Okay...I Think I Can Write My NBA Playoff Preview Now

Why is this coming so late, you ask? You know why. I was going to write this on the Monday after the first weekend of the NBA playoffs--just a little bit behind schedule--but once the Mavs' series started, I couldn't. I just had to watch. And then I had to recover. So here's what happened, what I would have predicted would happen (you'll just have to trust me), and my analysis. Enjoy.

FIRST ROUND

Detroit Pistons (1) v Orlando Magic (8)
My prediction: Pistons in 5
Result: Pistons in 4

I enjoyed this series because I finally got a chance to see the Orlando Magic play. I realized two things: 1) This team sucks, and 2) Dwight Howard is a HORRIBLE basketball player. Just terrible. Sure, he is one of the most impressive physical specimens I've ever seen. I've never seen people get out of a man's way when he goes to dunk like they do with Howard--even Shaq in his prime wasn't as feared. But Howard has NOTHING else. Doesn't know a single post move. Doesn't have any type of shot. He's an incredible athlete, but has a lot of work to do.

I thought the Magic were athletic and good enough to steal a game from the Pistons. After watching them for five minutes, I knew I was wrong.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) v Washington Wizards (7)
My prediction: Cavs in 4
Result: Cavs in 4

No Arenas or Butler? Please.

Toronto Raptors (3) v New Jersey Nets (6)
My prediction: Nets in 6
Result: Nets in 6

Loved the Raptors. Hate Vince Carter. I would have loved it had the Raps won--and my secondary prediction was Raps in 7, in the classic, "if they can make it to a 7th game at home, they will win it--they just have to get there." However, in the NBA, always take the savvy veteran team who underachieved during the regular season over the young, inexperienced, and overachieving team. Sorry Raps. I was rooting for you.

Miami Heat (4) v Chicago Bulls (5)
My prediction: Bulls in 6
Result: Bulls in 4

THANK YOU!!! The only time I was happy in the first round. I couldn't believe all the pundits who were buying into the Heat. Let me get this straight...this team sucks except for one player, and that player is hurt, and you expect them to take it? Please. Now granted, after the Bulls stinkbomb the last game of the season, I expected them to be a little shell shocked and it take them a bit to recover--hence the in 6 prediction. But instead, it made them made and focused. Good for them. Good riddance, Miami.

Mavs (1) v Warriors (8)
My prediction: Mavs in 5
Result: Warriors in 6

Okay. So here's what happened:

* ALL of the Warrior's strengths were the Mavs' weaknesses. Huge backcourt? Check. Quick power forwards who can penetrate and shoot? Check. Good point guard play? Check.
* THEIR EX-COACH WAS IN CHARGE OF THE TEAM. I learned this lesson when Jon Gruden and Tampa Bay were in the Super Bowl years ago. Everyone thought the Raiders were going to win, but I remember that Scott Alexander (the best boss I've ever had) said, "Are you kidding me? He's their ex-coach! He knows every single one of those players inside and out! You can't beat that advantage." And Scott was exactly right. Mavs-Warriors was the ultimate test: a drunk, still-haven't-recovered-from-my-nervous-breakdown-over-a-decade-ago man who knows all of a teams strengths and weaknesses is still a huge advantage. You can't beat somewhen when you know all their tricks.
* Avery is an impressive coach. For his experience level, he's an amazing coach. But he still has things to learn. He got outcoached in the Heat series last year, and he got INCREDIBLY outcoached (I can't even believe I'm writing these words) by Nelson this year. He should have played everyone and beat Golden State the last matchup of the regular season; had we won that game, we would have beaten the Clippers 4-0 instead of losing to the Warriors 2-4 in the first round. He should NEVER have changed his starting lineup in Game 1. I still can't believe he did that. I said to my friends then: he just told Golden State that we're scared of them. It was incredibly stupid. Really, the series ended right there. He waited too long to start double teaming Baron Davis. He played Jerry Stackhouse too much (as always). He played zone wayyyyyyyyyy too much. And he didn't play Austin Crochere enough.
Avery is a great coach. But he still has things to learn.
* Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, and Matt Barnes all decided at the same time to play at the pinacle of their potential. It's as simple as that. Sometimes you get hot...and they ALL got not just hot, but INCREDIBLY hot at the exact same time.
* The Golden State crowd is 800 times better than the Dallas crowd. And we all know how much I love my fair city, so this might hurt most of all to write. But it's true. Shame on you, cocaine-and-boobjob crowd (as Rhiner correctly calls you), who gets dressed up in clubbing clothes, high heals, and suit jackets to come watch a playoff game. Who sit their and drink, socialize, and try to be scene instead of watching the game and being seen. Go to the fucking W; we don't want you in here. And if you don't think a post about how pretenious my beloved city has gotten is coming down the line...well, then you don't know me very well.
* And, finally, Dirk. Dirk wasn't as bad as people think he was--notice he's last on the list of reasons we lost--but obviously he did not play well. Last year, Dirk was successful because he was willing to post up and grind out in the paint when the going got tough. He was not willing to do that this year, and that's really what killed him. It's not that he was scared; Dirk is no Michael Jordan, but he proved last year (and in game 5) that he is a fairly clutch player. He just wanted to beat this team playing HIS game...and his game was the worst possible matchup for this team. He has to be versatile to win, and he wasn't versatile in this series.

So that's what happened. Now remember, this isn't as bad of an upset as it appears; it was top ten bad, but I don't know if it was top 5 bad. The Mavs were slightly overrated; even though they had 67 wins, they were a team that never had injury problems and played hard every night while half of the conference tanked half of the season for the draft, and the other half all suffered injuries that put them out of contention at points of the year. No fault on the Mavs, just don't think just because of that number that I would rank them over many other teams in the last 20 years. On the other hand, the Golden State team that is playing now is not an 8 seed. This is a team that started the year with major injuries to key players (Davis had knee surgery in the offseason and only played 63 games; Jason Richardson missed almost all of the first half of the season and only played 51 games) and then traded half of their team for new players at mid-season (Stephen Jacksona and Al Harrington). So it was a fluke that this was an 8 seed; they're much better than the Lakers, better than the Nuggets, and better than the Rockets.

Like I said, it was the worst possible draw the Mavs could have faced. But as the old saying goes...

C'est la vie.

Phoenix Suns (2) v LA Lakers (7)
My prediction: Suns in 5
Result: Suns in 5

A team in dissaray meets one of the four premier teams in the league. Kobe can steal one game...but that's it. And that's pretty much exactly what happened.

I can't wait til the Lakers end up trading Andrew Bynum for a player half as good this offseason to try to appease Kobe...and then get to watch him in the All Star game in 2 years (you heard it here). Good times!

San Antonio Spurs (3) v Denver Nuggets (6)
My prediction: Spurs in 7
Result: Spurs in 5

Why, oh why, do I ever pick the Nuggets or Jayhawks to do well in anything? Why? No matter how good they look, in games or on paper, they're losers. It all goes wrong, and I end up looking stupid. And I know it's going to happen. I know that there are losers in the world, and that the Nuggets and Jayhawks are going to be losers, no matter what. But I always fall for their bullshit.

On paper, this--like the Mavs and Warriors--was the worst possible matchup for the Spurs. Coupla big guys (Camby and Nene) to guard Timmy and make him work defensively; two dynamic scores (Iverson and Melo) so that Bruce Bowen can't just take one star out of the game; point guard quick enough to guard Parker (Iverson); small forward quick and strong enough to guard Manu (Melo). Should have been great. And what happened?

The losers were losers. Again.

Utah Jazz (4) v Houston Rockets (5)
My prediction: Rockets in 7
Result: Jazz in 7

What a fantastic series. I'm so disappointed I didn't get to enjoy it more, because I was in such a depressed fog over what was happening with the Mavs that I didn't watch as much of this as I normally would have (I needed time on the off-nights to step away from the NBA). Poor TMac. The guy tries so hard, and the guy is SO GOOD. People don't realize that his teams are always overachieving. Mavs to 7 games that one year? Magic up 3-1 that one year? Those teams SUCKED. They should have never made it as far as they did. Yet TMac was able to carry them there--and yet, when talent finally won out, it becomes his fault. Well, let's look at this Rocket's team: they have TMac, one of the more overrated players in the game in Yao Ming, and a decent player in Shane Battier. THAT'S IT. There is no one else on that roster. Rafer Alston? Luther Head? Chucky Hayes? Look, they play real hard. But they SUCK. End of story.

As for the Jazz, I've been saying for years that this is a great team, and they're finally realizing it. Great point guard play with Williams and Fisher; big hole at 2-guard, but at least they have a good shooter (Giricek) and an athletic stopper (Brewer). They have the best defensive player in the league at Small Forward (AK-47), and one of the best all-around subs in the league coming off the bench (Matt Harpring, who's never got the respect he deserves because he's not flashy and plays in Utah), one of the without question top 20 and possibly top 10 best players in the league this year (Carlos Boozer), and a top ten best center in the league who creates huge matchup problems because of his shooting and passing ability. Oh, and he's crazy clutch, too (Okur).

So no, it's not TMac's fault that the Rockets fell short again. A good team met a much better team. It happens.

Okay...this is getting really long, so I'm going to do the Secound Round today and finish the playoffs off tomorrow.

SECOND ROUND
*NOTE* my prediction will be before the first two games of these series

Detroit Pistons (1) v Bulls (5)
My prediction: Pistons in 7

I thought Chicago would put up more of a fight than they did the first two games, since they were the Hot Team of the East (like the Warriors were in the West) in the first round. However, Detroit quickly went out and kicked the shit out of them. I figured Detroit would win because of the lack of low post scoring from the Bulls; I didn't think they'd get spanked because of it, which is what looks like will happen. The Bulls could get hot and come back, but it's doubtful.

This just goes to prove that the Bulls should have traded for Gasol during the season, and should definitely do so during the season. Depending on where their first round pick falls--if it's top 2 obviously keep it; if it's anything else--they should call the Grizz and say, "Gordon, Nocioni, Thomas, Wallace (just in case West is senile enough to take him; he's not, but one can hope), or our first round pick; choose any two of the three for Gasol." You can then allow yourself to be cajoled into something minor on top of those two (A second round pick; Malik Allen, maybe even Duhon, but I would hesitate on him) and make the deal. Easy, and both teams win, unless the Grizz take Ben Gordon, the most overrated player in the NBA.

Cavs (2) v Nets (6)
My prediction: Cavs in 6

The Cavs are playing too good right now, and the Nets are just not that good. It's as simple as that. The Nets are too smart of a veteran team to go out without a fight, but this series will never really be in doubt.

Suns (2) v Spurs (3)
My prediction: Suns in 7

Really, I have no idea. Watching the Spurs in the regular season, I thought they had slipped a notch. However, now it appears that they were simply playing possum: Tim Duncan is healthier than ever and is playing fantastic; Parker is playing great; Finley is on fire. However, Steve Nash is in full blown "I will not let us lose this series" mode, and I think his teammates respect him/are scared enough of him to respond. Plus, D'Antoni is doing a fantastic job coaching; he's learned the subtelties of the playoffs the last two years, and is showing a deft touch (such as starting Kurt Thomas to help with the boards in Game 2). Really, I can see this series going either way. Since I want the Suns to win, I'll go with Suns in 7, but this is basically a sit back and enjoy the ride.

Phoenix must win one of the next two in San Antonio.

Jazz (4) v Warriors (8)
My prediction: Utah in 6

I was very impressed with Golden State's first game performance; after their emotional win against their hated arch-rivals, I figured Game 1 would be a letdown game. Oh contraire, mon fraire. What a fantastic game. However, I think Utah wins this series, and while the games will all be close, they win it fairly easily (meaning the outcome is never in doubt). Remember: Utah's best player is a dominant low post scorer. The Warriors CANNOT stop that. Not even close. The 20 rebounds Boozer had in Game 1 was no fluke; he will EASILY average 15 rebounds in this series. The best defensive small forward in the game will take JRich out; no dynamite series for him. And while Williams can't stop Davis, he can play him to a standstill; he's big and strong enough to slow him down defensively, and is good enough offensively to where it will at least end up being break even. Once you throw in Okur, Harpring, and Milsap, and it's just too much firepower for the Jazz. The Warriors will fight valliantly, and they might even get hot in Game 3 and win that in a blowout, but as the series winds on this team will beat them up, and they won't be able to take it. Jazz possibly in 5, easily in 6.

Back with Conference and NBA Finals tomorrow...