2012 Western Conference Preview
Western Conference preview. And sadly, I'm not using the first few weeks of the season to help my projections because I've barely had time to watch.
The Bad
15. New Orleans Hornets
The classic "bad but up and coming team". Count me among those who think The Unibrow is a future star. I think Austin Rivers will be a good scoring 6th man/borderline All Star someday, and Robin Lopez and Ryan Anderson are solid starters on a playoff team. There are two reasons I don't have this team higher: 1) they're not only young and dumb, but I don't think the Hornets even care about trying to win this year, they just want to see the players grow, so they will lose games they could win just to let the kids play, and 2) at what point do Eric Gordon's injury issues become a long term concern? I think he is a very good shooting guard and can become a couple of time All Star, but only if he's on the court. At some point that is an issue, right? But this season that won't really matter.
The Ugly
14. Sacramento Kings
Wow. WOW! This team is so horribly assembled it's actually amusing. This is classic train wreck/NASCAR crash syndrome. I know it's early, but let's pull out the BPL (bullet point list...how did I not go with that acronym years ago???) already:
13. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is in the horrible position of having a roster full of players who are just good enough to think they should all be playing, but none of them are actually good enough to play. Here's the list of players who are good enough to get minutes on an NBA team: Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat, Shannon Brown, Wesley Johnson, Markieff Morris, and Channing Frye. Unfortunately, that's 9 players right there, and of that, 4 could only start on bad teams, 1 would be a nice 7th or 8th man on a playoff team, 2 are bench players on a bad team, and 2 only get to play on a bad team because they're young. Throw in Bassy Telfair and Jermaine O'Neal--two players who shouldn't be playing anywhere, but are delusional enough to think that they should--and you have 11 players who want minutes when none are even good enough to start for a playoff team. Uhhhhh...that's not good.
The Fantasy Teams
12. Golden State
Golden State is one of the teams--for what seems to be the 30th time in 10 years, which I know is impossible but still feels that way--that is getting, "Hey, these guys might actually be pretty good!" buzz. Let me set the record straight: they are not. Look pundits, I understand where you're coming from. This is a nice little fantasy team; it does look really good on paper, and not just for the talent, but in the, "if you squint hard enough, these guys can actually play together!". But you're reaching and not grabbing here, and I'll tell you why:
11. Portland Trailblazers
So Golden State was the bad fantasy team; Portland is the good fantasy team. The starting five for Portland is actually pretty good. I'm not a Nicolaus Batum fan, and a rookie point guard is a rookie point guard, but Lamarcus Aldridge is a bona fide All Star, and I like Wes Mathews and JJ Hickson more than most people. So you're starting five isn't bad...and then you look at the bench. Good God. Jared Jeffries is your 6th man? Sasha Pavlovic will get good minutes? Ronnie Price? We all know these guy's names, but that doesn't mean that they're good. And when that is the core of your bench, well, then...crap.
The "Too Bad We're Not In the East" Teams
10. Utah Jazz
I could see the Jazz as a playoff team, and yes, we have entered into the "these teams would be a LOCK to make the playoffs in the East" territory. I've got them down here because in the end, I think several of their players are overrated. Mo Williams could only be a starting point guard on a playoff team when he was playing with the best player in the game. I'm going to go with Gordon Haywood as the Poor Man's Mike Dunlevey (uh) rather than as Jeff Hornacek 2.0, and for a starter, let's just say that's not good. Marvin Williams is who he is: a dime a dozen SF/SG in the NBA that won't kill you, but won't ever do anything for you. Millsap and Jefferson are both borderline All Stars, but I can't shake the feeling that in the end they really play the same position. The bench is solid but not noteworthy. This is a vintage Jazz team: they're tough, and they're going to compete every night. In the end though, they're better than the bad teams but not better than the good teams, and I think they will be close to the playoffs but not quite make it their in the end. If anyone slips, however, they'll be waiting.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Count me among those who really like the Wolves roster. Obviously Rubio and Love are great; more doesn't need to be said of them. I really like the pickups of Brandon Roy and AK47; while neither of these guys are stars anymore, they are both improvements over what you had last year, and are solid professionals who will help teach the young players on this team how to play. The bench is filled with not only top notch bench players but guys who are fine coming off the bench and will play hard while doing so; Barea, Stiemsma, and Admundson are great bench players who play hard every night and bring great playoff experience to this team; Budinger and Ridnoir do the same just without the playoff experience. On paper, this isn't just a playoff team, this is an up and coming team that is will push a 2 or 3 seed to 6 or 7 games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the dreaded I word will keep this team from doing that. This team just can't overcome missing at least 20 games each from Rubio and Love in the ultracompetitive West. Throw in the fact that Roy and AK47 will have fantastic seasons if they make it to 70 games and it's just too much for the Wolves to overcome in the end. The good news is I think the Wolves are smart enough to realize that about this season, and will make sure their young players come back healthy rather than rush them back (I know I'm giving KAHHHHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!! a lot of credit there, but I get that sense from this team), and will enjoy competing for a playoff spot in the last week of the season.
The Feel Good Story
8. Houston Rockets
This is probably too high for this Rockets team. Looking at them on paper, it's definitely too high; the overall talent on this team is less than that of Minny and Utah. However, every season there's a team that just has it, and just plays better than they should, and rides that momentum though the season. I get that feeling from the Rockets this year. Do I think Harden and Lin are overrated? Yes, but I think they aren't as overrated as the media gave them credit for being, and both are in major F You mode and want to show the league that they are much better than given credit for being. I think Omer Asik is very underrated, and I think he was a great addition to this team. I think Daequon Cook and Toney Douglas are solid bench players, and I know he does this every time there's an international competition and it rarely amounts to much in the NBA...but man I thought Carlos Delfino looked FANTASTIC in the Olympics. If he carries just a bit of that to the Houston bench, then their guard rotation is in great shape. This team has warts: outside of Asik, their bigs are a joke. There isn't really a backup point guard on the roster; Toney Douglas is really more of a 2 than a point. And as much as they want to prove that they can carry a team every night, there is legitimate reason to question whether Harden and Lin can actually do so. But in the end, I think this team has the right combination of talent, "Nobody believed in us!", and momentum to carry them into the playoffs.
The Unexpected
7. Your Dallas Mavericks!
Don't believe what you've heard: the Mavs offseason was bad (don't believe Cuban when he tells you it wasn't), but not a complete disaster (don't believe the media when they tell you it was). Sure, you would be correct in making fun of this team as the 2006 All Stars (seriously, look it up), but the fact is that Marion, Carter, Brand, and Kaman do have something left in the tank. Collison and Mayo are not a great starting backcourt, but they are a solid one, and Roddy, Brandan Wright, and Jae Crowder coming off the bench is a solid bench. There are lots of reasons not to pick the Mavs to not reach the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they are hit by injuries if they slide all the way to 10th. But in the end, Dirk is still a top 10 player in the league. This team is still good enough that if Dirk is his usual healthy self when he comes back from his knee injury, this team will not slide out of the playoffs, which is a lot better than a lot of people thought they would be. In the end, trust in the savvy vets.
6. LA Clippers
I've got a bad feeling about the Clippers this season. In a way, the Clippers remind me of the Suns, not in their talent but in the sense that way too many people are going to expect playing time on this team. Here's the list of guys who think they should be playing on this team: CP3, Willie Green (how is he still starting in the NBA?), Tough Juice, Blake Griffin (we need a nickname for him, and no, I'm not going with "The Ginger"), DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Jamaal Crawford, Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups...Hell, even Ryan Hollins is thinking that he played playoff minutes for the Celtics last season. Ummmmmm...that's 13 people. The good news is, that yes, there is a lot of talent there. The bad news is, it's almost harder to have too many talented people to play than it is untalented people. To handle a situation like this and keep the team from imploding, you need a really good coach and a really strong organization that can establish a culture that says winning is more important than anything, and the culture needs to be respected and even a little feared by the players themselves. Unfortunately, their head coach is arguably the worst head coach in the NBA, and in spite of their success last season this is still one of the least respected organizations in all of sports, not just the NBA. Throw in the fact that CP3 still hasn't signed an extension--which thusfar people have ignored, and I really don't understand why--and if the going ever gets tough on this team, I think this can get really bad really quickly. I think this team is too talented to fall much past 6th, but I get the complete opposite vibe for the Clips that I get from the Rockets: I feel like Momentum is against them this year. In the end, it's going to be the usual wild ride for the Clips.
5. Denver Nuggets
I like the idea behind the Nuggets. "Look, with the mountains in a game based on nonstop running, we have potentially the biggest homecourt advantage in sports. So let's just put a bunch of good but not great players out there, and run the shit out of the opposition." It's a sound theory, and thanks to the Nuggets pulling a Ewing Theory (tm Sports Guy) last season, everyone is on board with the nuggets. I have two problems with the Nuggets: 1) the Nuggets have tried the run them out of the mountains" before in the late 80's, and it didn't work then. Like I said, it's not a bad plan, and the players on the roster now are better than it they were back then, but as a long term playoff strategy I'm not a believer. 2) Everything broke right for the Nuggets last season. Everything. You know me if you read this blog, I believe in Yin and Yang, so if everything broke right for the Nuggets last season, some things are going to go wrong this season. And when you don't have an elite player to plug the holes, when things go wrong it can get bad quickly. Don't get me wrong; 5th place in the West is an impressive achievement. But some pundits are seeing the Nuggets as a dark horse title contender, and I think that's a little crazy.
The Flawed
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Griz are bringing back essentially the same team (the OJ Mayo loss will hurt some; a healthy ZBo will help some, so it all evens out in the end). I think they're about the same again: a tough second round out, but a second round out. This is a very good team that just doesn't have the backcourt to be a great team.
3. LA Lakers
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH yes. The Lakers. What an exciting season it's been already. So many things to note here:
The Western Enigma
2. OKC Thunder
So the Harden trade. I really don't know how I feel about that. The biggest problem is that I hate Harden probably more than any player in the NBA right now. I don't need to go into why, you've heard me rant about it before. The question is, how good is he? It's undeniable what a valuable X Factor he turned himself into in the last two seasons. He was fantastic off the bench in all of the Thunder's playoff series except one. He'd improved dramatically from his first couple of years in the league, and carved himself out as a valuable member of this team.
That being said, when the Thunder needed him most, he completely disappeared in The Finals against the Heat. His performance there was nothing short of embarrassing. That's okay, you thought. It was his first time there, maybe it was just jitters. But then on the Olympic team--an Olympic team that was missing several other guards that would have been there over him--Harden also looked awful. He was unquestionably the worst player on the team, and the one that made you say the most, "wow, he looks like he really doesn't belong with these guys" (and yes, that includes The Unibrow. Unibrow looked raw at times but played surprisingly well for a college player, and you could easily see the potential there. Harden just looked pathetic out there). So if you're trying to put together a team that can beat the Miami Heat--a team that has three players that truly belonged on that Olympic roster--how can you not watch those two performances and then come away thinking, "We can't pay this guy like he's one of them, because he most certainly is not."
In the end, I think they should have kept Harden, and deal with the fallout next year. This team was a favorite to compete for the title this season, and you don't miss that chance. You never know when a guy can land funny (see Rose, Derrick), and so if you've got the chance you go for it. That being said, the Thunder did a good job of getting something back for Harden. Kevin Martin has played for bad teams so long you forgot that he was recently a borderline All Star. If your young players (Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Reggie Jackson) give you anything, and if Eric Maynor can play well enough to be the 4th quarter point guard of a championship team (moving Westbrook to his real position of shooting guard), then this is still a team that can compete for a championship. I think we're so used to stars--using the term loosely for Harden--traded for little in return that that's what many assumed happened here. But I think OKC got at least $.75 on the dollar for Harden. If anyone else can step up, they can fill that void.
What makes this so fascinating though is that this was truly a What If trade. Time won't tell who was right on this one (unless OKC wins a title); there were no guarantees either way. If KD gets a title in his career, then it was the right move. If not, then we'll always wonder.
The Old Faithful
1. San Antonio Spurs
I don't think I even need to say anything here, do I?
There's your regular season kids. The lesson, as always: the NBA.....it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!
The Bad
15. New Orleans Hornets
The classic "bad but up and coming team". Count me among those who think The Unibrow is a future star. I think Austin Rivers will be a good scoring 6th man/borderline All Star someday, and Robin Lopez and Ryan Anderson are solid starters on a playoff team. There are two reasons I don't have this team higher: 1) they're not only young and dumb, but I don't think the Hornets even care about trying to win this year, they just want to see the players grow, so they will lose games they could win just to let the kids play, and 2) at what point do Eric Gordon's injury issues become a long term concern? I think he is a very good shooting guard and can become a couple of time All Star, but only if he's on the court. At some point that is an issue, right? But this season that won't really matter.
The Ugly
14. Sacramento Kings
Wow. WOW! This team is so horribly assembled it's actually amusing. This is classic train wreck/NASCAR crash syndrome. I know it's early, but let's pull out the BPL (bullet point list...how did I not go with that acronym years ago???) already:
! This team's guards are literally the pickup hoops guards from Hell. Tyreke Evans. Aaron Brooks. Jimmer Ferdette. Forget point guards; if you made a list of "guards who if they bring the ball up past half court, they are shooting it, no question" those three are the top three on the list! And they're all on the same team! That's your guard rotation! Well, except for Isiah Thomas, which leads me to my next point...Enjoy the ride, Kings fans. I can't wait for Tyreke Evans and Aaron Brooks to try to start stealing the ball from each other in the backcourt when they take it up on offense.
! Even I had two look up two--TWO!--of their starters. Who the f are Isiah Thomas and James Johnson? Seriously? They're starting for you? I've never heard of these guys! My first thought when I heard Isiah Thomas was, "I don't know which would be worse: a 50ish year old real Isiah Thomas coming back to the NBA, or some guy who shares the name with a famous basketball player that is so bad that I've never heard of him." And who knows, maybe he's a shoot first guard too! I have no idea!
! You know, I actually like the train wreck that is DeMarcus Cousins, and here's why: he's kind of the lone throwback to the Post-Jordan era stars that almost ruined the NBA, the Derick Coleman/Shawn Kemp/Allen Iverson/Stephon Marbury/Alonzo Mourning (it always amused me that he played so long in the NBA that everyone eventually forgot what a dick he was in his youth)/Larry Johnson (it pains me to say that) era, where all of the stars got too much money too soon and all acted like assholes. The modern NBA star might make occasional bad PR moves (see "The Decision") or we might be able to tell that he's really a dick and is just putting on a good show (see Dwayne Wade), but you really take for granted how professional and likeable the current young NBA star is (see Durant, Kevin). DeMarcus Cousins is like the reminder of the way things used to be, and helps you to appreciate how not certifiably crazy the NBA is right now.
13. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is in the horrible position of having a roster full of players who are just good enough to think they should all be playing, but none of them are actually good enough to play. Here's the list of players who are good enough to get minutes on an NBA team: Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat, Shannon Brown, Wesley Johnson, Markieff Morris, and Channing Frye. Unfortunately, that's 9 players right there, and of that, 4 could only start on bad teams, 1 would be a nice 7th or 8th man on a playoff team, 2 are bench players on a bad team, and 2 only get to play on a bad team because they're young. Throw in Bassy Telfair and Jermaine O'Neal--two players who shouldn't be playing anywhere, but are delusional enough to think that they should--and you have 11 players who want minutes when none are even good enough to start for a playoff team. Uhhhhh...that's not good.
The Fantasy Teams
12. Golden State
Golden State is one of the teams--for what seems to be the 30th time in 10 years, which I know is impossible but still feels that way--that is getting, "Hey, these guys might actually be pretty good!" buzz. Let me set the record straight: they are not. Look pundits, I understand where you're coming from. This is a nice little fantasy team; it does look really good on paper, and not just for the talent, but in the, "if you squint hard enough, these guys can actually play together!". But you're reaching and not grabbing here, and I'll tell you why:
* Most of these guys are HORRIBLE defender. Curry and David Lee couldn't stop anyone even if they pretended to try, and Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, and Carl Landry aren't exactly known as defensive stoppers either. "But wait!" they say. "They've got Andrew Bogut now!" Uh huh. First of all, when did Andrew Bogut become the next Bill Russell? Bogut is a nice post defender, but I've never seen nor heard of him being a great help side defender, which is what the Warriors would need to have a chance in Hell of slowing anyone down. While Bogut is an improvement over what they had (which was essentially nothing), improvement in an area does not mean that the problem is solved. Sorry kids. Besides, how many games do we actually think Bogut is going to play this season? Which once again leads me into our next point...So again, I can see if you're looking for hope for this team you don't dive into the details and you can fool yourself into thinking, "Hey, this team might be good!" But it's not good, and it's not going to be good. Sorry people.
* These guys are ALWAYS injured. How many times has Bogut played over 80 games in a season? Once...his rookie year. He's only played over 70 games twice. Curry? Also once, and he's coming off a 26 game season last year. David Lee has never made it to 75 games as a Warrior. Does anyone think Thompson or Barnes will actually get in 75 games this season? For a team with a very mediocre bench, this does not bode well. However, their biggest problems is that when you look at these names...
* These guys are actually OVERRATED. Look, I know everyone likes Curry because he's a nice guy, and he's got the short-slight-hardworker thing going for him that the average fan loves. But Stephon Curry will never be an All Star in this league as a starter. Everyone agreed that Harrison Barnes was one of the most overrated players in college; how is this going to translate well to the NBA? Andrew Bogut is a top five center in the NBA, it's true...and his career averages are 12.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a game. Please see my earlier comments about how far the center position has fallen. David Lee is a nice offensive player, but is horrible defensively. Consider me very unconvinced that Klay Thompson is a rising star (to say the least). The fact is that every single one of these players has either significant warts in his game or is just flat out overrated. Period.
11. Portland Trailblazers
So Golden State was the bad fantasy team; Portland is the good fantasy team. The starting five for Portland is actually pretty good. I'm not a Nicolaus Batum fan, and a rookie point guard is a rookie point guard, but Lamarcus Aldridge is a bona fide All Star, and I like Wes Mathews and JJ Hickson more than most people. So you're starting five isn't bad...and then you look at the bench. Good God. Jared Jeffries is your 6th man? Sasha Pavlovic will get good minutes? Ronnie Price? We all know these guy's names, but that doesn't mean that they're good. And when that is the core of your bench, well, then...crap.
The "Too Bad We're Not In the East" Teams
10. Utah Jazz
I could see the Jazz as a playoff team, and yes, we have entered into the "these teams would be a LOCK to make the playoffs in the East" territory. I've got them down here because in the end, I think several of their players are overrated. Mo Williams could only be a starting point guard on a playoff team when he was playing with the best player in the game. I'm going to go with Gordon Haywood as the Poor Man's Mike Dunlevey (uh) rather than as Jeff Hornacek 2.0, and for a starter, let's just say that's not good. Marvin Williams is who he is: a dime a dozen SF/SG in the NBA that won't kill you, but won't ever do anything for you. Millsap and Jefferson are both borderline All Stars, but I can't shake the feeling that in the end they really play the same position. The bench is solid but not noteworthy. This is a vintage Jazz team: they're tough, and they're going to compete every night. In the end though, they're better than the bad teams but not better than the good teams, and I think they will be close to the playoffs but not quite make it their in the end. If anyone slips, however, they'll be waiting.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Count me among those who really like the Wolves roster. Obviously Rubio and Love are great; more doesn't need to be said of them. I really like the pickups of Brandon Roy and AK47; while neither of these guys are stars anymore, they are both improvements over what you had last year, and are solid professionals who will help teach the young players on this team how to play. The bench is filled with not only top notch bench players but guys who are fine coming off the bench and will play hard while doing so; Barea, Stiemsma, and Admundson are great bench players who play hard every night and bring great playoff experience to this team; Budinger and Ridnoir do the same just without the playoff experience. On paper, this isn't just a playoff team, this is an up and coming team that is will push a 2 or 3 seed to 6 or 7 games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the dreaded I word will keep this team from doing that. This team just can't overcome missing at least 20 games each from Rubio and Love in the ultracompetitive West. Throw in the fact that Roy and AK47 will have fantastic seasons if they make it to 70 games and it's just too much for the Wolves to overcome in the end. The good news is I think the Wolves are smart enough to realize that about this season, and will make sure their young players come back healthy rather than rush them back (I know I'm giving KAHHHHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!! a lot of credit there, but I get that sense from this team), and will enjoy competing for a playoff spot in the last week of the season.
The Feel Good Story
8. Houston Rockets
This is probably too high for this Rockets team. Looking at them on paper, it's definitely too high; the overall talent on this team is less than that of Minny and Utah. However, every season there's a team that just has it, and just plays better than they should, and rides that momentum though the season. I get that feeling from the Rockets this year. Do I think Harden and Lin are overrated? Yes, but I think they aren't as overrated as the media gave them credit for being, and both are in major F You mode and want to show the league that they are much better than given credit for being. I think Omer Asik is very underrated, and I think he was a great addition to this team. I think Daequon Cook and Toney Douglas are solid bench players, and I know he does this every time there's an international competition and it rarely amounts to much in the NBA...but man I thought Carlos Delfino looked FANTASTIC in the Olympics. If he carries just a bit of that to the Houston bench, then their guard rotation is in great shape. This team has warts: outside of Asik, their bigs are a joke. There isn't really a backup point guard on the roster; Toney Douglas is really more of a 2 than a point. And as much as they want to prove that they can carry a team every night, there is legitimate reason to question whether Harden and Lin can actually do so. But in the end, I think this team has the right combination of talent, "Nobody believed in us!", and momentum to carry them into the playoffs.
The Unexpected
7. Your Dallas Mavericks!
Don't believe what you've heard: the Mavs offseason was bad (don't believe Cuban when he tells you it wasn't), but not a complete disaster (don't believe the media when they tell you it was). Sure, you would be correct in making fun of this team as the 2006 All Stars (seriously, look it up), but the fact is that Marion, Carter, Brand, and Kaman do have something left in the tank. Collison and Mayo are not a great starting backcourt, but they are a solid one, and Roddy, Brandan Wright, and Jae Crowder coming off the bench is a solid bench. There are lots of reasons not to pick the Mavs to not reach the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they are hit by injuries if they slide all the way to 10th. But in the end, Dirk is still a top 10 player in the league. This team is still good enough that if Dirk is his usual healthy self when he comes back from his knee injury, this team will not slide out of the playoffs, which is a lot better than a lot of people thought they would be. In the end, trust in the savvy vets.
6. LA Clippers
I've got a bad feeling about the Clippers this season. In a way, the Clippers remind me of the Suns, not in their talent but in the sense that way too many people are going to expect playing time on this team. Here's the list of guys who think they should be playing on this team: CP3, Willie Green (how is he still starting in the NBA?), Tough Juice, Blake Griffin (we need a nickname for him, and no, I'm not going with "The Ginger"), DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Jamaal Crawford, Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups...Hell, even Ryan Hollins is thinking that he played playoff minutes for the Celtics last season. Ummmmmm...that's 13 people. The good news is, that yes, there is a lot of talent there. The bad news is, it's almost harder to have too many talented people to play than it is untalented people. To handle a situation like this and keep the team from imploding, you need a really good coach and a really strong organization that can establish a culture that says winning is more important than anything, and the culture needs to be respected and even a little feared by the players themselves. Unfortunately, their head coach is arguably the worst head coach in the NBA, and in spite of their success last season this is still one of the least respected organizations in all of sports, not just the NBA. Throw in the fact that CP3 still hasn't signed an extension--which thusfar people have ignored, and I really don't understand why--and if the going ever gets tough on this team, I think this can get really bad really quickly. I think this team is too talented to fall much past 6th, but I get the complete opposite vibe for the Clips that I get from the Rockets: I feel like Momentum is against them this year. In the end, it's going to be the usual wild ride for the Clips.
5. Denver Nuggets
I like the idea behind the Nuggets. "Look, with the mountains in a game based on nonstop running, we have potentially the biggest homecourt advantage in sports. So let's just put a bunch of good but not great players out there, and run the shit out of the opposition." It's a sound theory, and thanks to the Nuggets pulling a Ewing Theory (tm Sports Guy) last season, everyone is on board with the nuggets. I have two problems with the Nuggets: 1) the Nuggets have tried the run them out of the mountains" before in the late 80's, and it didn't work then. Like I said, it's not a bad plan, and the players on the roster now are better than it they were back then, but as a long term playoff strategy I'm not a believer. 2) Everything broke right for the Nuggets last season. Everything. You know me if you read this blog, I believe in Yin and Yang, so if everything broke right for the Nuggets last season, some things are going to go wrong this season. And when you don't have an elite player to plug the holes, when things go wrong it can get bad quickly. Don't get me wrong; 5th place in the West is an impressive achievement. But some pundits are seeing the Nuggets as a dark horse title contender, and I think that's a little crazy.
The Flawed
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Griz are bringing back essentially the same team (the OJ Mayo loss will hurt some; a healthy ZBo will help some, so it all evens out in the end). I think they're about the same again: a tough second round out, but a second round out. This is a very good team that just doesn't have the backcourt to be a great team.
3. LA Lakers
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH yes. The Lakers. What an exciting season it's been already. So many things to note here:
1) I had the Lakers in third before the season started. Howard getting back into shape from back injury, mixing in the new players, the age of the team...even if things had gone incredibly smoothly, this team was not going to win the West.Again, obviously, this is all a matter of degrees. I think this team still fairly easily wraps up 3rd in the West, and if everyone is healthy, they have a good chance to make it to the Finals. But all this "hand the Western Conference to the Lakers" talk is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY premature.
2) The reason I had them in third was I figured Mike Brown would be fired. Especially as the preseason wore on, it became obvious that Mike Brown would not make the season. The Princeton offense for a team of offensive talent was insane. Combine that with the fact that A) Brown has at this point vehemently proven that he's not a good head coach, B) the Lakers were undoubtedly going to struggle since the media had forgotten that Howard was coming back from back surgery, this team was crazy old, Kobe might be the toughest player to adjust to in the league, and the bench still sucks, and C) the panic that was going to immediately ensue since the media can't pick on Lebron now that he has a title and for some reason they are choosing to ignore the fact that CP3 won't sign an extension, and D) Phil Jackson, the greatest front runner in coaching history was going to be waiting in the wings to come "save" them, and any hiccup in Lakerland was going to be met with Brown's dismissal. It was almost comical how predictable it was; the only surprise was the minor blip in going with D'Antoni instead of Jackson.
3) See point B above; this team isn't nearly as good as they are being made out to be. Steve Nash is 39! Have you watched Kobe play lately? He still thinks he's the best player in the league! When was the last time that "back surgery" and "starting center" went well together? Has nobody seen these guys try to play defense? They're horrible! Do you realize that Jodie Meeks is probably the 6th best player on this team? And for the love of God, after all the changes, do you not realize that FRICKING RON RON IS STILL STARTING FOR THIS TEAM?!?!? And don't talk to me about how good of shape he's in; he looks more like a crack addict than he does a guy who got into really good basketball shape.
The Western Enigma
2. OKC Thunder
So the Harden trade. I really don't know how I feel about that. The biggest problem is that I hate Harden probably more than any player in the NBA right now. I don't need to go into why, you've heard me rant about it before. The question is, how good is he? It's undeniable what a valuable X Factor he turned himself into in the last two seasons. He was fantastic off the bench in all of the Thunder's playoff series except one. He'd improved dramatically from his first couple of years in the league, and carved himself out as a valuable member of this team.
That being said, when the Thunder needed him most, he completely disappeared in The Finals against the Heat. His performance there was nothing short of embarrassing. That's okay, you thought. It was his first time there, maybe it was just jitters. But then on the Olympic team--an Olympic team that was missing several other guards that would have been there over him--Harden also looked awful. He was unquestionably the worst player on the team, and the one that made you say the most, "wow, he looks like he really doesn't belong with these guys" (and yes, that includes The Unibrow. Unibrow looked raw at times but played surprisingly well for a college player, and you could easily see the potential there. Harden just looked pathetic out there). So if you're trying to put together a team that can beat the Miami Heat--a team that has three players that truly belonged on that Olympic roster--how can you not watch those two performances and then come away thinking, "We can't pay this guy like he's one of them, because he most certainly is not."
In the end, I think they should have kept Harden, and deal with the fallout next year. This team was a favorite to compete for the title this season, and you don't miss that chance. You never know when a guy can land funny (see Rose, Derrick), and so if you've got the chance you go for it. That being said, the Thunder did a good job of getting something back for Harden. Kevin Martin has played for bad teams so long you forgot that he was recently a borderline All Star. If your young players (Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Reggie Jackson) give you anything, and if Eric Maynor can play well enough to be the 4th quarter point guard of a championship team (moving Westbrook to his real position of shooting guard), then this is still a team that can compete for a championship. I think we're so used to stars--using the term loosely for Harden--traded for little in return that that's what many assumed happened here. But I think OKC got at least $.75 on the dollar for Harden. If anyone else can step up, they can fill that void.
What makes this so fascinating though is that this was truly a What If trade. Time won't tell who was right on this one (unless OKC wins a title); there were no guarantees either way. If KD gets a title in his career, then it was the right move. If not, then we'll always wonder.
The Old Faithful
1. San Antonio Spurs
I don't think I even need to say anything here, do I?
There's your regular season kids. The lesson, as always: the NBA.....it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 10:00 PM
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