2011 NBA Review

In a season like no other for me, Mike (not me) suggested that I do something new for my postseason thoughts: compare my preseason picks to the postseason results. Thanks for the great idea Mike. Here are links to my Eastern and Western Conference previews if you'd like to read them, and--if I might be so bold--I think I did a pretty good job calling the season. Here's the details:

15th Place
My Prediction: Minnesota & Toronto
Actual: Minnesota & Cleveland

Nothing too shocking here. Toronto finished in 14th place instead of 15th, and both teams should be about the same next year because this draft really isn't helping much of anything.

14th Place
My Prediction: Sacramento & Detroit
Actual: Sacramento & Toronto

While Detroit did do better than I thought--finishing in 11th place--they were still awful and made news only by staging a walkout on their coach. Top notch work fellas. Sacramento was pretty much exactly what I said they were, and it's only going to get better next season when Jimmer joins Evans & Cousins. I'm going to watch Sacramento games to see when the Kings are going to get into a bench clearing brawl with each other.

13th Place
My Prediction: Golden State & New Jersey
Actual: LA Clippers & Washington

I had Golden State & New Jersey one spot off (coming up next at 12), and even though I had Washington 10th, the only team that below them that should have been insulted was Philly (New Jersey only finished one game ahead of them, and as we just discussed, Detroit was still awful even if they did finish better). The thing to talk about here is the Clippers. I know, I know, they're the Clippers, and even with Blake Griffin they will probably always be the Clippers, but it still shocks me that this team finished 13th. Griffin was fantastic, DeAndre Jordan shocked everyone by proving to be a decent center, Eric Gordon was great--though he did miss a lot of time with injuries--and Erik Bledsoe showed he could be a good point guard in this league. Were this anyone but the Clippers, there would be Portland/OKC hype of four years ago around this team. In spite of that, I still think they have to make the playoffs next season...right? I mean, they're just too good...oh well. Same old story.

12th Place
My Prediction: Memphis & Cleveland
Actual: Golden State & New Jersey

Obviously missed fairly big on Memphis, but go back and read what I wrote. Congrats to them for actually pulling off the "if they could only do this" scenarios; they turned out to be a good, young, tough throwback kind of team with a true center and power forward. Here's the question though: can they do it again next year? I'm willing to trust ZBo at this point (who wants to bet money that sentence will bite me in the ass next year), but I won't count on Tony Allen to play as well as he did last year. Throw in Marc Gasol's probable departure and the fact that I'm still not convinced Mike Conley is a playoff point guard (he's the guy who does just enough to leave you hoping and not get rid of him, but will never get you anywhere--see him going 3-13 in the Triple OT game against OKC, but hitting the shot at the buzzer to get them into the Third OT, which they ultimately lost). I won't give Cleveland a hard time here for showing no heart whatsoever (especially you, Antwan Jamison) since they threw the Mavs a parade when they won.

11th Place
My Prediction: LA Clippers & Philly
Actual: Utah & Detroit

Wow. Old reliable sure did fall. I think the Jazz are going to end up being bad for a long time now; no free agent is going to want to come there unless they are overpaid, and the Jazz are about to learn the hard way that the modern NBA coaching carousel is no fun. The Jazz mystique is gone. Congrats to Philly, another team that pulled off the "if everything goes right, we can make the playoffs" bit.

10th Place
My Prediction: Denver & Washington
Actual: Phoenix & Charlotte

First, Denver. Fantastic job by that bunch for doing the complete opposite of Cleveland: banding together after their star left, refusing to die, and getting the most out of every player on the roster. They went from one of the most unlikeable teams in the league (sorry Eazy) to one of the funnest to watch and definitely one you rooted for if they weren't playing your squad (you're welcome Eazy). I can't imagine then they can pull this off next season and make the playoffs (sorry Eazy), but they'll be tough every night, and I'll be rooting for them, which is more than most fans can expect from a team in a situation like this.

And Eastern Conference, you should be embarrassed that Charlotte finished this high.

9th Place
My Prediction: New Orleans & Charlotte
Actual: Houston & Milwaukee

Pretty dead on here--missed Charlotte, Phoenix, & Milwaukee by one, and Houston & New Orleans by two. NO had a healthy CP3 so they finished higher (again, see my preseason comments), and Houston lost Yao for even longer so they were lower. I feel like Houston should have been a bit better than they were, but just by a bit, and we're getting into the competitive part of the West so it's tough.

How great & sad was it seeing Little Stevie Nash cheering Dirk on in the Finals? It was great in this is why everyone loves him, because he's a good guy who was there to cheer his buddy on, which doesn't happen very often in the NBA. It was sad because in spite of the fact that Robert Sarver has run the Suns into the ground, he will NEVER let Steve Nash go finish his career on another team because he knows that A) Steve Nash is too classy to insist on being traded and B) that Steve Nash is basically Phoenix's only draw. Welcome to the Hell of Mediocre, Phoenix.

8th Place
My Prediction: Phoenix & Milwaukee
Actual: Memphis & Indiana

Not much to say here that hasn't been said. Indiana is going to love the George Hill pickup. I don't think Kawhi Leonard is going to be anything special at all, and I absolutely think Hill can be a starting guard for a championship team.

7th Place
My Prediction: Houston & Indiana
Actual: New Orleans & Philly

Again, not much to say here, so I'll just make a comment about Iggy: count me among the "he'd be an awesome #2, it's too bad he's in a place he has to be a #1" guy. Seriously, the guy is like a clone of Scottie Pipen.

6th Place
My Prediction: Portland & New York
Actual: Portland & New York

Ah yeah. And so much to say about these two!

First, Portland. You've got to respect this team. LaMarcus Aldridge was absolutely outstanding this season and should have been an All Star (over Gasol & Yao), and did an outstanding job of putting the team on his back after career-ending injuries to Oden and Roy (more on this later). Wes Mathews did the opposite of most free agents: he landed his big money contract and then went out and proved he deserved it. Andre Miller put his differences with Nate McMillan aside and did a good job leading the team, and Portland not only made the playoffs but played one of the toughest series against the NBA Champions. Roy also got every bit of production he possibly could out of his body, which was admirable to watch.

That being said, Portland is unquestionably finished after being a team that had a chance to dominate the NBA for years. Oden is exactly what I thought he would be: a nice guy who you want to succeed but never will, and even worse, the "we could have had Durant" cloud will haunt the franchise. Portland got a coupla great years out of Roy, but unfortunately the knee trouble that was a concern when he was drafted (and if anyone tries to say, "See, they should have never drafted Roy! I knew his knees would be bad!" punch them in the face. That was a crappy draft and the years they got out of Roy were better than anything Randy Foye or anyone else could have got them) has doomed his career. You watch him play, and he obviously has nothing left. Portland never did anything substantial with the extra cap space they had a coupla years ago, and many of their "talented" young players either didn't yield good trade returns or haven't turned out to be that great (will everyone stop talking about Nicholaus Batum? I cheered every time he put up a shot against the Mavs in the playoffs. The guy doesn't have it.). As I've mentioned before, they're in the KG Minnesota years of too good to every get better, but too bad to every do anything substantial.

As for New York...what a year. Amare and the MSG crowd (again, even more important that Amare) did a great job of invigorating the Knicks. Along with Melo, entertaining basketball is back in New York.

Notice, however, I said "entertaining" and not "good". In a way, it's ironic that they finished together because I feel like they're like Portland: stuck in that tweener stage, too good to get better players, too bad to do anything substantial. If you're looking forward to entertaining basketball being back in New York, you've got it. But the Knicks will never get out of the second round with a core of Amare and Melo (the worst defensive forwards in basketball), no matter who they bring in at point guard.

5th Place
My Prediction: San Antonio & Atlanta
Actual: Denver & Atlanta

In a roundabout way, I nailed both of these teams. "But the Spurs finished in first place", you say. "How did you 'nail them'?" Read what I wrote. SA did an admirable job of holding on to the one seed in the regular season, which I did not think they would do. That being said, they ended up doing exactly what I predicted, just slightly later than I thought: flaming out in the end because they shot their wad too soon. And please don't say anything about what a "bad matchup" Memphis was for them--which, I'll give you some credit, it was. That being said though, did you feel like the team that played in the first round could have beat the Lakers? Mavs? OKC? Even Portland I think could have taken out SA in the first round. So before we go to far with the "it was just a bad matchup", let's take a good, hard look at this team, and instead realize that the regular season--which was primarily their hot start--was the last gasp from them.

And I can't believe they traded George Hill. Awful, awful trade.

Atlanta...well, you did better in the playoffs than I thought you would. That was basically just because Jamaal Crawford got hot against Orlando, but hey whatever, good job.

4th Place
My Prediction: Utah & Chicago
Actual: OKC & Orlando

I can't believe I picked Orlando for first place. I should have picked Boston.

Even though it was a pretty disappointing season for Orlando, kudos to Dwight Howard. He finally showed up looking like he'd worked on his offensive game in the summer, and he absolutely crushed Atlanta in the playoffs. This was basically the first season that I felt that Orlando was holding Howard back instead of Howard holding Howard back. With all due respect to Orlando fans, they need to figure out that Jameer Nelson isn't a point guard and put a coupla good players around him instead of a plethora of mediocre ones who choke in big moments (see Carter, Vince), or he should leave for somewhere that will take advantage of his prime.

As for Chicago, amazing job by Rose (obviously), who did deserve the MVP award. His ridiculously good play overshadowed how much Boozer sucked, how unbelievably bad their shooting guards sucked, and how one dimensional Noah is (he'd been tabbed as underrated so often before the season he'd become overrated; as good of a defender and rebounder as he is, you're not an elite center when you only score 4 points a game against good teams.). You want proof Rose was the MVP? Looking back on Chicago's season, with the exception of Rose, Chicago should have been fourth, and yet they pulled off first almost entirely because of him (Deng played well too). Good for him.

3rd Place
My Prediction: Dallas & Miami
Actual: Dallas & Boston

Good calls here. Boston & Miami flip flopped.

I still don't know what to think of Miami's season. The regular season is pretty much exactly what I predicted it would be: coupla down parts as the team gelled, but mostly dominant play. The playoffs then started as I feared: a team that was built for the playoffs just slamming it's way through...til the end (the beautiful, beautiful end). I think, in the end, that's why Miami's season feels like such a failure (outside of the obvious reasons): they--and Lebron in particular--played so well in the playoffs until they hit the Mavs, and even the most diehard of Mavs fans have to admit that they should have played better in the Finals.

In the end, I think the lockout will help Miami more than any other team. They're young enough that it won't chip away at their primes. It will give everyone something else to talk about outside of the Miami Heat. It will lead to a weird, shortened season that I think they will be better suited to take advantage of than others. There was nothing wrong with Miami's first season together...and yet there was something wrong with Miami's first season together.

2nd Place
My Prediction: LA Lakers & Boston
Actual: LA Lakers & Miami

Not too much to say for LA. You saw the beginning of the end last season. The end is still a long way off, but it's coming (thank God).

The same can be said for Boston, especially because of the Perkins trade. Boston should have done what the Mavs are doing with Dirk: try to squeeze every last bit out of the Big Three while they can, and just accept the fact that they are going to suck when those guys do finally walk away. Instead, they got cute and tried to swing for the fences by winning now and being better later, and they failed miserably because of the obvious (they lost now) and the inevitable (if Jeff Green is your future star, you're in trouble). So pay attention Marc & Donnie: don't try to get better and younger, just try to win as many as you can with Dirk, and rebuild once he's gone and we've bottomed out.

1st Place
My Prediction: OKC & Orlando
Actual: San Antonio & Chicago

What a roller coaster for OKC. Westbrook started out the season on fire...and then we learn that he's probably an egomanical ass who's going to Stephon Marbury this team. Westbrook has the worst shot selection I've seen since Iverson & Marbury, and count me among those who think this is a problem that isn't going away. If I were Sam Presti, I'd give him the lockout season to see if he can take a look in the mirror and accept the fact that he's a great #2 and a shitty #1, and if he can't, I'd ship him quickly and quietly while he still has value. Too bad, because this was a great, fun team that looked like it was awesome to root for.

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And finally...

Your Dallas Mavericks.

Your NBA FRICKING CHAMPION DALLAS MAVERICKS!

Honestly, I still don't even know what to write here. I think I want to just talk about the people: I'm happy for Tyson Chandler, who's a good guy who's dealt with injuries and unfair expectations throughout his career, and not only made the promise land, but was a difference maker when finally asked to fill the right role. I'm happy for JJ Barea, who most people--even in Dallas--didn't believe in, but proved that sometimes all you need is that "something" that makes you stand out. I'm happy for Donnie, who can move out of his father's shadow--which was never fair, because his father is a fool--and carve his own niche. I'm happy for Cuban, because he did what nobody though was possible for him to do: shut up and let his kids grow up and do their thing, the one thing that was holding him back from being one of the greatest owners in any sport. I'm happy for Dallas for finally seeing some returns on Jason Terry--the most annoying Maverick ever--but hey, all of your past crap is forgiven because you finally stepped up when it mattered.

But obviously, like everyone, I'm so happy for Dirk. It's not often in modern sports that the great guy pulls off the unbelievable story and gets what is truly the most important thing for him, but that's exactly what happened. I'm as happy that Dirk will now go down as one of the All Time Greats as I am the fact that the Dallas Mavericks have joined the list of NBA Champions.

I will analyze it more later, but I still just want to enjoy it. Just sit back, relax, and know that my squad is the NBA Champion.

It's fantastic.