2009 Western Conference Preview

I'm just going to get this out of the way right now: this would have been ENTIRELY different had it been written when it should have, the week before the season started. I'll tell you who when I get to them.

The "Dear God" Division

15. Memphis Grizzlies
Zach Randolph! Mike Conley! Marc Gasol! OJ Mayo! The NBA everybody!

BTW, here's another brilliant decision: so Allen Iverson goes to a team with significant playoff expectations and a lot of history last year, they ask him to come off the bench...and he completely self destructs, eventually leaving the season early and bringing the team down with him. So then, one of the newest teams in the league with no chance of making the playoffs decides to sign him...and they expect him to be okay with that?

Seriously, how stupid are you people?

14. Minnesota Timberwolves
Let's just call Corey Brewer a total and complete bust and move on already. Poor Al Jefferson.

13. Golden State Warriors
I can't believe Nellie is still working here. Do you think he had another nervous breakdown, and no one noticed since it's Golden State and not New York? Do you think he just wonders the halls, drooling slightly, and everyone pretends not to notice because they don't want to have to pay him and someone else? You deserve this Nellie. Enjoy this Hellhole that you built.

One more thing about Nellie: can you believe that he was hired as Pat Riley's initial successor? Is that not one of the worst hires EVER? "Okay let me think...we have a Knicks team built around one of the slowest players of all time (Ewing) that is built to do one thing: play hard-hitting defense that beats the Hell out of people. You know what we should do? Hire a coach who has the complete opposite philosophy: all offense, no D whatsoever, uptempo style of play that requires quick players, lots of 3 point shooting, no real need for a center, especially a traditional, back to the basket, slow one. I'm sure he'd fit in great, especially considering that all this will happen in New York, the biggest pressure cooker in the sporting world! There's no way this will fail!"

In the end, who suffered more: Nellie by having a nervous breakdown--but this happened what, two months into his first season, so he got out quickly--or Isiah who didn't have a nervous breakdown but ran the Knicks into the ground and was killed by the entire world for years?

I have Isiah winning, but only because of his suicide attempt, which ties him with Nellie in the Mental Trauma department. But really not enough is made about Don Nelson have a NB up there. New York: what a place!

12. LA Clippers
I loved the buzz the Clips were getting in the preseason. "Hey...Baron's in shape!" "Maybe Griffin can avoid the curse!" "Wow, Eric Gordon looks good!" Two things: 1) you can't beat the curse and 2) Dunlevey is still the coach. This is NOT the team that I missed on in the preseason.

The Frisky Young Team With No Chance

11. Sacramento Kings
The Kings are bad...but not awful. Jason Thompson is a solid PF. Spencer Hawes is a solid C, and I can't believe I'm writing that. Kevin Martin is a fantastic scorer. Tyreke Evans will play really hard since everyone shit on him so much at the draft. I was surprised at how much the media dumped on the Nocioni signing: he's a veteran player who's got good playoff experience, who plays hard and embraces the team concept. Great thing for this young team to learn. Are they going to threaten to make the playoffs? Not really. Are they a solid young team who with good draft picks and free agent signings can have a little something in 2-3 years? Yes.

The "If Only This Was The East" Division

10. Houston Rockets
I'd actually be willing to put the Rockets at eighth, except for one thing: TMac will come back this season. I think whenever he comes back, he TOTALLY fucks up this team's chemistry and style of play, and costs them enough games as they decide, "You know what? You're done. Just sit down." that they go from 8 to 10. Sorry Houston.

9. OKC Thunder
My favorite team not named "Mavericks" in the NBA. I love Kevin Durant as much as I loved KG at that age. I think Jeff Green is way underrated. I think Nenad Kristic was a great pickup for this team. I think Sefolosha gives them a good defensive presence that most young teams don't have. This team is the proverbial young team that knocks on the door of the playoffs this year, and kicks it in next year. Fantastic team, and I will drive to a Thunder game this year.

The Overrated Veteran Teams Who Could Easily Be Overtaken By The Thunder If They Lose Hope

8. New Orleans Hornets
Look, I love CP3 as much as anyone. Nice guy. Amazing player. But watch him play sometime, and by which him play, I mean watch him. Watch his face. Watch how he interacts with his teammates. Watch how much he yells.

Now I ask you this: does he look happy?

The answer is obvious. Now take my word on this: he's looked that way the last two years.

Trust me on this. This is the year that I think CP3 cracks. It's been building, because the Hornets have top 5 worst management in the NBA. I think the Scott thing was only the beginning; I think this team has a fire sale at the trade deadline, and I think CP3 will even be available is you want to take bad contracts with him. This would be the perfect time for the Hornets to do this, too, because of the Saints success (meaning no one in NO will care all that much).

If the Thunder grow up a little quicker than expected, the Hornets could easily find themselves out of the playoffs.

7. Utah Jazz
I love the Jazz, because they are the ultimate proof that statisticians alone cannot predict the NBA. This means you, overly haughty John Hollinger.

Watch this team. Do they look like the enjoy playing together?

Look at AK47. He went from being one of the most versatile players in the league, and a lock down defender (which requires maximum effort every night)...to a guy who just jogs his way through games because he hates his coach. Did Jerry Sloan "win" his fight with AK two years ago in that he doesn't complain publicly anymore? Sure. But what he got is a player who goes out and does just enough, instead of a max effort guy. Way to "win" Jerry.

Let's look at Boozer. He wanted to get his free agent payday last season. Not only did he not, and not only did the Jazz (correctly) choose his backup over him, but he knows that with the state of the NBA this offseason he is NOT getting paid. So now you have a guy who is so into money that he was willing to give up playing with Lebron in his prime AND stab a blind man in the back. You think he's happy? You think he's playing hard?

Watch this Jazz team, and you will see a collection of extremely talented players who are not tough enough to do any real damage because either A) they're soft (AK, Okur, Brewer, Millsap) or B) because they're pissy and unhappy (AK, Boozer). When the going gets tough, the Jazz checks out. With their talent, that's good enough to get them 7th.

6. Phoenix Suns
Thursday night is a perfect example of what Phoenix is. The jump out to an 8-1 start...but they are playing the worst teams in the NBA. They play the Lakers...and they get their asses handed to them.

Phoenix will once again be fun to watch, but they're the classic "Good enough to beat the bad, not really a threat to beat the good" team.

The Second Tier

5. Your Dallas Mavericks!
Did this summer's offseason signings hurt the Mavs in the long run? Yes, they did, because the Kidd and Marion contracts aren't good. In the short term, however, it was a very successful offseason. Marion gives the Mavs the athletic presence they lacked. Quinton Ross was an outstanding pickup; the Mavs now FINALLY have a defensive presence somewhere in the backcourt. Losing Bass hurts--a lot--but Gooden is a serviceable backup power forward.

The biggest plus the Mavs have is a rejuvenated Dirk. We saw how well he played in the playoffs last year with the pressure of his possible baby mama thief hanging over his head. Now not only is he rid of her, but right before the season starts, he finds out she's not pregnant? He's home free, and can just go play? I expect this to be one of the best season's of Dirk's career, and so far he hasn't disappointed.

4. Portland Trailblazers
I think Portland is in real trouble of "Pulling a Timberwolves" and getting stuck here. They have a very, very good team...but they don't have a great team, and quite frankly, their lack of success in the offseason may have doomed them to never having a great team. They remind me of KG's Timberwolves teams in his prime. The Blazers team is better than KG's teams were, but Roy isn't the star that KG is/was.

I'm just not sure where Portland goes from here, because I don't think that Greg Oden is the answer. Time will tell, but I think Portland, in the end, will do what it always does: have a very good team that is ultimately disappointed.

The True Contenders

3. Denver Nuggets
This. This is the team that I had wrong in the preseason. I would have had them ranked no higher than 6th. I was totally on the "everything went right for Denver last year; no way it's going to happen this year" bandwagon. Well, after watching their first game against the Jazz, I knew I was wrong.

This team is still as tough as ever; somewhat surprisingly, Birdman and Nene have looked just as good as they did last season, and Ken looks as healthy as ever. Chauncey still has it. Ty Lawson is exactly what I thought he would be (and this is why I wanted him to slip to the Mavs so badly): a tough, athletic point guard who will be a perfect backup to the veteran Chauncey.

So the cast looks great. That's all fine and good. In the end, though, it all boils down to Melo. And for the first time ever in his career...Melo looks like he belongs in the Wade/Lebron category. He's played with fire and passion, but played smart as well. His body looks great; Melo has always had a little bit of baby fat, so that you could tell, "Yeah, he works out in the offseason...but not too much." That's gone now. He's my pick for NBA MVP this season, and the Nuggets are a legitimate threat to win the title.

2. San Antonio Spurs
Pop can shut up about the Gasol trade now. Richard Jefferson is EXACTLY what the Spurs needed: an athletic SF who is a good defender and can take the ball to the hole and hit a wide open 3. He's an even better Sean Elliot. Hell, they even kind of look alike.

You know who else I love on the Spurs and will help them immensely as the season goes on? George Hill. He's the perfect bench player on a championship team: a tough role player who comes in, plays tough D, hits all kinds of shots, knows his role and is happy to do it. He's also young enough to add more athleticism to this lineup, which you forget sometimes because he plays like such a savvy veteran.

The Spurs are right back in it this year. They can make sure to send some rings to Milwaukee like the Lakers should have done to the Grizzlies.

1. LA Lakers
Of all the championship contenders, the Lakers are the only ones who got worse.

Make no mistake people: Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest is a downgrade. Ron Artests strengths used to be that he could guard almost anyone on the court; he was shockingly quick for a guy of his size and strength (thank you, steroids!). Now though? He's lost most of his quickness. Artest can still guard PF's, but he can no longer hang with quicker SF's or SG's. He's also TERRIBLE offensively: Artest is the king of the "It's my turn to shoot!" guys, and will abandon the offense at a moments notice to jack up an awful three. Add in the nutcase factor to the steady, happy to play in Kobe's shadow that Ariza was and you have a HUGE downgrade.

The Lakers are still a great team, and I they will most likely finish in first place. But they won't win the championship. The Celtics and Spurs will both beat them, and I'd even give Denver even odds at taking them down.

There you go everyone. Just remember: the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!

2009 Eastern Conference Preview: An Addendum

Check out the cover of SI's NBA Preview issue:



I think this sums up why the Shaq in Cleveland experiment is going to fail perfectly.

Shaq--who again is supposed to be the THIRD banana on this team, behind Lebron and even Mo Williams--instead is featured on the cover, pushing Lebron back, stepping towards the forefront of the picture, and menacingly moving towards the lens to fill up the picture. Lebron--the star--instead coolly is sitting in the back, arms crossed, looking tired/bored, like he's willing to let this buffoon have his bluster because he's tired of having to listen to it.

Now, I'm sure that Lebron is just trying to look cool, and Shaq is just trying to be Shaq: the big, intimidating guy. And I'm sure Lebron looks a little tired because they'd been taking pictures for an hour and he was ready to move on and do something else.

By the end of the season, though, I think that's exactly going to be Lebron's attitude. I think he's going to be tired of having to almost singlehandedly carry this team. I think he's going to be tired of listening to Shaq run his mouth and play mediocre basketball while he weighs closer to 370 then he does to his listed 325. Most of all, I think he's going to realize that he's not going to win a championship because of the same reasons he didn't last season. And that's going to lead to the tired face.

Sometimes a picture does tell all.

2009 Eastern Conference Preview

Sorry I'm horribly behind on this. As always, I'll be honest and call it when I'm changing what my Preseason opinions are after the first coupla weeks play.

Unconscionably Bad

15. New York Knicks
It's getting to the point where even I am beginning to wonder if Lebron is going to want to come here. The only reason this team isn't even more maligned is because the Isiah Thomas era is just incredibly, unspeakably bad.

14. New Jersey Nets
If that Russian billionaire takes on Jay-Z as a minority owner, then I promise that this is where Lebron will go. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's fun to think about. Do they have some promising young players? Sure. But the bottom line is, this team has less talent this year than they did last year. As far as their standings this season, that's all that really matters.

13. Milwaukee Bucks
Do not let the Bucks strong (if 3-2 can be described as strong) start fool you. When a broken down Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Brandon Jennings are by far your three best players...you're in trouble man. I mean seriously, how is Luke Ridnour still starting in the league? How is this happening?

A Glimmer of Hope...But That's About It

12. Charlotte Bobcats
If Larry Brown can pull this off--meaning get the Bobcats in the playoffs--then if will be the greatest job he's done in his career, surpassing even getting the Clippers in. But he won't. The Bobcats are what they've always been: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just an oft-injured fantasy league team.

11. Indiana Pacers
You know...even though I like this team and think they have a better chance than the Bobcats, I just can't shake the feeling that the Pacers are the same team: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just a fantasy league team. They're better because they don't get injured as much, but as much as it pains me to admit it, they have a worse coach than the Bobcats. In the end, if you're hoping for Tyler Hansbrough to do something for you...well, then you're hoping for a big white boy to do something for you. Good luck with that.

10. Detroit Pistons
This team is going to end up being awful. AWFUL. Rodney Stuckey is overrated, Rip Hamilton is one of the most overrated players of all time and is getting old (including him in the "player who is barely holding on on his athleticism and will one day show up and have slipped just a little because of age, but that little killed him"), Tayshaun Prince is getting old, and they paid $100 million for Ben Gordon and Charlie V. Read that sentence again.

THEY PAID $100 MILLION FOR BEN GORDON AND CHARLIE V.

I will begrudgingly acknowledge that Gordon--while a waste 95% of the time--isn't a total and complete waste. But we saw how well it went when they brought in a player to play Rip's position last year (more on that later). And Charlie V...really? First of all, forwards who score 15 points and pull down 7 rebounds are a dime a dozen. The only reason he was doing that was because he was motivated to get his one big contract. HE NOW HAS THAT BIG CONTRACT.

The Pistons are going to be awful.

9. Philadelphia 76ers
Another team that on paper has good talent. On paper, their starting five looks like it can play with about anyone. Overpaid? Sure. But talented? Yes.

However...

This team looked awful with Elton Brand last year. AWFUL. And that was with a fairly savvy vet like Andre Miller running the point. Now Lou Williams--a shooting guard in a point guard's body if there ever was one--is going to be able to navigate the delicate balance between uptempo team and halfcourt team, bringing out the best in two different skill sets (Brand & Dalembert's, AI & Young's)? I think not.

Once Again...The Team That Could Go Either Way

8. Washington Wizards
No clue about Washington. Arenas could finally be healthy and deadly...or his career could be over. Tough Juice could be in the best shape of his career since he kicked the Dew...or he could flatline because he no longer has the Dew in him. Jamison could be back to his old self...or his age could be catching up to him, and injuries will take their toll. Randy Foye could be the solid bench guard they've always needed...or he could continue to be as inconsistent as he was in Minnesota. Andrew Blatche could harness his considerable physical talents...or he could continue to tease with his talent and put up little of substance.

I'm not even as worried about their 2-6 start: between Jamison being out and Arenas getting back in the swing of things, that was to be expected. Or this could be what this team is. It's one of those squads that there's really no way to predict either way.

The "Meh" Teams

7. Chicago Bulls
Incredible job against Boston in the playoffs. Derrick Rose will continue to get better. Luol Deng back to health.

That being said...

The ceiling for this team still just isn't that high. In the end, their offense comes from hitting jumpers. If they go in, they win. If they miss, they don't. It's really as simple as that, even with Rose improving. I hate to write this, but this team will miss Ben Gordon, in that he was their one X Factor. They are a middle of the pack team now...whereas with Gordon there were games he would shoot them out of, but there was the occasional game (or playoff series, as the Celtics found out) that he could keep them in. He made their ceiling higher and their floor lower. Now they're just in the middle.

It's okay. It'll all change when they get Dwyane Wade next season. Hey, speaking of...

6. Toronto Raptors
So sad that Turk ended up here. Hedo needs to be on a team that is either lacking a point guard or has a scoring point guard; he needs to be on a team that has at least two other primary scoring options, so he can pick up little points, run the offense, and hit the clutch shots.

So where did he go? He went to a team that has one scoring option and whose second best player is a point guard who excels at running the offense. I am now rolling my eyes.

If wins were decided by who passes the best and executes offensive plays best, the Raptors would be a favorite. But they're decided by who scores more points than the other team. This does not bode well for the Raptors.

5. Miami Heat
Hey, Pat Riley? Why don't you ask Tom Hicks how they "if you come, I'll build it" approach works with people. Hicks said that to Rangers' fans before the season about spending money on free agents, and the pissed off fanbase stayed away even as the Rangers had a very good season. Riley said (and did) the same to Wade, by doing nothing to improve the team since Wade didn't sign an extension.

Does Wade like money? Sure he does. But Wade strikes me as the type of player who would go to not only a more talented roster, but a talented roster that fits his skill sets (team that needs a dynamic penetrator/consistent scorer, plenty of jump shooters to play off of him), become the hero of his hometown and carve out his own legend in the footsteps of another famous shooting guard. Especially since the Bulls will have decent cap room--not as much as Miami, true, but still a good chunk of change--and I can see Wade pulling the hometown move.

And now to tie that back in to this season: Miami has EXACTLY the same team it did last season, in which Wade had to carry too much of the load, put up amazing stats, but was too tired physically and mentally once the playoffs rolled around.

Remember Pat: the line is "IF YOU BUILD IT, they will come." Or "he will stay".

4. Atlanta Hawks
The personification of a Meh team. Nice talent, beat all the bad teams, occasionally beat a good team, no real threat in the playoffs whatsoever. The sad part here is that the East is so bad they'll get fourth.

The Contenders

3. Orlando Magic
In some ways, Orlando had an outstanding offseason. They held onto arguably the best backup center in the league. The stole the PERFECT compliment to Dwight Howard for the Mavs: an undersized power forward who plays tough, attacks the rim, and has an excellent 15 foot jump shot. The acquired a former All Star basically for Courtney Lee.

The problem? They lost their most important player. You will never win a championship with Jameer Nelson as your primary distributor. Never. It's not going to happen. Turkoglu was the point guard, running the offense, making sure the right guy had the ball, making sure everything flowed. On top of that, he was by far their best clutch player. How many clutch shots do you see Vince knocking down?

The Magic got better on paper. But they got worse on the court.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
In fairness to Danny Ferry, I do like the acquisitions of Annthony Parker and Jamario Moon. Cleveland had a lack of athletic wing players (can you even name a small forward/shooting guard on their team other than Lebron? Okay...but could you if Daniel Gipson's nickname wasn't "Boobie"? Yeah, I didn't think so.) was a huge issue, and their addition fills that void. So good job.

The rest of the offseason was awful.

I'm not going to write a lot about the Shaq trade, because I think everyone agrees that it was awful. Let's just say that I'll never buy into the "Shaq can be a third banana" argument, and a guy who weighs 400 pounds isn't going to dominate for you. The biggest problem, to me, is this simple question that was exposed in the playoffs last year: who other than Lebron can score the ball? The answer is still no one. Mo Williams would be a championship third banana to Lebron, but as a second banana, he ain't getting the job done. For all their maneuvering this offseason, the Cavs still ignored that crucial fact. And in the end...it's what's going to cost them Lebron.

1. Boston Celtics
Do I have concerns about this team? Of course. I worry about KG's knee; he'll never be the same player he was again, the question is just how close can he get? Can Marquis Daniels keep the crazy in line enough to be the bench swingman the C's desperately need? Does Sheed really have anything left, and can he really live with coming off the bench? What the Hell is going on with Rondo and how is this offseason going to affect them?

In the end, I believe in the Celtics for two reasons: 1) they got more talented, and addressed their holes from last season (we'll see if what they did to address them works, but they did at least address them, unlike Cleveland), and 2) in the end, when it's time to suit up and play, I think this is still a group that is focused enough on winning to ignore all the other stuff and get the job done.

For one more season.

Western Conference tomorrow...