Thoughts on the NBA Playoffs So Far...

Thoughts on the NBA Playoffs so far...

* I could write an entire research paper on the Boston-Chicago playoff series. I'll sum it up as this: it's the greatest non-Finals playoff series in the history of the NBA. You can make some arguments for other series, but in the end, I think it's the best. The thing I want to talk about most, though, is Ray Allen passing Reggie Miller as greatest shooter in NBA history.

I've always despised Reggie Miller as one of the most overrated players in NBA history. Reggie Miller is a great shooter. I'll give him that. That's about it. He was not a great player: for some reason, the Pacers decided to build their entire team around Reggie Miller--a player who averaged a whopping 18pts, 3rebs, and 3asts in his career--and ran the same GD triple screen for him to get him open every time. Reggie couldn't create his own shot; he wasn't quick enough, wasn't a good enough ballhandler, and didn't have good enough 1 on 1 moves. The only way to get him open was to run triple screens for him and to build your team around him. You can do that with an elite player like Tim Duncan; the Spurs built their team around him, and that's just led to 4 titles. The Pacers managed to make a coupla Eastern Conference Finals and were never that big of a threat to win those series.

Reggie's also got a reputation as a remarkable clutch player. That reputation is largely unwarranted. Reggie managed to put up a coupla big games in Madison Square Garden, which thanks to the location and Spike Lee realizing he could market himself by feuding with Reggie, earned him a "clutch player" rep. But Reggie never played well in deciding games in a series--he always shrank in Games 5, 6, and 7. And can you name a single clutch moment that didn't happen in MSG? Neither can I, because they didn't happen.

Let's look even at his "clutch" moments in MSG--specifically, the eight points in 9 seconds. YouTube the play; it's easy to find. Reggie hits a three. Great, no big deal. Reggie then SHOVES Greg Anthony to the ground. Not pushes, not elbows, just absolutely shoves him to the ground. It's one of the worst no calls in the history of the NBA. I especially love the girly hand wave he does; if I were a ref, even if I totally missed the play, I would have called a foul on him right there. "Hmmm...Greg Anthony is lying in a heap on the ground, and you're doing this sissiest, girliest 'I didn't do it' dance I've ever seen? Yeah, not buying it." Whoever was inbounding--I forget if it was Oakley or Mason--then decides, "I don't need to look at Greg Anthony; he was standing upright a moment ago; surely he's standing upright still!" and throws the ball directly to Reggie, over Anthony's head. This is perhaps the stupidest inbound play in the history of the NBA. Reggie is then absolutely wide open to nail a three--the one thing he can do in the league. This play is sold as one of the great all time plays in NBA history, when it's really just another example of A) Reggie being a bitch, and B) the Knicks pissing all over themselves in the playoffs once again.

So then you have Ray Allen--a guy who's always been an elite player AND shooter--who's career averages are better than Reggie's in every statistical category in the playoffs, and is better in every category in the regular season except for FG%, where Reggie holds a 2% advantage. Ray's playoff teams weren't built solely around him--Sam Cassell and Glen Robinson in Milwaukee, Paul Pierce and KG with the Celtics--so no constant triple picks and designing the whole team around getting him shots like Reggie did. You also have remarkable clutch play throughout Ray's career: his fantastic series against the Sixers in 2001 (he was the only Buck to show up in that Easter Conference Finals series), his amazing performance on an awful Sonics team that somehow (oh wait, I know how--he averaged 26.5 ppg while shooting 47.4% from the field and averaging 4 rebounds and assists each per game!) made the second round of the playoffs and gave the Spurs a run for their money (please remember that the second best player on that team was arguably Jerome James), and, of course, rebounded from a bad first round to be dynamic in the rest of the playoffs as the Celtics won the championship last year.

So after watching Ray Allen hit shot after shot to send games into OT or win them outright in the greatest non-Finals series ever, we can finally put to rest the fallacy that Reggie Miller is the greatest shooter in NBA history. Thank you, Ray Allen, for taking care of that nonsense.

* There have been some embarrassing losses in NBA history. Mavs-Golden State, of course, is up there. Lakers-Pistons in 01, Sonics-Nuggets in 94, the list goes on. However, the Hornets performance against the Nuggets ranks as one of the most embarrassing postseason performances by a team, ever.

It's not just the 58 point home loss--the worst in NBA playoff history. It's the fact that this is a Hornets team led by one of the best young players in the NBA, one who will most likely end up as an all-time great in the game. It's the fact that this team took the Spurs to game 7 in the second round last season, and was seen as up and coming. It's the fact that--on paper--the team improved in the offseason with the addition of James Posey while keeping their core in tact. It's the fact that they beat a lifeless team that had given up on the season last season (Mavs), and should have none not to ever submit a performance like that. It's the fact that this team knows that management is going to blow up the team in the offseason because they are basically going out of business, and should have played with more passion for each other.

I can't believe how bad their performance was. Shame on the Hornets.

* Make no mistake: the way the Nuggets are playing right now, they can beat the Lakers. I'm not saying they will, I'm just saying they can. This team is clicking on all cylinders.

* I hate to say it, because I do like Dwayne Wade, and I could give a shit about the Hawks (unlikeable team, crappy fans), but I'm glad the Hawks knocked the Heat out. Why? Because I'm sick of the Heat getting lucky by getting crappy teams and going farther in the playoffs than they should because they have Wade. Hey Pat Riley, why don't you actually build a good team (I mean really, is it that hard to convince free agents to come to fricking Miami? And play with one of the best players in the game?) instead of just relying on superhuman efforts from Wade and lucky matchups against overrated teams in the playoffs to move forward. Let's get to work while Wade can still walk, because the cracks are starting to show in the "get knocked down 1000 times, get up 1001" armor.

* I know I've said this before, but I feel like it needs to be said again: can we blow up the Jazz already, please? Let's not waste Deron William's career on the likes of Carlos Boozer and a shell of his former self AK47.

* Kudos to Philly for a nice effort against the Magic. Now good luck trying to figure out how to get rid of Elton Brand's awful contract.

* Learn from this Portland. Good luck next year.

* I've got to give props to Orlando. This team is playing tougher than I thought they would, and have done a nice job beating a feisty Sixers team and are playing their hearts out against Boston. My biggest thing to say about them is this: please, please do not think that Jameer Nelson is the answer to all of your problems. Nelson's season this year was a fluke, and undersized guards who rip their shoulders apart don't just bounce back from that. Continue to look for a good, solid point guard once your season ends, and make sure Dwight Howard gets up to 60% from the line in the offseason.

I'm not saying the playoffs are over for this team, either. I like Big Baby, but when you're relying on him to go 9-14 from the field and hit the game winner as time expires, that's not good. Orlando can still take this series.

* Houston. I don't know what to think about this team. Part of me likes this team: I love Scola, Landry, and Aaron Brooks, who are all wildly entertaining to watch in spite of the fact that they do not play remotely alike; I like the fact that they have the one guy in the league who not only isn't afraid of Kobe, but loves to talk shit and get physical with him; I love the fact that they actually employ a smart, productive player who can carry on an intelligent conversation; I love that they have a solid big man who is actually a good free throw shooter. Part of me, though, hates this team: of course I loathe Ron Ron when he plays against anyone in the league other than Kobe and hates everything he is and represents; I hate Battier partly because he's from Duke, partly because he's pointed out as underrated so often he's now overrated, and mostly because he's so fucking smug and fake humble; I don't like Yao because his game is so damn boring it makes Tim Duncan's game look exciting by comparison and because it's only a matter of time every season until he gets hurt and ruins Houston's season...and yes, JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WASN'T GOING TO HAPPEN THIS SEASON...off he limps at the end of game 3.

Of course I'm rooting for the Rockets against the Lakers, because hey, I'm a good guy and I root against evil in any form, but I just feel weird rooting for the Rockets. Oddly enough, I feel like the Rockets have a better chance of actually closing out the Lakers without Yao. Like him or not, but Phil is a good coach (not as good as he thinks he is, but still good), and with Yao and Ron Ron the Rockets are fairly predictable, and in a 7 game series the Rockets would have won 2 games, played 2 down to the wire that they would have lost, and lost the other two not in blowouts, but fairly convincingly. Now, with a solid win already under their belt with Yao, this team gets the benefit of A) the boost they always get for a week or two whenever Yao or TMac first goes down and B) the Lakers having a hard time game planning because the team is so wild-ass without them. I still think the Lakers end up pulling this out, but it will go 7, and it will be a nail biter.

* Dallas. Sigh. All I have to say about Dallas is what I've been saying all season about Dallas: this team has done a good job, has overachieved, and the bottom line is that it is simply not that good. As I've said many times in many different ways: when Antoine Wright is your starting shooting guard, then ANTOINE WRIGHT IS YOUR STARTING SHOOTING GUARD. Even though Dirk has improved in this area, they still don't have a consistent low post scorer. Even though Josh Howard has played better and JJ Barea can play well against small opponents, they still don't have a good, consistent perpetrator from the perimeter. Even though Jason Kidd has done a masterful job running the team offensively, he's one of the worst defensive point guards in a league that favors offensive guard play. Even though Ryan Hollins goes out there and plays his ass off every time he's on the court, he's still Ryan Hollins, and if you're relying on him in the second round of the playoffs, well, then to say that "that's not good" is an understatement.

I had to listen to that motherfucker Dale Hansen snottily comment after beating the Spurs, "Is this what we've come to accept from this team? Beating a depleted team in the first round?" God I hate him. Anyway, yes Dale, that's what this team is. It's a team that was championship caliber in 2006, but isn't anymore. And you know what? There's nothing unusual about that. Happens to teams all the time; they almost make it, but if they don't cross that hump when they get the chance, it doesn't happen again very often. Ask Kings fans about that. Ask Blazers fans about that. Ask Sonics fans...or Suns fans...the list goes on and on. This happens all the time. It's not unusual. Is it frustrating? Of course. But that doesn't mean we should dismiss this team, or go negative on all the players. This is still a very talented team that is playing hard against a more talented team in the second round of the playoffs. Look, I want to win more than damn near every Mavs fan out there, so I don't want to here anything about accepting mediocrity. But when the fuck did the Dallas Mavericks franchise join the "win the title or who cares" club? These aren't the Lakers, or the Yankees, or the Cowboys. So please, shut that shit up, and appreciate this team for what it is: a good team that's busting it's ass to be a very good team, but is not a great team. Hope and pray that the team will improve in the offseason to be a great team again. But I've got news you people: I've watched this franchise run out 10 win teams, and I'll take this team over that 100 times out of 100. So let's just calm the fuck down about dissing the Mavs.

* On a related note to the Mavs, NBA officiating. Simmons has been railing against this for years now, and I've got to say I'm right there with him. NBA officiating has gotten to the point where it is a serious detriment to the game and to the league itself. I appreciate the fact that the game of basketball is the toughest sport to officiate, but this is still nonsense.

I'm not even worried so much about the flagrant/suspension controversies that have occurred so far; oddly enough, I think the NBA has got those pretty much right. Howards elbow was a punch with an elbow, he deserved to sit a game. Rondo's foul was a hard playoff foul that deserved a flagrant but not a suspension--it's NBA 101 that you don't give up a layup to end the game, and that wasn't near as bad of a shot as Brad Miller made it out to be because you could see the yellow stream going down his leg before he shot those free throws, and he was looking for an excuse as to why he was going to miss them. Of course Rafer deserved to sit, and he better be happy he's in The League now and not in And 1, because not only would Eddie House have beat his ass in And 1, but everybody would have watched him do it because you don't slap a man upside the head. Derek Fisher also easily deserved to sit a game, because he didn't try to fight through that pick: he saw Scola coming, sized him up, and then bodyslammed him with his shoulder. Like Howard's punch was with his elbow, Fisher's punch was with his shoulder. Ron Ron shouldn't have been ejected with his flair up with Kobe, but he's earned the reputation he has and so I don't feel bad about that. Kobe did throw a bow at him, but it wasn't anywhere close to being as bad as Howards, and giving him a Flagrant 1 (or a, "if you do that again, then you will sit") is the right solution for that.

No, I'm more concerned about the calls within the game. The Mavs-Nuggets game was awfully officiated, and not because of the last 8 seconds, but because of the previous 47:52 where a ridiculous 51 fouls were called. On the same token, there is a good argument to, "How the fuck did you not throw Dwight Howard out of the game when he tried to kill Sam Dalembert with his elbow?" It seems like there are two types of refs in the league: ones that, God only know why, think the fans are there to watch them officiate and call way too many fouls, or the ones that are either incompetent or too scared to make the correct calls and just sit there and let games get out of control. There is no middle game, and it is KILLING the league. I'd say that at LEAST 60% of the time when I've watched a playoff game, I've felt that the officiating adversely affected the outcome of the game. I'm not saying that 60% of the time they're causing the wrong team to win, I'm saying that 60% of the time the refs are fucking the game up so badly that even when the game is finished we can't honestly say we know who the better team was. That is awful when more often than not, game outcomes are being hurt by poor officiating. It's simply unacceptable.

After the Donaghue scandal, Stern promised that things were going to change with NBA officiating. Other than hiring an ex-army officer who I have yet to see what qualifications he has to do anything with NBA referees and who appears to have done exactly jack shit, NOTHING HAS FUCKING HAPPENED. Nothing. Not only has the quality of officiating not improved, but we haven't heard anything about steps being taken to make that happen. What about an Independent Ref watching the game from the sidelines and critiquing the three officials performance at halftime, so they can hopefully improve? What about more training for officials? What about firing officials for poor performance? What about player/coaching feedback? What about making sure that certain officials being removed from sites that their neutrality is questioned? Joey Crawford still refs Spurs games, in spite of the fact that he has been suspended in the last 2 years for basically throwing games against the Spurs. If statistics show that a referee has an inordinate amount of calls--especially technicals or flagrants--against a team, and a team has an especially poor record when that ref officiates, like how Dan Crawford always goes out of his way to screw over the Mavericks, or Bill Kennedy with the Celtics, then those refs shouldn't be allowed to ref in those teams, and a SERIOUS look should be given at the objectivity of those officials.

This has to get better NBA. This league is too good and talented right now to keep having these kind of problems. David, wake up and fix this. Shame on you.

* Finally, for any of you who had any doubts that this is the Year of Lebron, check out how perfectly the playoffs are lining up for him: cakewalks in Round 1 and 2, a mild test in the ECF, and then a tough battle in the Finals against either the Lakers or the Nuggets that is never really in doubt. Do not doubt for a second that Lebron is winning his first championship this year. And it's going to be beautiful.

The NBA people...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!

Sometimes Good Things Do Happen To Good People

I'm an unabashed Kevin Garnett fan.

Have been since he joined the league, and I've written about why here before. It's because KG is one of the few left in professional athletics who really wants it. Like Charles Barkley before him, he really cares: about winning above business, about the fans, about his teammates, about the game itself. I've always loved him for that.

On the other hand, you have Kobe. Kobe, who does want to win--but only if it's his way, on his terms, and will hurt anyone if he doesn't get what he wants. Kobe, who cares nothing for anyone but himself: not his fans, not his family, not the game. Kobe cares about one thing in life: the glorification of Kobe Bryant. I've always hated him for that.

This is what makes last night's ...demoralizing? unbelievable? humiliating? ridiculous? dominating? all of those, really...thirty-nine point win over the Lakers even more wonderful. It doesn't always happen where karma wins, where right beats might, where good beats evil, and each person gets what they truly deserved. For once, however, that's exactly what happened. The team that deserved it more won. It's really as simple as that. And not only did they win, but they won so dramatically, so convincingly, that you not only felt good for KG, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, but you felt good for the world.

The "right" thing happened, for once.

Here's some random thoughts on the game last night, and the Celtics season:

* I'm thrilled that the Big 3 all turned in such dominating performances in the decisive game. Truly, this win validated all of their careers, and can put to rest much of the nonsense we've had to listen to over the years about their overall talents. The questions have been answered: Kevin Garnett is one of the 25 best players ever, Paul Pierce is one of the 40 best players ever, and Ray Allen is one of the 50 best players ever. And I might be underselling them a little bit.
* I heard Michael Wilbon a few minutes ago mention how unrealistic it is that the Celtics would repeat. Ummmm...why? The Big 3 still have 2 more good seasons ahead of them (at least). Your younger players (Rondo, Perkins, Powe, Davis, House, even maybe Tony Allen) just got a fantastic year of championship experience. You don't think OCD Ray Allen is going to work all summer with Rondo (who he's basically adopted) on his jumper? Doesn't Powe strike you as the kind of guy who's going to have a PJ Brown like career: way overachieving, lasting 20 years, and constantely getting better until he's a borderline All Star because of how fundamentally sound he is? We all might laugh at Kendrick Perkins thinking he's part of the Big Three, but the guy has already had a solid career, and strikes me as the kind of guy who will work hard to move himself into that elite category. Can't someone get Eddie House to work on his ballhandling all summer? That's it, nothing else, just that? If he improves that, then he goes from a decent backup to a terrific backup. I can EASILY see this team winning titles in the next 2-3 years.
* I've written this before, and I'm going to write it again: I cannot say enough good things about James Posey. I fricking LOVE that guy. He's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. He's evolved into such a great shooter that last night Todd and I were talking about how we were surprised anytime he missed a three. You know you're a fantastic shooter when a three goes up, it doesn't fall, and I'm like, "Wow, he missed! I can't believe it!" He plays to his strengths perfectly: he scores only when he needs to, defers to his stars, and takes the right kind of shots. It was when the Celtics signed Posey that I thought, "You know what, they might actually win this this year", and he was an absolute must have in their championship run.
* Name me one addition the Celtics need to make this summer. You can't do it. They have no significant free agents (I'd try to convince PJ Brown to play again, but even I'll admit he's getting up there), and have no significant holes on their team.
* Finally...you really think the Big 3 are going to be satisfied? Really? You see KG taking it easy? You think Pierce isn't going to want another one after all the years of futility he had to go through? Ray Allen is OCD, for God's sake: all he knows how to do is work hard. They won't take the summer off.

In other words, yes, I do think the Celtics have a good chance to win another championship.

Normally I hate the phrase "deserved to win". Who decided that? What does deserving have to do with playing a game? There are times when one team deserves it over another, yes, but that phrase gets thrown around far too often.

For once, though, there was a team that truly "deserved" to win, and one who really didn't. And for once, the team that deserved to win, won.

Congratulations Celtics. You deserved it, you earned it, you won it. Enjoy.

Okay...I Think I Can Write My NBA Playoff Preview Now (Part Deux)

Continued from yesterday...scroll down to read about Rounds 1 & 2.

PJ'S NOTE: TOMORROW--HOW TO FIX THE MAVS!!!

Conference Finals

Pistons (1) v Cavs (2)
My predition: Pistons in 6

I'm impressed with the job the Cavs have done in the second half of the season. They are a team that has learned to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. The rebound the ball incredibly well. They play physical, solid D and O, as that is what they're best at. They're better at not just standing around and watching Lebron do his thing; they have good ball movement and more players who can create their own shots. I LOVE the move they made to play Larry Hughes at the point and move Sasha to the 2. The Achilles' Heal of this time was always their point guard play; Jeff Mcinnis, Eric Snow, and Daniel Gipson all tried, but none could get the job done. I'm glad that Mike Brown finally said, "Fuck it, I'm going with by best five guys to start, and who cares if one of them is playing out of position." Coaches don't do that enough.

That being said, I think their weaknesses are still a little too much to top this Pistons team. They are not going to dominate the boards against the Pistons as they've done in Rounds 1 and 2. The Pistons backcourt will expose the difficincies of playing two 2-guards. Sheed and CWeb will outplay Gooden and Big Z, who can barely move at this point.

That being said, I still think this is an incredibly close series. I think all of the games will come down to the wire. However, that's the Cavs' biggest weakness: I don't think this is a clutch team. Lebron's issues with free throws--especially at the end of games--are well documented. When push comes to shove, I think the Pistons will end up winning up two games that the Cavs could have won but didn't, and that will cost them.

If it goes 7 games and San Antonio beats Phoenix, however, the Cavs win, and Lebron shoots 25 free throws in the last game as the NBA desperately tries to avoid another Pistons/Spurs final.

Suns (2) v Jazz(4)
My prediction: Suns in 6

Whether it be the Suns or the Spurs here, this will be an entertaining and ultimately inevitable victory for one of those two teams over the Jazz. Like I said, I love the Jazz, but asking them to go to the NBA Finals their first year back in the playoffs out of this competitive of a Western Conference? That's just too much. The Suns (since that's who I'm hoping for) offense is too wide open for the Jazz D to stop, and the Suns have enough big guys to throw at Boozer (Amare, Marion, Thomas) and enough mobile guys to throw at Okur when he wants to shoot 3's (Marion, Amare). Deron Williams will light up Steve Nash, but Little Stevie Nash will also light up Deron. And I'll definitely take the Raja Bell/Leondro Barbosa combo over Gordon Giricek.

The games will be close, but never in doubt. Suns in 6.

NBA Finals

Pistons (1) v Suns (2)
My prediction: Pistons in 7

That's right. As much as it pains me to say it, for some reason I just have this feeling that this is the Piston's year. The defection of Ben Wallace that turned out to be addition by subtraction, the gift of CWebb, and the way they've flown under everyone's radar has me feeling that this is their time. Again.

Also, don't underestimate the crappy East. There comes a point where the professional media needs to realize that the beating all the outstanding Western Conference teams take against each other plays a factor in the NBA Finals. Which would you rather do: face an Orlando team that is an absolute and complete joke, face a Bulls team that just chucks jumpers all day, and then finally play a halfway decent team that is ultimately flawed in several different ways, or fight through a Lakers team led by arguably the best player in the NBA, the dynasty that is the Spurs, and an extremely well-balanced Jazz team that just beat the hottest team in the playoffs? Yeah. I thought so. I mean seriously...how much different is the Cavs from the Lakers? If they met in a 7 game series, wouldn't you say Cavs in 7, but if Kobe and one other guy gets hot, it's the Lakers? And the Cavs are the second best team in the East! The imbalance makes the playoffs entertaining, but it takes its toll on the Western Conference teams.

Also, I think asking the Suns to win the whole thing in the Amare comeback year is just too much. They'll get there...they'll make mistakes...they'll learn from them and come back next year. I think the Spurs have a much better chance at beating the Pistons in the Finals than the Suns do.

Don't get me wrong; the Suns have the talent and the matchups to win. I just don't think they have the experience, rest, and momentum to. I think the Pistons squeek it out.

And then, hopefully, Chauncey Billups comes to Dallas next year.

Okay...I Think I Can Write My NBA Playoff Preview Now

Why is this coming so late, you ask? You know why. I was going to write this on the Monday after the first weekend of the NBA playoffs--just a little bit behind schedule--but once the Mavs' series started, I couldn't. I just had to watch. And then I had to recover. So here's what happened, what I would have predicted would happen (you'll just have to trust me), and my analysis. Enjoy.

FIRST ROUND

Detroit Pistons (1) v Orlando Magic (8)
My prediction: Pistons in 5
Result: Pistons in 4

I enjoyed this series because I finally got a chance to see the Orlando Magic play. I realized two things: 1) This team sucks, and 2) Dwight Howard is a HORRIBLE basketball player. Just terrible. Sure, he is one of the most impressive physical specimens I've ever seen. I've never seen people get out of a man's way when he goes to dunk like they do with Howard--even Shaq in his prime wasn't as feared. But Howard has NOTHING else. Doesn't know a single post move. Doesn't have any type of shot. He's an incredible athlete, but has a lot of work to do.

I thought the Magic were athletic and good enough to steal a game from the Pistons. After watching them for five minutes, I knew I was wrong.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v Washington Wizards (7)
My prediction: Cavs in 4
Result: Cavs in 4

No Arenas or Butler? Please.

Toronto Raptors (3) v New Jersey Nets (6)
My prediction: Nets in 6
Result: Nets in 6

Loved the Raptors. Hate Vince Carter. I would have loved it had the Raps won--and my secondary prediction was Raps in 7, in the classic, "if they can make it to a 7th game at home, they will win it--they just have to get there." However, in the NBA, always take the savvy veteran team who underachieved during the regular season over the young, inexperienced, and overachieving team. Sorry Raps. I was rooting for you.

Miami Heat (4) v Chicago Bulls (5)
My prediction: Bulls in 6
Result: Bulls in 4

THANK YOU!!! The only time I was happy in the first round. I couldn't believe all the pundits who were buying into the Heat. Let me get this straight...this team sucks except for one player, and that player is hurt, and you expect them to take it? Please. Now granted, after the Bulls stinkbomb the last game of the season, I expected them to be a little shell shocked and it take them a bit to recover--hence the in 6 prediction. But instead, it made them made and focused. Good for them. Good riddance, Miami.

Mavs (1) v Warriors (8)
My prediction: Mavs in 5
Result: Warriors in 6

Okay. So here's what happened:

* ALL of the Warrior's strengths were the Mavs' weaknesses. Huge backcourt? Check. Quick power forwards who can penetrate and shoot? Check. Good point guard play? Check.
* THEIR EX-COACH WAS IN CHARGE OF THE TEAM. I learned this lesson when Jon Gruden and Tampa Bay were in the Super Bowl years ago. Everyone thought the Raiders were going to win, but I remember that Scott Alexander (the best boss I've ever had) said, "Are you kidding me? He's their ex-coach! He knows every single one of those players inside and out! You can't beat that advantage." And Scott was exactly right. Mavs-Warriors was the ultimate test: a drunk, still-haven't-recovered-from-my-nervous-breakdown-over-a-decade-ago man who knows all of a teams strengths and weaknesses is still a huge advantage. You can't beat somewhen when you know all their tricks.
* Avery is an impressive coach. For his experience level, he's an amazing coach. But he still has things to learn. He got outcoached in the Heat series last year, and he got INCREDIBLY outcoached (I can't even believe I'm writing these words) by Nelson this year. He should have played everyone and beat Golden State the last matchup of the regular season; had we won that game, we would have beaten the Clippers 4-0 instead of losing to the Warriors 2-4 in the first round. He should NEVER have changed his starting lineup in Game 1. I still can't believe he did that. I said to my friends then: he just told Golden State that we're scared of them. It was incredibly stupid. Really, the series ended right there. He waited too long to start double teaming Baron Davis. He played Jerry Stackhouse too much (as always). He played zone wayyyyyyyyyy too much. And he didn't play Austin Crochere enough.
Avery is a great coach. But he still has things to learn.
* Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, and Matt Barnes all decided at the same time to play at the pinacle of their potential. It's as simple as that. Sometimes you get hot...and they ALL got not just hot, but INCREDIBLY hot at the exact same time.
* The Golden State crowd is 800 times better than the Dallas crowd. And we all know how much I love my fair city, so this might hurt most of all to write. But it's true. Shame on you, cocaine-and-boobjob crowd (as Rhiner correctly calls you), who gets dressed up in clubbing clothes, high heals, and suit jackets to come watch a playoff game. Who sit their and drink, socialize, and try to be scene instead of watching the game and being seen. Go to the fucking W; we don't want you in here. And if you don't think a post about how pretenious my beloved city has gotten is coming down the line...well, then you don't know me very well.
* And, finally, Dirk. Dirk wasn't as bad as people think he was--notice he's last on the list of reasons we lost--but obviously he did not play well. Last year, Dirk was successful because he was willing to post up and grind out in the paint when the going got tough. He was not willing to do that this year, and that's really what killed him. It's not that he was scared; Dirk is no Michael Jordan, but he proved last year (and in game 5) that he is a fairly clutch player. He just wanted to beat this team playing HIS game...and his game was the worst possible matchup for this team. He has to be versatile to win, and he wasn't versatile in this series.

So that's what happened. Now remember, this isn't as bad of an upset as it appears; it was top ten bad, but I don't know if it was top 5 bad. The Mavs were slightly overrated; even though they had 67 wins, they were a team that never had injury problems and played hard every night while half of the conference tanked half of the season for the draft, and the other half all suffered injuries that put them out of contention at points of the year. No fault on the Mavs, just don't think just because of that number that I would rank them over many other teams in the last 20 years. On the other hand, the Golden State team that is playing now is not an 8 seed. This is a team that started the year with major injuries to key players (Davis had knee surgery in the offseason and only played 63 games; Jason Richardson missed almost all of the first half of the season and only played 51 games) and then traded half of their team for new players at mid-season (Stephen Jacksona and Al Harrington). So it was a fluke that this was an 8 seed; they're much better than the Lakers, better than the Nuggets, and better than the Rockets.

Like I said, it was the worst possible draw the Mavs could have faced. But as the old saying goes...

C'est la vie.

Phoenix Suns (2) v LA Lakers (7)
My prediction: Suns in 5
Result: Suns in 5

A team in dissaray meets one of the four premier teams in the league. Kobe can steal one game...but that's it. And that's pretty much exactly what happened.

I can't wait til the Lakers end up trading Andrew Bynum for a player half as good this offseason to try to appease Kobe...and then get to watch him in the All Star game in 2 years (you heard it here). Good times!

San Antonio Spurs (3) v Denver Nuggets (6)
My prediction: Spurs in 7
Result: Spurs in 5

Why, oh why, do I ever pick the Nuggets or Jayhawks to do well in anything? Why? No matter how good they look, in games or on paper, they're losers. It all goes wrong, and I end up looking stupid. And I know it's going to happen. I know that there are losers in the world, and that the Nuggets and Jayhawks are going to be losers, no matter what. But I always fall for their bullshit.

On paper, this--like the Mavs and Warriors--was the worst possible matchup for the Spurs. Coupla big guys (Camby and Nene) to guard Timmy and make him work defensively; two dynamic scores (Iverson and Melo) so that Bruce Bowen can't just take one star out of the game; point guard quick enough to guard Parker (Iverson); small forward quick and strong enough to guard Manu (Melo). Should have been great. And what happened?

The losers were losers. Again.

Utah Jazz (4) v Houston Rockets (5)
My prediction: Rockets in 7
Result: Jazz in 7

What a fantastic series. I'm so disappointed I didn't get to enjoy it more, because I was in such a depressed fog over what was happening with the Mavs that I didn't watch as much of this as I normally would have (I needed time on the off-nights to step away from the NBA). Poor TMac. The guy tries so hard, and the guy is SO GOOD. People don't realize that his teams are always overachieving. Mavs to 7 games that one year? Magic up 3-1 that one year? Those teams SUCKED. They should have never made it as far as they did. Yet TMac was able to carry them there--and yet, when talent finally won out, it becomes his fault. Well, let's look at this Rocket's team: they have TMac, one of the more overrated players in the game in Yao Ming, and a decent player in Shane Battier. THAT'S IT. There is no one else on that roster. Rafer Alston? Luther Head? Chucky Hayes? Look, they play real hard. But they SUCK. End of story.

As for the Jazz, I've been saying for years that this is a great team, and they're finally realizing it. Great point guard play with Williams and Fisher; big hole at 2-guard, but at least they have a good shooter (Giricek) and an athletic stopper (Brewer). They have the best defensive player in the league at Small Forward (AK-47), and one of the best all-around subs in the league coming off the bench (Matt Harpring, who's never got the respect he deserves because he's not flashy and plays in Utah), one of the without question top 20 and possibly top 10 best players in the league this year (Carlos Boozer), and a top ten best center in the league who creates huge matchup problems because of his shooting and passing ability. Oh, and he's crazy clutch, too (Okur).

So no, it's not TMac's fault that the Rockets fell short again. A good team met a much better team. It happens.

Okay...this is getting really long, so I'm going to do the Secound Round today and finish the playoffs off tomorrow.

SECOND ROUND
*NOTE* my prediction will be before the first two games of these series

Detroit Pistons (1) v Bulls (5)
My prediction: Pistons in 7

I thought Chicago would put up more of a fight than they did the first two games, since they were the Hot Team of the East (like the Warriors were in the West) in the first round. However, Detroit quickly went out and kicked the shit out of them. I figured Detroit would win because of the lack of low post scoring from the Bulls; I didn't think they'd get spanked because of it, which is what looks like will happen. The Bulls could get hot and come back, but it's doubtful.

This just goes to prove that the Bulls should have traded for Gasol during the season, and should definitely do so during the season. Depending on where their first round pick falls--if it's top 2 obviously keep it; if it's anything else--they should call the Grizz and say, "Gordon, Nocioni, Thomas, Wallace (just in case West is senile enough to take him; he's not, but one can hope), or our first round pick; choose any two of the three for Gasol." You can then allow yourself to be cajoled into something minor on top of those two (A second round pick; Malik Allen, maybe even Duhon, but I would hesitate on him) and make the deal. Easy, and both teams win, unless the Grizz take Ben Gordon, the most overrated player in the NBA.

Cavs (2) v Nets (6)
My prediction: Cavs in 6

The Cavs are playing too good right now, and the Nets are just not that good. It's as simple as that. The Nets are too smart of a veteran team to go out without a fight, but this series will never really be in doubt.

Suns (2) v Spurs (3)
My prediction: Suns in 7

Really, I have no idea. Watching the Spurs in the regular season, I thought they had slipped a notch. However, now it appears that they were simply playing possum: Tim Duncan is healthier than ever and is playing fantastic; Parker is playing great; Finley is on fire. However, Steve Nash is in full blown "I will not let us lose this series" mode, and I think his teammates respect him/are scared enough of him to respond. Plus, D'Antoni is doing a fantastic job coaching; he's learned the subtelties of the playoffs the last two years, and is showing a deft touch (such as starting Kurt Thomas to help with the boards in Game 2). Really, I can see this series going either way. Since I want the Suns to win, I'll go with Suns in 7, but this is basically a sit back and enjoy the ride.

Phoenix must win one of the next two in San Antonio.

Jazz (4) v Warriors (8)
My prediction: Utah in 6

I was very impressed with Golden State's first game performance; after their emotional win against their hated arch-rivals, I figured Game 1 would be a letdown game. Oh contraire, mon fraire. What a fantastic game. However, I think Utah wins this series, and while the games will all be close, they win it fairly easily (meaning the outcome is never in doubt). Remember: Utah's best player is a dominant low post scorer. The Warriors CANNOT stop that. Not even close. The 20 rebounds Boozer had in Game 1 was no fluke; he will EASILY average 15 rebounds in this series. The best defensive small forward in the game will take JRich out; no dynamite series for him. And while Williams can't stop Davis, he can play him to a standstill; he's big and strong enough to slow him down defensively, and is good enough offensively to where it will at least end up being break even. Once you throw in Okur, Harpring, and Milsap, and it's just too much firepower for the Jazz. The Warriors will fight valliantly, and they might even get hot in Game 3 and win that in a blowout, but as the series winds on this team will beat them up, and they won't be able to take it. Jazz possibly in 5, easily in 6.

Back with Conference and NBA Finals tomorrow...