2009 Eastern Conference Preview
Sorry I'm horribly behind on this. As always, I'll be honest and call it when I'm changing what my Preseason opinions are after the first coupla weeks play.
Unconscionably Bad
15. New York Knicks
It's getting to the point where even I am beginning to wonder if Lebron is going to want to come here. The only reason this team isn't even more maligned is because the Isiah Thomas era is just incredibly, unspeakably bad.
14. New Jersey Nets
If that Russian billionaire takes on Jay-Z as a minority owner, then I promise that this is where Lebron will go. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's fun to think about. Do they have some promising young players? Sure. But the bottom line is, this team has less talent this year than they did last year. As far as their standings this season, that's all that really matters.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Do not let the Bucks strong (if 3-2 can be described as strong) start fool you. When a broken down Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Brandon Jennings are by far your three best players...you're in trouble man. I mean seriously, how is Luke Ridnour still starting in the league? How is this happening?
A Glimmer of Hope...But That's About It
12. Charlotte Bobcats
If Larry Brown can pull this off--meaning get the Bobcats in the playoffs--then if will be the greatest job he's done in his career, surpassing even getting the Clippers in. But he won't. The Bobcats are what they've always been: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just an oft-injured fantasy league team.
11. Indiana Pacers
You know...even though I like this team and think they have a better chance than the Bobcats, I just can't shake the feeling that the Pacers are the same team: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just a fantasy league team. They're better because they don't get injured as much, but as much as it pains me to admit it, they have a worse coach than the Bobcats. In the end, if you're hoping for Tyler Hansbrough to do something for you...well, then you're hoping for a big white boy to do something for you. Good luck with that.
10. Detroit Pistons
This team is going to end up being awful. AWFUL. Rodney Stuckey is overrated, Rip Hamilton is one of the most overrated players of all time and is getting old (including him in the "player who is barely holding on on his athleticism and will one day show up and have slipped just a little because of age, but that little killed him"), Tayshaun Prince is getting old, and they paid $100 million for Ben Gordon and Charlie V. Read that sentence again.
THEY PAID $100 MILLION FOR BEN GORDON AND CHARLIE V.
I will begrudgingly acknowledge that Gordon--while a waste 95% of the time--isn't a total and complete waste. But we saw how well it went when they brought in a player to play Rip's position last year (more on that later). And Charlie V...really? First of all, forwards who score 15 points and pull down 7 rebounds are a dime a dozen. The only reason he was doing that was because he was motivated to get his one big contract. HE NOW HAS THAT BIG CONTRACT.
The Pistons are going to be awful.
9. Philadelphia 76ers
Another team that on paper has good talent. On paper, their starting five looks like it can play with about anyone. Overpaid? Sure. But talented? Yes.
However...
This team looked awful with Elton Brand last year. AWFUL. And that was with a fairly savvy vet like Andre Miller running the point. Now Lou Williams--a shooting guard in a point guard's body if there ever was one--is going to be able to navigate the delicate balance between uptempo team and halfcourt team, bringing out the best in two different skill sets (Brand & Dalembert's, AI & Young's)? I think not.
Once Again...The Team That Could Go Either Way
8. Washington Wizards
No clue about Washington. Arenas could finally be healthy and deadly...or his career could be over. Tough Juice could be in the best shape of his career since he kicked the Dew...or he could flatline because he no longer has the Dew in him. Jamison could be back to his old self...or his age could be catching up to him, and injuries will take their toll. Randy Foye could be the solid bench guard they've always needed...or he could continue to be as inconsistent as he was in Minnesota. Andrew Blatche could harness his considerable physical talents...or he could continue to tease with his talent and put up little of substance.
I'm not even as worried about their 2-6 start: between Jamison being out and Arenas getting back in the swing of things, that was to be expected. Or this could be what this team is. It's one of those squads that there's really no way to predict either way.
The "Meh" Teams
7. Chicago Bulls
Incredible job against Boston in the playoffs. Derrick Rose will continue to get better. Luol Deng back to health.
That being said...
The ceiling for this team still just isn't that high. In the end, their offense comes from hitting jumpers. If they go in, they win. If they miss, they don't. It's really as simple as that, even with Rose improving. I hate to write this, but this team will miss Ben Gordon, in that he was their one X Factor. They are a middle of the pack team now...whereas with Gordon there were games he would shoot them out of, but there was the occasional game (or playoff series, as the Celtics found out) that he could keep them in. He made their ceiling higher and their floor lower. Now they're just in the middle.
It's okay. It'll all change when they get Dwyane Wade next season. Hey, speaking of...
6. Toronto Raptors
So sad that Turk ended up here. Hedo needs to be on a team that is either lacking a point guard or has a scoring point guard; he needs to be on a team that has at least two other primary scoring options, so he can pick up little points, run the offense, and hit the clutch shots.
So where did he go? He went to a team that has one scoring option and whose second best player is a point guard who excels at running the offense. I am now rolling my eyes.
If wins were decided by who passes the best and executes offensive plays best, the Raptors would be a favorite. But they're decided by who scores more points than the other team. This does not bode well for the Raptors.
5. Miami Heat
Hey, Pat Riley? Why don't you ask Tom Hicks how they "if you come, I'll build it" approach works with people. Hicks said that to Rangers' fans before the season about spending money on free agents, and the pissed off fanbase stayed away even as the Rangers had a very good season. Riley said (and did) the same to Wade, by doing nothing to improve the team since Wade didn't sign an extension.
Does Wade like money? Sure he does. But Wade strikes me as the type of player who would go to not only a more talented roster, but a talented roster that fits his skill sets (team that needs a dynamic penetrator/consistent scorer, plenty of jump shooters to play off of him), become the hero of his hometown and carve out his own legend in the footsteps of another famous shooting guard. Especially since the Bulls will have decent cap room--not as much as Miami, true, but still a good chunk of change--and I can see Wade pulling the hometown move.
And now to tie that back in to this season: Miami has EXACTLY the same team it did last season, in which Wade had to carry too much of the load, put up amazing stats, but was too tired physically and mentally once the playoffs rolled around.
Remember Pat: the line is "IF YOU BUILD IT, they will come." Or "he will stay".
4. Atlanta Hawks
The personification of a Meh team. Nice talent, beat all the bad teams, occasionally beat a good team, no real threat in the playoffs whatsoever. The sad part here is that the East is so bad they'll get fourth.
The Contenders
3. Orlando Magic
In some ways, Orlando had an outstanding offseason. They held onto arguably the best backup center in the league. The stole the PERFECT compliment to Dwight Howard for the Mavs: an undersized power forward who plays tough, attacks the rim, and has an excellent 15 foot jump shot. The acquired a former All Star basically for Courtney Lee.
The problem? They lost their most important player. You will never win a championship with Jameer Nelson as your primary distributor. Never. It's not going to happen. Turkoglu was the point guard, running the offense, making sure the right guy had the ball, making sure everything flowed. On top of that, he was by far their best clutch player. How many clutch shots do you see Vince knocking down?
The Magic got better on paper. But they got worse on the court.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
In fairness to Danny Ferry, I do like the acquisitions of Annthony Parker and Jamario Moon. Cleveland had a lack of athletic wing players (can you even name a small forward/shooting guard on their team other than Lebron? Okay...but could you if Daniel Gipson's nickname wasn't "Boobie"? Yeah, I didn't think so.) was a huge issue, and their addition fills that void. So good job.
The rest of the offseason was awful.
I'm not going to write a lot about the Shaq trade, because I think everyone agrees that it was awful. Let's just say that I'll never buy into the "Shaq can be a third banana" argument, and a guy who weighs 400 pounds isn't going to dominate for you. The biggest problem, to me, is this simple question that was exposed in the playoffs last year: who other than Lebron can score the ball? The answer is still no one. Mo Williams would be a championship third banana to Lebron, but as a second banana, he ain't getting the job done. For all their maneuvering this offseason, the Cavs still ignored that crucial fact. And in the end...it's what's going to cost them Lebron.
1. Boston Celtics
Do I have concerns about this team? Of course. I worry about KG's knee; he'll never be the same player he was again, the question is just how close can he get? Can Marquis Daniels keep the crazy in line enough to be the bench swingman the C's desperately need? Does Sheed really have anything left, and can he really live with coming off the bench? What the Hell is going on with Rondo and how is this offseason going to affect them?
In the end, I believe in the Celtics for two reasons: 1) they got more talented, and addressed their holes from last season (we'll see if what they did to address them works, but they did at least address them, unlike Cleveland), and 2) in the end, when it's time to suit up and play, I think this is still a group that is focused enough on winning to ignore all the other stuff and get the job done.
For one more season.
Western Conference tomorrow...
Unconscionably Bad
15. New York Knicks
It's getting to the point where even I am beginning to wonder if Lebron is going to want to come here. The only reason this team isn't even more maligned is because the Isiah Thomas era is just incredibly, unspeakably bad.
14. New Jersey Nets
If that Russian billionaire takes on Jay-Z as a minority owner, then I promise that this is where Lebron will go. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's fun to think about. Do they have some promising young players? Sure. But the bottom line is, this team has less talent this year than they did last year. As far as their standings this season, that's all that really matters.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Do not let the Bucks strong (if 3-2 can be described as strong) start fool you. When a broken down Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Brandon Jennings are by far your three best players...you're in trouble man. I mean seriously, how is Luke Ridnour still starting in the league? How is this happening?
A Glimmer of Hope...But That's About It
12. Charlotte Bobcats
If Larry Brown can pull this off--meaning get the Bobcats in the playoffs--then if will be the greatest job he's done in his career, surpassing even getting the Clippers in. But he won't. The Bobcats are what they've always been: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just an oft-injured fantasy league team.
11. Indiana Pacers
You know...even though I like this team and think they have a better chance than the Bobcats, I just can't shake the feeling that the Pacers are the same team: an intriguing looking team on paper that is really just a fantasy league team. They're better because they don't get injured as much, but as much as it pains me to admit it, they have a worse coach than the Bobcats. In the end, if you're hoping for Tyler Hansbrough to do something for you...well, then you're hoping for a big white boy to do something for you. Good luck with that.
10. Detroit Pistons
This team is going to end up being awful. AWFUL. Rodney Stuckey is overrated, Rip Hamilton is one of the most overrated players of all time and is getting old (including him in the "player who is barely holding on on his athleticism and will one day show up and have slipped just a little because of age, but that little killed him"), Tayshaun Prince is getting old, and they paid $100 million for Ben Gordon and Charlie V. Read that sentence again.
THEY PAID $100 MILLION FOR BEN GORDON AND CHARLIE V.
I will begrudgingly acknowledge that Gordon--while a waste 95% of the time--isn't a total and complete waste. But we saw how well it went when they brought in a player to play Rip's position last year (more on that later). And Charlie V...really? First of all, forwards who score 15 points and pull down 7 rebounds are a dime a dozen. The only reason he was doing that was because he was motivated to get his one big contract. HE NOW HAS THAT BIG CONTRACT.
The Pistons are going to be awful.
9. Philadelphia 76ers
Another team that on paper has good talent. On paper, their starting five looks like it can play with about anyone. Overpaid? Sure. But talented? Yes.
However...
This team looked awful with Elton Brand last year. AWFUL. And that was with a fairly savvy vet like Andre Miller running the point. Now Lou Williams--a shooting guard in a point guard's body if there ever was one--is going to be able to navigate the delicate balance between uptempo team and halfcourt team, bringing out the best in two different skill sets (Brand & Dalembert's, AI & Young's)? I think not.
Once Again...The Team That Could Go Either Way
8. Washington Wizards
No clue about Washington. Arenas could finally be healthy and deadly...or his career could be over. Tough Juice could be in the best shape of his career since he kicked the Dew...or he could flatline because he no longer has the Dew in him. Jamison could be back to his old self...or his age could be catching up to him, and injuries will take their toll. Randy Foye could be the solid bench guard they've always needed...or he could continue to be as inconsistent as he was in Minnesota. Andrew Blatche could harness his considerable physical talents...or he could continue to tease with his talent and put up little of substance.
I'm not even as worried about their 2-6 start: between Jamison being out and Arenas getting back in the swing of things, that was to be expected. Or this could be what this team is. It's one of those squads that there's really no way to predict either way.
The "Meh" Teams
7. Chicago Bulls
Incredible job against Boston in the playoffs. Derrick Rose will continue to get better. Luol Deng back to health.
That being said...
The ceiling for this team still just isn't that high. In the end, their offense comes from hitting jumpers. If they go in, they win. If they miss, they don't. It's really as simple as that, even with Rose improving. I hate to write this, but this team will miss Ben Gordon, in that he was their one X Factor. They are a middle of the pack team now...whereas with Gordon there were games he would shoot them out of, but there was the occasional game (or playoff series, as the Celtics found out) that he could keep them in. He made their ceiling higher and their floor lower. Now they're just in the middle.
It's okay. It'll all change when they get Dwyane Wade next season. Hey, speaking of...
6. Toronto Raptors
So sad that Turk ended up here. Hedo needs to be on a team that is either lacking a point guard or has a scoring point guard; he needs to be on a team that has at least two other primary scoring options, so he can pick up little points, run the offense, and hit the clutch shots.
So where did he go? He went to a team that has one scoring option and whose second best player is a point guard who excels at running the offense. I am now rolling my eyes.
If wins were decided by who passes the best and executes offensive plays best, the Raptors would be a favorite. But they're decided by who scores more points than the other team. This does not bode well for the Raptors.
5. Miami Heat
Hey, Pat Riley? Why don't you ask Tom Hicks how they "if you come, I'll build it" approach works with people. Hicks said that to Rangers' fans before the season about spending money on free agents, and the pissed off fanbase stayed away even as the Rangers had a very good season. Riley said (and did) the same to Wade, by doing nothing to improve the team since Wade didn't sign an extension.
Does Wade like money? Sure he does. But Wade strikes me as the type of player who would go to not only a more talented roster, but a talented roster that fits his skill sets (team that needs a dynamic penetrator/consistent scorer, plenty of jump shooters to play off of him), become the hero of his hometown and carve out his own legend in the footsteps of another famous shooting guard. Especially since the Bulls will have decent cap room--not as much as Miami, true, but still a good chunk of change--and I can see Wade pulling the hometown move.
And now to tie that back in to this season: Miami has EXACTLY the same team it did last season, in which Wade had to carry too much of the load, put up amazing stats, but was too tired physically and mentally once the playoffs rolled around.
Remember Pat: the line is "IF YOU BUILD IT, they will come." Or "he will stay".
4. Atlanta Hawks
The personification of a Meh team. Nice talent, beat all the bad teams, occasionally beat a good team, no real threat in the playoffs whatsoever. The sad part here is that the East is so bad they'll get fourth.
The Contenders
3. Orlando Magic
In some ways, Orlando had an outstanding offseason. They held onto arguably the best backup center in the league. The stole the PERFECT compliment to Dwight Howard for the Mavs: an undersized power forward who plays tough, attacks the rim, and has an excellent 15 foot jump shot. The acquired a former All Star basically for Courtney Lee.
The problem? They lost their most important player. You will never win a championship with Jameer Nelson as your primary distributor. Never. It's not going to happen. Turkoglu was the point guard, running the offense, making sure the right guy had the ball, making sure everything flowed. On top of that, he was by far their best clutch player. How many clutch shots do you see Vince knocking down?
The Magic got better on paper. But they got worse on the court.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
In fairness to Danny Ferry, I do like the acquisitions of Annthony Parker and Jamario Moon. Cleveland had a lack of athletic wing players (can you even name a small forward/shooting guard on their team other than Lebron? Okay...but could you if Daniel Gipson's nickname wasn't "Boobie"? Yeah, I didn't think so.) was a huge issue, and their addition fills that void. So good job.
The rest of the offseason was awful.
I'm not going to write a lot about the Shaq trade, because I think everyone agrees that it was awful. Let's just say that I'll never buy into the "Shaq can be a third banana" argument, and a guy who weighs 400 pounds isn't going to dominate for you. The biggest problem, to me, is this simple question that was exposed in the playoffs last year: who other than Lebron can score the ball? The answer is still no one. Mo Williams would be a championship third banana to Lebron, but as a second banana, he ain't getting the job done. For all their maneuvering this offseason, the Cavs still ignored that crucial fact. And in the end...it's what's going to cost them Lebron.
1. Boston Celtics
Do I have concerns about this team? Of course. I worry about KG's knee; he'll never be the same player he was again, the question is just how close can he get? Can Marquis Daniels keep the crazy in line enough to be the bench swingman the C's desperately need? Does Sheed really have anything left, and can he really live with coming off the bench? What the Hell is going on with Rondo and how is this offseason going to affect them?
In the end, I believe in the Celtics for two reasons: 1) they got more talented, and addressed their holes from last season (we'll see if what they did to address them works, but they did at least address them, unlike Cleveland), and 2) in the end, when it's time to suit up and play, I think this is still a group that is focused enough on winning to ignore all the other stuff and get the job done.
For one more season.
Western Conference tomorrow...
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 9:06 PM
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