs: a hussle guy who does the little things, dives for loose balls, gets excited, and is great for team chemistry. You need those guys. I think you might be able to move Stevie Franchise for something, and who knows? Maybe you get something out of Eddie Curry. I think this team knows they are expected to suck and that people hope they suck, so they're going to play with a carefree, us against the world attitude that surprises people.
Having said all that, we're still only talking 30-35 wins here. But hey--that isn't last place.
The Teams That Are Moving In The Wrong Direction10. Washington WizardsThis is the year that the Wizards finally come back to Earth. This has been a somewhat surprisingly good team the last few years. Arenas, Hughes, Jamison, Jeffries, and Haywood made a great core. Then they lost Hughes. However, they did a good job replacing him with Caron Butler, so they were able to keep it going. This summer, however, they lost Jeffries, and losing Jefferies is going to hurt the Wizards a lot more than adding him to the Knicks will help the Knicks.
You see, Jefferies was a good glue guy. He didn't need/want to score, but he played good defense, rebounded, and was a good weak side shot blocker. He allowed Jamison and Arenas to do what they do best: score, and score, and score some more. Now, with him gone, and not having filled that void, they're going to be in trouble. Now, Jamison needs to score, rebound, and defend. Same with Butler.
It's like an engine that is under too much pressure. They've been going on fine for a while, even as the engine kept adding pressure, and a crack or two appeared, but it wasn't too much. Now, however, it's time for the engine to start popping open some major cracks that shoot out some bad looking steam. For the first time in several years, when the season gets to crunch time, the Wizards will find themselves standing on the outside, instead of finding a way to be standing on the inside.
9. Philadelphia 76ers I keep going back and forth on this team.
It's been two straight career years for Allen. This has to be the season where he finally slows down, right? Surely it's time for him to miss significant time with an injury? My God Chris Webber looks like his leg will fall off any minute now. I can't believe he's their 2nd best player. Wow they overpaid for Kyle Korver and Samuel Dalembert. Think they want to be able to make those decisions again? So, AI2, you going to actually do anything this year? He's going to be another promising Small Forward who busts. Willie Green is not going to ever recover from his knee surgery. Rodney Carney will be a bust.
Or...
AI is incredible. He figured it out two years ago, and he's still only 31, so he's got a couple good years left in him. Is Chris Webber a superstar anymore? No, but he's still a damn good power forward as long as he stays healthy. Are Korver and Dalembert overpaid? Yes, but Korver is still a great shooter, and Dalembert is still a good starting center in this league. AI2 is going to make The Leap this year; he's ready to start shining. Adding Willie Green this season is going to be a big plus that no one expects; he's going to give them a good bench presence that they need. Carney is a gamechanger who's going to make some mistakes, but will be a solid rookie who again adds some much needed bench depth. Steven Hunter is a great backup center; he'd start on most teams. Kevin Ollie is overpaid, as well, but he is a solid backup point guard.
As usual, I think the truth is somewhere in between. I don't think AI breaks down, but I think his run of career years ends this year, and he just has a "great" season instead of a "career" season. I do think AI2 makes The Leap this year. I don't think Chris Webber is going to give them much except pouty faces. I do think that Green and Carney will help add some punch to a bench that needed it last year.
When you add up all the pluses and minuses, though, it will be about the same as it was last year: Philly will be counting on one of the two teams above them to slip up at the end of they year; if they do, they will make the playoffs. If they don't, then Philly will just miss it.
Solid Younger Teams That Could Go Either Way8. Orlando Magic Yes. I'm doing it. I'm buying into this team. For years, everyone else tried to buy into the Magic, and I said no. "They're not ready," I said. "Don't trust Grant Hill." And I was right.
Maybe all that was missing was me. Maybe that's it. Well, I'm with you now guys. Welcome to the playoffs.
There's still risk here--this team could end up right back in 10th or 11th place. But I don't think so. They've got a bona fide superstar in The Man Child, Dwight Howard. This is the year he averages about 22, 15, and about 2 blocks. I don't like small point guards, but I think Jameer Nelson is smart and driven enough to succeed in this league. It's taken him a coupla years to figure it out, but now he's ready to be a good point guard on a playoff team. And if he's not? I still say Carlos Arroyo is a good point guard in this league. They're set at that position. I think Darko gives you something this year. I think something is 10-12 points, about 8 rebounds, and 1.5 to 2.0 blocks, but that's good starting center numbers in this league. All the pundits who think this is the year Darko establishes himself are way over the mark--at his best, he will be a solid NBA center, and nothing more, and he's still a year or two away from that--but playing next to Dwight Howard, he won't be asked to do much. I think they are going to be pleasantly surprised with what Trevor Ariza brings them. And I think that yes, finally, this is the year that Grant Hill plays most of the season. Will he be a star? No. But he'll be a solid small forward who can score enough to keep teams honest, and that helps.
There are holes, no doubt. If Hedo Turkoglu is your starting 2 guard, well, that's bad. They've pissed away the last two years worth of draft picks (the Spanish guy and J.J. Redick, who will be out of the league in two years). I question their outside shooting. But I think that this is a good young team that plays hard, with confidence, and with spunk, and I think they find their way into the playoffs as the world cheers them on.
7. Indiana Pacers Here's the thing with the Pacers. I think they're a good young team. The problem? I don't think they realize they're a good young team.
They need to get rid of Stephen Jackson and Jamaal Tinsley ASAP. These guys are cancers who are going to do nothing but underachieve, spoil the chemistry of your team, and turn you into the Blazers of the East. Don't think you can honestly compete with them, because you can't. Even if you get rid of them for $.50 on the dollar, do it.
What does that leave you with? One of the best PF's in the league (Jermaine O'Neal). One of the better young players in the league who just needs to play (Danny Granger). A solid guard/forward who also needs more minutes to shine (Marquis Daniels). Two quality centers (Foster and Harrison). A young point guard who everyone believes has the potential to be a solid player in this league (Sarunas Jasikevicius). Your Prodigal Son who has come home after leaving for the dregs of the NBA, and is ready to do whatever it takes to win (Al Harrington).
That's a good team right there, and that doesn't include whatever you get for dealing Jackson and Tinsley. Look for a solid veteran point and a sharp shooting 2-guard for the two of them. Then let your young team grow together. I promise you they'll do just as well as they would with the more talented, but crazy and evil veterans.
Either way, I think they finish about here.
6. Milwaukee BucksI think this team should be higher; I think they're better than the Nets, and maybe even the Pistons if things continue to spiral out of control as they did in the playoffs last season. However, I thought they were better than
squeaking into the 8th seed last year, so I'm hesitant to pick them higher.
There is talent and depth at every position on this team. There's really not much to say here, except that there is no excuse for this team to finish any lower than 6th. If they stumble out of the gate, look for Terry Stotts to get the quick heave-ho.
Meh Teams5. New Jersey NetsWhat is a "Meh" team? It's a team that is better than the strong up and coming center of the Eastern conference, but not anybody to be really taken seriously. The first example is the Nets. Once again, Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson will make this team fun to watch and competitive. Once again, they will quickly get sent home in the second round of the playoffs, and will never really compete with any of the Elite or Dark Horse teams.
Meh.
4. Chicago Bulls Count me among those who aren't as impressed with the Ben Wallace signing. Is he better than Tyson Chandler? Yes. Is he that much better than Tyson Chandler? No.
This is going to be a very good defensive team that is really boring to watch. Here's the problem: if their jump shots aren't falling, this team ain't gonna score shit. Wallace and P.J. Brown (Wallace because he can't do it, Brown because he's too old) are not solid low post scorers. Hinrich, Gordon, and Nocioni are not slashers who create their shots and get to the rim. Deng is, but will he play enough behind those three to make that much of a difference? Not so much. Thomas might be a great player, or he might be Marvin Williams. We definitely won't know this year, as he's going to play slightly more than Darko did his first year.
Don't get me wrong; this is a good team that can compete with the best of them, and if the Pistons struggle, or if Wade, Lebron, or Shaq miss any extended time with injury, they will move up. But they aren't really ready to compete for the title yet, as some pundits would have had you believe after they signed Wallace.
3. Detroit Pistons Hard to believe that a team that won 64 games last season and I'm predicting to finish in 3rd place is considered "meh", isn't it? Well, that's what happens when you have a classic bell curve for your Conference--lots of guys in the middle, not a lot on either extreme end.
This team could go either way. After the embarrassment of last summer, they could finish here and compete with the elite, though not have enough firepower to be more than a Dark Horse Contender. Or, they could be the classic "right people at the right place at the right time" where the slightest miscue completely throws them off--you know, like losing the heart and soul of their franchise--and drop a slot or two lower. We won't know until they start playing. But I just can't see Chauncy Billups letting that happen.
For the record, I can't remember who wrote this, but I loved this idea: instead of signing Nazr Mohammed, they should have waited and signed Bonzi Wells, especially since he couldn't get shit on the market. Then they could have gone with a more uptempo attack, and counted on all the veterans to keep Bonzi in line. I'm sorry, but if Nazr Mohammed is the answer, then as the old saying goes, you're fucked.
The Best I'll Give Them Is Dark Horse Title Contenders2. Miami HeatI still can't believe this terrible team won the title. Sigh...I'm sorry, I promised.
Okay: Shaq, GP, Zo, and 'Toine are aging in dog years at this point in their careers. And what is their motivation? Last year, they all the dream of that elusive title, except for Shaq, who had the dream of the title without Kobe. Now that is motivation. I'm sorry, but at this point in their careers, "repeating" isn't quite the same motivation, especially for someone like Shaq who--God bless him--tends to get distracted easily from the whole "training" thing. They have one good young player--Wayne Simien--who unfortunately plays the same position of the one solid presence on their starting lineup who isn't aging in dog years (Udonis Haslem). And White Chocolate is still your point guard.
Hey, they still have Dwayne Wade. And a 50% Shaq is still pretty good. And if we learned anything in The Finals, it's that any team that DWade is on is not going quietly into the night (sorry, sorry). And this is still a conference with almost no Elite teams. So they'll be right there at the end. Unfortunately for them, I think they just don't have enough firepower to overcome the star power of the...
One Truly Elite Team in the Eastern Conference1. Cleveland CavaliersThat's right Ben. Your day has come!
The Cavs. This is a team that did the opposite of the Pistons in the playoffs last year; instead of falling down at mid court, tucking into the fetal position, and sucking their thumbs, they went, "Wait a minute--we can beat any of these guys!" And that, my friends, is a powerful lesson to learn.
Here's the thing. I think they stack up against the Heat
PERFECTLY. That's why they'll beat them during the regular season, and that's why I think they'll fairly easily dispatch them in 6 games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
PG--Eric Snow v White Chocolate: Wash. Hell, give a slight edge to Dub C.
SG--Lebron v DWade: Lebron, both in talent and in officiating. That's right DWade. You will not get 25 free throws against Lebron's team, I promise you that. And then your team is fucked.
SF--Hughes v 'Toine: Okay, so really it'll be Hughes v Wade and Lebron v 'Toine, but you know the matchup we all want. Big edge to Hughes here.
PF--Gooden v Haslem: Wash. Probably a slight edge to Gooden.
C--Big Z v Shaq: Wash. Yeah, you read that right. I'm sorry, but at this point in his career, this is about a wash. Maybe a slight edge to Shaq, but not enough to make a difference.
Benches: LOL. Huge edge to the Cavs, and their bench isn't even that good.
This is the year the NBA has been waiting for. This is the year the NBA has been dreaming of since 1998 (the Wizard's years didn't happen, okay?).
This is the Year of Lebron.