2012 Eastern Conference Preview
It's that time kids. Let's do this!!!
My God these teams are awful. Just awful.
15. Orlando Magic
I can see half of this team being traded this season. There isn't a team out there who won't need a pure shooter like Redick? Think some playoff team needing a big body won't talk themselves into Big Baby? You know Orlando can't WAIT to get rid of Nelson, Harington, and Hedo. Not only will this team be tanking, but any veteran who starts playing halfway decent will be shipped out as soon as they can get something for him. Good luck Orlando fans.
14. Washington Wizards
There are teams in the East with less talent than the Wizards, but I just get a bad vibe from this team. Okafur is the new Pervis Ellision; he always seems to play on crappy teams. John Wall continues to be a great athlete who seems like he can't figure out how to play basketball. I'm among those not sold on Bradley Beal, and Trevor Ariza is one of those guys who are good on good teams and bad on bad teams. This team still just feels like it's going nowhere.
13. Charlotte Bobcats
I like the younger players on this team. Who doesn't like Kidd-Gilchrest? I think Gerald Henderson is going to be a solid player, and Bismack Biyombo is exciting to watch if nothing else. It's the vets on this team that are going to hold them back. Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Brendan Haywood? Uhhhh. Seriously, if you were fielding a 12 man roster of overpaid and overhyped players who also have piss poor attitudes, Gordon, Thomas, and Haywood would be on it, right? And you could make the case for Sessions? Once again, I say uhhhhh.
12. Detroit Pistons
Every single one of these players is overrated. Every single one! It's unbelievable! Look at this roster:
This team is getting some, "Hey, the Pistons might be surprisingly good!" buzz. Don't buy it. This team sucks.
Really bad, but they do have at least one thing going for them...
11. Cleveland Cavaliers
I hesitate to go this high with the Cavs (and yes it is sad that 11th in the East is considered "this high" for them)--I could see Detroit actually finishing ahead of them--because they are another "they could be suprising!" buzz team, but I buy into it for the Cavs. I agree that Kyrie Irving could be ready to jump into the Top 30, and even though I think that Dion Waiters was overrated just like all Syracuse players are (this is a post in and of itself), I think he will play well next to Irving. Varejao is the perfect hardworking veteran compliment to those guys, and Tyler Zeller and Tristan Thompson will play hard and fun enough to make this team entertaining. Combine that with the fact that Cleveland fans give them a true home court advantage in that they will cheer any improvement since Lebron's departure, and you do sense that this team is on its way up.
Two things make me nervous: 1) Duke players are cursed in the NBA, and Irving has already had a couple of weird injuries in his very young career. If he goes down for long periods of time, this time is battling Orlando for the worst record. 2) The "nice young team that is fun to watch" makes lots of mistakes, and with the exception of Varaejao there are no vets that I really trust on this team. I mean for God's sake, who the Hell is Alonzo Gee?
But in the end, even though the record won't be great, I think the Cavs are fun and get better as the season goes on. This is a squad on the way up.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
The fact that I have the Bucks this close to the playoffs is more of an indictment on how bad the East is then it is an endorsement on how good the Bucks are. This is one of those bad Isiah Thomas-style fantasy league teams where you look at the roster and go, "Wow, there are 10 okay NBA players on this roster...but none of them fit together well." Fortunately (or unfortunately, since that leaves them on the bottom side of the middle) for the Bucks, they play in the East, so they won't get shellacked like they would in the West. In the end, I think the Bucks have enough talent to finish above the worst, but not enough to do anything substantial with it.
9. Toronto Raptors
The East should be ashamed of itself that the Raptors are finishing this high. This is another team that was getting buzz for being better than expected, and my first thought was, "you've got to be kidding me. This team sucks." And while I still stand by that, what I underestimated was how bad the rest of the East was. The East is the classic "someone has to finish in 7th place" (more on that later), so the fact that Toronto is in 9th doesn't mean that Toronto is necessarily moving in the right direction.
The thing that I do think this team has going for it is it has a halfway decent second unit. I think Kyle Lawry is overrated as a starter...but he's not awful, and Jose Caldron as a backup gives you a distinct advantage over the other team's backup. Same thing for DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields at shooting guard. Ed Davis is a nice backup PF (just like his father was). That makes this team a tough out, which gets you way too high in the East.
Things are going to go horribly, horribly wrong for these teams...but you won't really notice, because they'll somehow make the playoffs.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
You now, I could talk a lot about the Sixers problems, but in the end the answer is this: I am not an Andrew Bynum believer. I'm just not. I think he's a guy who is almost always going to be hurt, and when he's not happy--which is often--he's going to say he's hurt. I think he's the kind of guy who whines about being the man because he wants the money and attention, but he really has no interest in putting the time, work, and effort into being the man. And I think Philly has pretty much hitched their wagon to him being a star and taking them to the next level.
That being said, there is talent on this team: Jrue Holiday is a little overrated but he's not bad; I don't think Evan Turner will be a star, but I think he can be a 1-2 time All Star; Thaddeus Young is a good multi-tool player, I think Jason Richardson has some life left in him, and I think Dorell Wright is a very underrated player. I just think the stink of Bynum is going to end up bringing this team down...but not out of the playoffs down.
7. New York Knicks
Their guards are Fat Raymond Felton, Certifiably Insane JR Smith, and Coming off ACL Surgery Iman Shumpert. Amare can barely even move anymore but he's still going to start, and Melo is refusing to play the 4 even though the only time he plays well is when he's playing there in the Olympics. Mike Woodson, enjoy your last season as Knicks head coach.
The Enigma
6. Chicago Bulls
This is one of those "I'm just putting this team here, but it could go one of several different ways and it's anyone's guess which way". Here are the scenarios for Chicago:
Solid squads
5. Brooklyn Nets
I think we all know how much it pains me to write this of this team. But I have to admit, the Nets has a fantastic offseason, and not just for the reasons you thought they did:
4. Atlanta Hawks
A classic "addition by subtraction". I'm fine with losing Johnson, Williams, and Crawford, who were all overrated, if that means more minutes for Teague and Harris. Add in Lou Williams, who I've always liked in Philly, and Kyle Korver--who will hopefully be doing the three point shooting instead of Josh Smith--and they are perfectly capable replacements for those three. Add in a healthy Al Horford and Josh Smith in a contract year, and even though on paper they look worse than last season, in the end I think the Hawks are still a solid team in the East.
3. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers should be used to this spot: a good team that is a step below the great teams above them. Hell, they even have as their best player a SG/SF who thinks he's on the same level as the game's best player and couldn't be more wrong! Wow! Throw in a good but slightly overrated center...my God, I'm getting Deja Vu, I think I need to sit down...
The Elite
2. Boston Celtics
I love everything Boston did in the offseason. As overrated as JET is, he's head and shoulders above Ray Allen's level last season and is a great fit for this team. I love the addition of Courtney Lee, I like Jeff Green coming back as a solid bench guy, and I like Barbosa and Darko as your 9/10th guys. I even like Jared Sullinger, I think he's going to end up being a 1-2 time All Star since he gets to study at KG's knee, and I think he brings some needed young legs to the team. I think the Celtics did everything right, and the team looks great.
1. Miami Heat
But in the end, I think the first game of the season spoke for itself, and will really be the entire season in a nutshell. With all the Celtics changes, and as well as they played, the Heat still won by 13.
I can talk about Dwayne Wade and Bosh being healthy; that will help, and ignore the "Wade will want to be the man!" naysayers, that won't be a problem--obviously that will be great for the team. I can talk about adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen; while yes, these players are shadows of their former selves, they are still an improvement to this team's bench. But in the end, all that matters is that the Heat has the best player in the game by a wide margin who has figured out how to use all of his skills to their fullest. This team is going to be awesome.
Western Conference coming soon (and no, I wouldn't have had the Lakers in 1st even before all of their struggles).
My God these teams are awful. Just awful.
15. Orlando Magic
I can see half of this team being traded this season. There isn't a team out there who won't need a pure shooter like Redick? Think some playoff team needing a big body won't talk themselves into Big Baby? You know Orlando can't WAIT to get rid of Nelson, Harington, and Hedo. Not only will this team be tanking, but any veteran who starts playing halfway decent will be shipped out as soon as they can get something for him. Good luck Orlando fans.
14. Washington Wizards
There are teams in the East with less talent than the Wizards, but I just get a bad vibe from this team. Okafur is the new Pervis Ellision; he always seems to play on crappy teams. John Wall continues to be a great athlete who seems like he can't figure out how to play basketball. I'm among those not sold on Bradley Beal, and Trevor Ariza is one of those guys who are good on good teams and bad on bad teams. This team still just feels like it's going nowhere.
13. Charlotte Bobcats
I like the younger players on this team. Who doesn't like Kidd-Gilchrest? I think Gerald Henderson is going to be a solid player, and Bismack Biyombo is exciting to watch if nothing else. It's the vets on this team that are going to hold them back. Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Brendan Haywood? Uhhhh. Seriously, if you were fielding a 12 man roster of overpaid and overhyped players who also have piss poor attitudes, Gordon, Thomas, and Haywood would be on it, right? And you could make the case for Sessions? Once again, I say uhhhhh.
12. Detroit Pistons
Every single one of these players is overrated. Every single one! It's unbelievable! Look at this roster:
Rodney Stuckey: How much longer are we going to wait for this guy to be good? This is his 6th year in the league!And I could go on: Charlie V! Corey Maggette! Some Swedish dude named Jonas Jerebko is getting good minutes! And I'm sorry, but how did Andre Drummond go from "stereotypical big guy who is going to waste his talent" to "can't miss NBA rookie!" in 8 preseason games? It's the preseason people. Calm down.
Brandon Knight: Jury is still out here, but I think we can all agree that he is not ready to start this season.
Tayshaun Prince: Prince was a great player, but anyone who thinks he's got anything left in the tank is crae.
Jason Maxiell: Maxiell is not horrible, but let's stop pretending he's a poor man's Ben Wallace. He is a homeless man's Ben Wallace.
Greg Monroe: It makes me sad that Monroe is a starting center in the NBA now.
This team is getting some, "Hey, the Pistons might be surprisingly good!" buzz. Don't buy it. This team sucks.
Really bad, but they do have at least one thing going for them...
11. Cleveland Cavaliers
I hesitate to go this high with the Cavs (and yes it is sad that 11th in the East is considered "this high" for them)--I could see Detroit actually finishing ahead of them--because they are another "they could be suprising!" buzz team, but I buy into it for the Cavs. I agree that Kyrie Irving could be ready to jump into the Top 30, and even though I think that Dion Waiters was overrated just like all Syracuse players are (this is a post in and of itself), I think he will play well next to Irving. Varejao is the perfect hardworking veteran compliment to those guys, and Tyler Zeller and Tristan Thompson will play hard and fun enough to make this team entertaining. Combine that with the fact that Cleveland fans give them a true home court advantage in that they will cheer any improvement since Lebron's departure, and you do sense that this team is on its way up.
Two things make me nervous: 1) Duke players are cursed in the NBA, and Irving has already had a couple of weird injuries in his very young career. If he goes down for long periods of time, this time is battling Orlando for the worst record. 2) The "nice young team that is fun to watch" makes lots of mistakes, and with the exception of Varaejao there are no vets that I really trust on this team. I mean for God's sake, who the Hell is Alonzo Gee?
But in the end, even though the record won't be great, I think the Cavs are fun and get better as the season goes on. This is a squad on the way up.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
The fact that I have the Bucks this close to the playoffs is more of an indictment on how bad the East is then it is an endorsement on how good the Bucks are. This is one of those bad Isiah Thomas-style fantasy league teams where you look at the roster and go, "Wow, there are 10 okay NBA players on this roster...but none of them fit together well." Fortunately (or unfortunately, since that leaves them on the bottom side of the middle) for the Bucks, they play in the East, so they won't get shellacked like they would in the West. In the end, I think the Bucks have enough talent to finish above the worst, but not enough to do anything substantial with it.
9. Toronto Raptors
The East should be ashamed of itself that the Raptors are finishing this high. This is another team that was getting buzz for being better than expected, and my first thought was, "you've got to be kidding me. This team sucks." And while I still stand by that, what I underestimated was how bad the rest of the East was. The East is the classic "someone has to finish in 7th place" (more on that later), so the fact that Toronto is in 9th doesn't mean that Toronto is necessarily moving in the right direction.
The thing that I do think this team has going for it is it has a halfway decent second unit. I think Kyle Lawry is overrated as a starter...but he's not awful, and Jose Caldron as a backup gives you a distinct advantage over the other team's backup. Same thing for DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields at shooting guard. Ed Davis is a nice backup PF (just like his father was). That makes this team a tough out, which gets you way too high in the East.
Things are going to go horribly, horribly wrong for these teams...but you won't really notice, because they'll somehow make the playoffs.
8. Philadelphia 76ers
You now, I could talk a lot about the Sixers problems, but in the end the answer is this: I am not an Andrew Bynum believer. I'm just not. I think he's a guy who is almost always going to be hurt, and when he's not happy--which is often--he's going to say he's hurt. I think he's the kind of guy who whines about being the man because he wants the money and attention, but he really has no interest in putting the time, work, and effort into being the man. And I think Philly has pretty much hitched their wagon to him being a star and taking them to the next level.
That being said, there is talent on this team: Jrue Holiday is a little overrated but he's not bad; I don't think Evan Turner will be a star, but I think he can be a 1-2 time All Star; Thaddeus Young is a good multi-tool player, I think Jason Richardson has some life left in him, and I think Dorell Wright is a very underrated player. I just think the stink of Bynum is going to end up bringing this team down...but not out of the playoffs down.
7. New York Knicks
Their guards are Fat Raymond Felton, Certifiably Insane JR Smith, and Coming off ACL Surgery Iman Shumpert. Amare can barely even move anymore but he's still going to start, and Melo is refusing to play the 4 even though the only time he plays well is when he's playing there in the Olympics. Mike Woodson, enjoy your last season as Knicks head coach.
The Enigma
6. Chicago Bulls
This is one of those "I'm just putting this team here, but it could go one of several different ways and it's anyone's guess which way". Here are the scenarios for Chicago:
* Rose comes back early--like January--and is his old dominant self. Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli finally start playing to some of the promise they had as rookies and are affective bench players. Joakhim Noah isn't a dominant scorer, but has figured out how to average 12-15 points a game and establishes himself as someone who must actually be guarded on offense. This is the least likely scenario.In the end, I think the middle scenario is what happens. But I think the last scenario is the smart move. The fact is is that Deng, Boozer, and Noah are all overrated players. The reason this Bulls team was so good was Rose and a really good bench. The Bulls now have neither of those.
* Rose comes back in February, but isn't the same player yet. This is a guy who relies on pure athleticism more than anyone in the league right now except for Russell Westbrook, and a crippling knee injury is going to take some time for him to recover from. He's okay, but not great. The bench is not nearly as good as it has been: Gipson is still good, but Nate Robinson is just okay whereas CJ Watson was a fantastic backup point, and Marco Belinelli is still just some Italian guy playing basketball. The East sucks so they finish around 6th, but they are a quick first round out and obviously Rose needs more time and the roster needs to improve.
* The season is a complete disaster. The bench is awful compared to last season: the losses of Asik and Watson--especially Watson with Rose being out--kill the team. There's no scoring without Rose. Deng and Boozer have their usual injury stretches, but without Rose to cover for them it kills the team. Rose is ready to come back in February, but the Bulls see that the season is over and know he isn't 100% ready, so they make him sit the entire season. The Bulls take a page from the Spurs playbook, pack it in, and gun for a top 3 draft pick to team alongside Rose.
Solid squads
5. Brooklyn Nets
I think we all know how much it pains me to write this of this team. But I have to admit, the Nets has a fantastic offseason, and not just for the reasons you thought they did:
* Is Joe Johnson overrated? Yes, he is. But if you don't really care about money--which Prokorov obviously doesn't--then he is still a top 10 shooting guard in the league. Same for Gerald Wallace, except make that Top 20 small forward instead of Top 10. These guys aren't great, but they're not bad either.It's amazing what you can do when money ain't a thing, isn't it?
* The Nets did the opposite of the Bulls: they did a fantastic job rounding out their bench. CJ Watson might be the best backup point guard in the league. Reggie Evans can't score to save his life, but he is a fantastic rebounder and defender, a great teammate, and a guy who brings solid playoff experience to this team. And as much as a joke as Andray Blatche might be, he is a good 9/10th man: he's a big body to toss in there, and if he ever manages to put his talent together, it's great. If he doesn't, who cares, he's your 10th man. Add to that moving MarShon Brooks to the bench where he can contribute (a classic bad starter but good bench player kind of talent), and this bench makes up for the slightly overrated Johnson/Wallace/Humphries/Lopez starting 5.
* I think most people have forgotten how good Deron Williams was before he came to New Jersey. He was unquestionably a top 5 point guard in the league, and probably top three. He took it easy the last two years because this was a crap team that was going nowhere. But watching him play in the Olympics over the summer, where he was essentially the team's 6th man, and seeing how good he is with other good players around him made you remember that this guy is not done. Now he's got a talented team and an exciting new arena, and one of his biggest competitors both in his conference and at his position is out. He's going to have a fantastic season.
4. Atlanta Hawks
A classic "addition by subtraction". I'm fine with losing Johnson, Williams, and Crawford, who were all overrated, if that means more minutes for Teague and Harris. Add in Lou Williams, who I've always liked in Philly, and Kyle Korver--who will hopefully be doing the three point shooting instead of Josh Smith--and they are perfectly capable replacements for those three. Add in a healthy Al Horford and Josh Smith in a contract year, and even though on paper they look worse than last season, in the end I think the Hawks are still a solid team in the East.
3. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers should be used to this spot: a good team that is a step below the great teams above them. Hell, they even have as their best player a SG/SF who thinks he's on the same level as the game's best player and couldn't be more wrong! Wow! Throw in a good but slightly overrated center...my God, I'm getting Deja Vu, I think I need to sit down...
The Elite
2. Boston Celtics
I love everything Boston did in the offseason. As overrated as JET is, he's head and shoulders above Ray Allen's level last season and is a great fit for this team. I love the addition of Courtney Lee, I like Jeff Green coming back as a solid bench guy, and I like Barbosa and Darko as your 9/10th guys. I even like Jared Sullinger, I think he's going to end up being a 1-2 time All Star since he gets to study at KG's knee, and I think he brings some needed young legs to the team. I think the Celtics did everything right, and the team looks great.
1. Miami Heat
But in the end, I think the first game of the season spoke for itself, and will really be the entire season in a nutshell. With all the Celtics changes, and as well as they played, the Heat still won by 13.
I can talk about Dwayne Wade and Bosh being healthy; that will help, and ignore the "Wade will want to be the man!" naysayers, that won't be a problem--obviously that will be great for the team. I can talk about adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen; while yes, these players are shadows of their former selves, they are still an improvement to this team's bench. But in the end, all that matters is that the Heat has the best player in the game by a wide margin who has figured out how to use all of his skills to their fullest. This team is going to be awesome.
Western Conference coming soon (and no, I wouldn't have had the Lakers in 1st even before all of their struggles).
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 12:30 AM
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