2015 NBA Trade Deadline

Jim Ross is starting to freak out right now as he recognizes the music.  That's right...we just had such an utterly insane Trade Deadline, it's time to bust open the doors and for PJ's Place to come out of retirement!  For one night only:  how the trade deadline has reshaped the Western Conference.  I'm going to rank the playoff teams as I see them right now:

1. Memphis Grizzlies:  It wasn't a trade deadline deal, but I still LOVE the Jeff Green acquisition.  The only whole they had was scoring punch at the wing, and they absolutely solved it with Green, who can actually play 2-4 depending on the matchups and is perfectly happy being the second or third banana.  Provided ZBo doesn't punch anyone, I think the Grizzlies finally make it to the NBA Finals.  
2. Portland Trailblazers:  I love Arron Afflalo.  Again, I think he's exactly what this team needed:  a wing defender who can score enough to keep teams honest, but isn't going to look for 15 shots a game.  He's a veteran who has played for crappy teams enough years that he will do anything now that he's on a playoff squad.  And while I hate Nic Batum as a starter, I like Batum as a bench guy that you can put in in a playoff game, see if he's got anything that game, and then sit his ass the rest of the game if he's having one of his crappy French games.  
3. OKC Thunder:  I hate to put them this high, especially in this "everything that can go wrong will go wrong" season, but I love the additions and the subtractions they've made.  First of all, even if they got nothing back for them, I think losing Jackson (because he was pouting about shots and the team was sick of him) and Perk (so Scott Brook's dumb ass would stop playing him, and everyone would stop talking about how stupid it is that they've kept him all these years) was addition by subtraction.  So just by them being gone, they get a +.
   
   However, they not only managed to get rid of two guys who should have had almost 0 value, they got good pieces back for them:  Kanter is a big who can't defend but can score, but he matches perfectly with Ibaka, a big who can defend and can't really score (yes, I know he has a good jumper, but that's not what the Thunder needed from him).  The Ibaka/Adams/Kanter triumvirate at 4 and 5 is now a great set for the playoffs.  And I know that people tend to write DJ Augustin off--and given his first few years in the league, it's totally understandable--but in his last couple of years he's actually morphed into a nice point guard.  Let's put it this way:  he's 1000x better than Derek Fischer.
   
   The biggest problem I have left with the Thunder is two things.  The first is momentum:  again, this is a season where anything that could go wrong has, and when that happens to teams it tends to keep happening to them.  So I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop there.  Second though is the team's attitude:  anyone who's watched the Thunder for five minutes this season can tell that something is wrong with this team; the attitude has just been bad all year.  I do think this is what they needed to fix that, which is why I have them up here; however, if I'm wrong, and they still aren't all on the same page, then they'll be out in the 1st round.  But for a team that really had very little to trade with, they've done an outstanding job.  
4. Golden State Warriors:  Yes, they're fun to watch, and yes, they're the best team in the league right now, but I still have trouble seeing this team make the Western Conference Finals, let alone the NBA Finals.  Sorry, I'm still just not a believer.  The did the right thing by standing pat though, they need to ride this out.  
5. LA Clippers:  Blake Griffin being out is either going to be fantastic for this team, or absolutely horrible for this team, and there's no middle ground, and for one reason:  DeAndre Jordan.  Jordan is either going to come out of the stretch with some much needed crunch time play and offensive touches, and it will help him grow into a much more effective threat that can lessen the burden on Griffin in the playoffs and make them a more devastating combo.  Or it could make him think, "Hey man, I should have been getting more touches all along!  I'm as good as he is!  And it's a contract year!  F that guy, I want the ball!" and it makes their already crappy team chemistry (they are slightly ahead of OKC as the "Good Team That Looks Like They're Sick of Playing With Each Other" award winner) even worse.  There's no middle ground, we'll just see how it goes.  
6. Houston Rockets:  Yes, picking up KJ McDaniels was another great asset for Dork Elvis to pick up.  However, that won't help at all with either getting into the playoffs or in the playoffs.  And don't make me laugh at you about Prigioni.  
7. San Antonio Spurs:  I'm sorry, but I've been saying this for years:  Kawahi Leonard is not a max guy.  He's a very good role player who is in the absolute most perfect position he could possibly be in...and as soon as Duncan, Manu, and Pop leave, he'll never be close to that perfect of a position again.  Everyone thinks the Spurs have some magic plan for waiting to sign Leonard to his extension, but I think it's really because they are panicing over the fact that they know he's not worth what he's going to end up getting.  
8. Dallas Mavericks:  I'm really, really, REALLY concerned.  They've looked awful lately, and while yes, Amare is an upgrade over everyone on our bench, that doesn't mean he's actually SOLVING any of our bench problems.  This team is starting to look like the older players are running on fumes and getting a little frustrated, and every day Rondo is not out there learning how to play with these guys is a huge loss of time because as good as Rondo can be, he takes a lot of getting used to.  Even though he's a head case, I think the Mavs need to make a run at Larry Sanders:  we've got to get a backup big who can rebound and block shots, and if he's really a completely nuts pothead I think the team would be fine just getting rid of him and moving on in that worst case scenario.  But they way they are now--even with a best case scenario with Amare--they aren't beating anyone in the first round.  
9. New Orleans Hornets:  Now that the Suns have thrown in the towel, this is the only team in the West that could really challenge for a playoff spot, and I think they've dug too deep of a hole to get in.  With the season Anthony Davis is having though, anything is possible, so consider them mentioned.  

A couple of quick thoughts from the crappy East:  

• I really hope Bosh is okay, because while I of course hate Miami, I do have to admit that if their new starting five could ever get on the court together it could be really interesting team in the East.  
• Can you imagine the last 48 hours of Dragic's life?  He went from:  F this team, I'm outta here...I wonder where I'll go...sweet, I went to a playoff team...wait, is it just me, or could this team actually go somewhere in the playoffs...crap, our best player might be out for the rest of the season, I might go back to being the 9th seed again?  Again, all of that was in the space of 48 hours.  Crazy.  
• Finally, on Reggie Jackson:  I think Reggie Jackson is crazy in his belief that "I can be an All Star starting scoring point guard on a playoff team".  He's not that good.  However, he is a good scorer who's delivered in the playoffs, and he will be great on this Detroit team trying to make the playoffs in one of the worst conference's in history.  The question will be long term:  his true role will be scoring guard off the bench on a championship contending team (or exactly what he was the past two years in OKC); will he ever accept that that's who he is, or will he be good stats on a bad team with a bloated contract guy?  It'll be interesting to find out, but he will be good for Detroit this year.  

I've missed you friends.  Thank God for the NBA...it's FAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!  

2012 Western Conference Preview

Western Conference preview. And sadly, I'm not using the first few weeks of the season to help my projections because I've barely had time to watch.  

The Bad 

15. New Orleans Hornets
The classic "bad but up and coming team". Count me among those who think The Unibrow is a future star. I think Austin Rivers will be a good scoring 6th man/borderline All Star someday, and Robin Lopez and Ryan Anderson are solid starters on a playoff team. There are two reasons I don't have this team higher: 1) they're not only young and dumb, but I don't think the Hornets even care about trying to win this year, they just want to see the players grow, so they will lose games they could win just to let the kids play, and 2) at what point do Eric Gordon's injury issues become a long term concern? I think he is a very good shooting guard and can become a couple of time All Star, but only if he's on the court. At some point that is an issue, right? But this season that won't really matter.  

The Ugly  

14. Sacramento Kings
Wow. WOW! This team is so horribly assembled it's actually amusing. This is classic train wreck/NASCAR crash syndrome. I know it's early, but let's pull out the BPL (bullet point list...how did I not go with that acronym years ago???) already:

! This team's guards are literally the pickup hoops guards from Hell. Tyreke Evans. Aaron Brooks. Jimmer Ferdette. Forget point guards; if you made a list of "guards who if they bring the ball up past half court, they are shooting it, no question" those three are the top three on the list! And they're all on the same team! That's your guard rotation! Well, except for Isiah Thomas, which leads me to my next point...
! Even I had two look up two--TWO!--of their starters. Who the f are Isiah Thomas and James Johnson? Seriously? They're starting for you? I've never heard of these guys! My first thought when I heard Isiah Thomas was, "I don't know which would be worse: a 50ish year old real Isiah Thomas coming back to the NBA, or some guy who shares the name with a famous basketball player that is so bad that I've never heard of him." And who knows, maybe he's a shoot first guard too! I have no idea!
! You know, I actually like the train wreck that is DeMarcus Cousins, and here's why: he's kind of the lone throwback to the Post-Jordan era stars that almost ruined the NBA, the Derick Coleman/Shawn Kemp/Allen Iverson/Stephon Marbury/Alonzo Mourning (it always amused me that he played so long in the NBA that everyone eventually forgot what a dick he was in his youth)/Larry Johnson (it pains me to say that) era, where all of the stars got too much money too soon and all acted like assholes. The modern NBA star might make occasional bad PR moves (see "The Decision") or we might be able to tell that he's really a dick and is just putting on a good show (see Dwayne Wade), but you really take for granted how professional and likeable the current young NBA star is (see Durant, Kevin). DeMarcus Cousins is like the reminder of the way things used to be, and helps you to appreciate how not certifiably crazy the NBA is right now.

Enjoy the ride, Kings fans. I can't wait for Tyreke Evans and Aaron Brooks to try to start stealing the ball from each other in the backcourt when they take it up on offense.  

13. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is in the horrible position of having a roster full of players who are just good enough to think they should all be playing, but none of them are actually good enough to play. Here's the list of players who are good enough to get minutes on an NBA team: Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat, Shannon Brown, Wesley Johnson, Markieff Morris, and Channing Frye. Unfortunately, that's 9 players right there, and of that, 4 could only start on bad teams, 1 would be a nice 7th or 8th man on a playoff team, 2 are bench players on a bad team, and 2 only get to play on a bad team because they're young. Throw in Bassy Telfair and Jermaine O'Neal--two players who shouldn't be playing anywhere, but are delusional enough to think that they should--and you have 11 players who want minutes when none are even good enough to start for a playoff team. Uhhhhh...that's not good.  

The Fantasy Teams  

12. Golden State
Golden State is one of the teams--for what seems to be the 30th time in 10 years, which I know is impossible but still feels that way--that is getting, "Hey, these guys might actually be pretty good!" buzz. Let me set the record straight: they are not. Look pundits, I understand where you're coming from. This is a nice little fantasy team; it does look really good on paper, and not just for the talent, but in the, "if you squint hard enough, these guys can actually play together!". But you're reaching and not grabbing here, and I'll tell you why:

* Most of these guys are HORRIBLE defender. Curry and David Lee couldn't stop anyone even if they pretended to try, and Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, and Carl Landry aren't exactly known as defensive stoppers either. "But wait!" they say. "They've got Andrew Bogut now!" Uh huh. First of all, when did Andrew Bogut become the next Bill Russell? Bogut is a nice post defender, but I've never seen nor heard of him being a great help side defender, which is what the Warriors would need to have a chance in Hell of slowing anyone down. While Bogut is an improvement over what they had (which was essentially nothing), improvement in an area does not mean that the problem is solved. Sorry kids. Besides, how many games do we actually think Bogut is going to play this season? Which once again leads me into our next point...
* These guys are ALWAYS injured. How many times has Bogut played over 80 games in a season? Once...his rookie year. He's only played over 70 games twice. Curry? Also once, and he's coming off a 26 game season last year. David Lee has never made it to 75 games as a Warrior. Does anyone think Thompson or Barnes will actually get in 75 games this season? For a team with a very mediocre bench, this does not bode well. However, their biggest problems is that when you look at these names...
* These guys are actually OVERRATED. Look, I know everyone likes Curry because he's a nice guy, and he's got the short-slight-hardworker thing going for him that the average fan loves. But Stephon Curry will never be an All Star in this league as a starter. Everyone agreed that Harrison Barnes was one of the most overrated players in college; how is this going to translate well to the NBA? Andrew Bogut is a top five center in the NBA, it's true...and his career averages are 12.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a game. Please see my earlier comments about how far the center position has fallen. David Lee is a nice offensive player, but is horrible defensively. Consider me very unconvinced that Klay Thompson is a rising star (to say the least). The fact is that every single one of these players has either significant warts in his game or is just flat out overrated. Period.

So again, I can see if you're looking for hope for this team you don't dive into the details and you can fool yourself into thinking, "Hey, this team might be good!" But it's not good, and it's not going to be good. Sorry people.  

11. Portland Trailblazers
So Golden State was the bad fantasy team; Portland is the good fantasy team. The starting five for Portland is actually pretty good. I'm not a Nicolaus Batum fan, and a rookie point guard is a rookie point guard, but Lamarcus Aldridge is a bona fide All Star, and I like Wes Mathews and JJ Hickson more than most people. So you're starting five isn't bad...and then you look at the bench. Good God. Jared Jeffries is your 6th man? Sasha Pavlovic will get good minutes? Ronnie Price? We all know these guy's names, but that doesn't mean that they're good. And when that is the core of your bench, well, then...crap.  

The "Too Bad We're Not In the East" Teams  

10. Utah Jazz
I could see the Jazz as a playoff team, and yes, we have entered into the "these teams would be a LOCK to make the playoffs in the East" territory. I've got them down here because in the end, I think several of their players are overrated. Mo Williams could only be a starting point guard on a playoff team when he was playing with the best player in the game. I'm going to go with Gordon Haywood as the Poor Man's Mike Dunlevey (uh) rather than as Jeff Hornacek 2.0, and for a starter, let's just say that's not good. Marvin Williams is who he is: a dime a dozen SF/SG in the NBA that won't kill you, but won't ever do anything for you. Millsap and Jefferson are both borderline All Stars, but I can't shake the feeling that in the end they really play the same position. The bench is solid but not noteworthy. This is a vintage Jazz team: they're tough, and they're going to compete every night. In the end though, they're better than the bad teams but not better than the good teams, and I think they will be close to the playoffs but not quite make it their in the end. If anyone slips, however, they'll be waiting.  

9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Count me among those who really like the Wolves roster. Obviously Rubio and Love are great; more doesn't need to be said of them. I really like the pickups of Brandon Roy and AK47; while neither of these guys are stars anymore, they are both improvements over what you had last year, and are solid professionals who will help teach the young players on this team how to play. The bench is filled with not only top notch bench players but guys who are fine coming off the bench and will play hard while doing so; Barea, Stiemsma, and Admundson are great bench players who play hard every night and bring great playoff experience to this team; Budinger and Ridnoir do the same just without the playoff experience. On paper, this isn't just a playoff team, this is an up and coming team that is will push a 2 or 3 seed to 6 or 7 games in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the dreaded I word will keep this team from doing that. This team just can't overcome missing at least 20 games each from Rubio and Love in the ultracompetitive West. Throw in the fact that Roy and AK47 will have fantastic seasons if they make it to 70 games and it's just too much for the Wolves to overcome in the end. The good news is I think the Wolves are smart enough to realize that about this season, and will make sure their young players come back healthy rather than rush them back (I know I'm giving KAHHHHHHHHHHHHHNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!! a lot of credit there, but I get that sense from this team), and will enjoy competing for a playoff spot in the last week of the season.  

The Feel Good Story  

8. Houston Rockets
This is probably too high for this Rockets team. Looking at them on paper, it's definitely too high; the overall talent on this team is less than that of Minny and Utah. However, every season there's a team that just has it, and just plays better than they should, and rides that momentum though the season. I get that feeling from the Rockets this year. Do I think Harden and Lin are overrated? Yes, but I think they aren't as overrated as the media gave them credit for being, and both are in major F You mode and want to show the league that they are much better than given credit for being. I think Omer Asik is very underrated, and I think he was a great addition to this team. I think Daequon Cook and Toney Douglas are solid bench players, and I know he does this every time there's an international competition and it rarely amounts to much in the NBA...but man I thought Carlos Delfino looked FANTASTIC in the Olympics. If he carries just a bit of that to the Houston bench, then their guard rotation is in great shape. This team has warts: outside of Asik, their bigs are a joke. There isn't really a backup point guard on the roster; Toney Douglas is really more of a 2 than a point. And as much as they want to prove that they can carry a team every night, there is legitimate reason to question whether Harden and Lin can actually do so. But in the end, I think this team has the right combination of talent, "Nobody believed in us!", and momentum to carry them into the playoffs.  

The Unexpected  

7. Your Dallas Mavericks!
Don't believe what you've heard: the Mavs offseason was bad (don't believe Cuban when he tells you it wasn't), but not a complete disaster (don't believe the media when they tell you it was). Sure, you would be correct in making fun of this team as the 2006 All Stars (seriously, look it up), but the fact is that Marion, Carter, Brand, and Kaman do have something left in the tank. Collison and Mayo are not a great starting backcourt, but they are a solid one, and Roddy, Brandan Wright, and Jae Crowder coming off the bench is a solid bench. There are lots of reasons not to pick the Mavs to not reach the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they are hit by injuries if they slide all the way to 10th. But in the end, Dirk is still a top 10 player in the league. This team is still good enough that if Dirk is his usual healthy self when he comes back from his knee injury, this team will not slide out of the playoffs, which is a lot better than a lot of people thought they would be. In the end, trust in the savvy vets.  

6. LA Clippers
I've got a bad feeling about the Clippers this season. In a way, the Clippers remind me of the Suns, not in their talent but in the sense that way too many people are going to expect playing time on this team. Here's the list of guys who think they should be playing on this team: CP3, Willie Green (how is he still starting in the NBA?), Tough Juice, Blake Griffin (we need a nickname for him, and no, I'm not going with "The Ginger"), DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe, Jamaal Crawford, Grant Hill, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf, Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups...Hell, even Ryan Hollins is thinking that he played playoff minutes for the Celtics last season. Ummmmmm...that's 13 people. The good news is, that yes, there is a lot of talent there. The bad news is, it's almost harder to have too many talented people to play than it is untalented people. To handle a situation like this and keep the team from imploding, you need a really good coach and a really strong organization that can establish a culture that says winning is more important than anything, and the culture needs to be respected and even a little feared by the players themselves. Unfortunately, their head coach is arguably the worst head coach in the NBA, and in spite of their success last season this is still one of the least respected organizations in all of sports, not just the NBA. Throw in the fact that CP3 still hasn't signed an extension--which thusfar people have ignored, and I really don't understand why--and if the going ever gets tough on this team, I think this can get really bad really quickly. I think this team is too talented to fall much past 6th, but I get the complete opposite vibe for the Clips that I get from the Rockets: I feel like Momentum is against them this year. In the end, it's going to be the usual wild ride for the Clips.  

5. Denver Nuggets
I like the idea behind the Nuggets. "Look, with the mountains in a game based on nonstop running, we have potentially the biggest homecourt advantage in sports. So let's just put a bunch of good but not great players out there, and run the shit out of the opposition." It's a sound theory, and thanks to the Nuggets pulling a Ewing Theory (tm Sports Guy) last season, everyone is on board with the nuggets. I have two problems with the Nuggets: 1) the Nuggets have tried the run them out of the mountains" before in the late 80's, and it didn't work then. Like I said, it's not a bad plan, and the players on the roster now are better than it they were back then, but as a long term playoff strategy I'm not a believer. 2) Everything broke right for the Nuggets last season. Everything. You know me if you read this blog, I believe in Yin and Yang, so if everything broke right for the Nuggets last season, some things are going to go wrong this season. And when you don't have an elite player to plug the holes, when things go wrong it can get bad quickly. Don't get me wrong; 5th place in the West is an impressive achievement. But some pundits are seeing the Nuggets as a dark horse title contender, and I think that's a little crazy.  

The Flawed  

4. Memphis Grizzlies
Griz are bringing back essentially the same team (the OJ Mayo loss will hurt some; a healthy ZBo will help some, so it all evens out in the end). I think they're about the same again: a tough second round out, but a second round out. This is a very good team that just doesn't have the backcourt to be a great team.  

3. LA Lakers
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH yes. The Lakers. What an exciting season it's been already. So many things to note here:

1) I had the Lakers in third before the season started. Howard getting back into shape from back injury, mixing in the new players, the age of the team...even if things had gone incredibly smoothly, this team was not going to win the West.
2) The reason I had them in third was I figured Mike Brown would be fired. Especially as the preseason wore on, it became obvious that Mike Brown would not make the season. The Princeton offense for a team of offensive talent was insane. Combine that with the fact that A) Brown has at this point vehemently proven that he's not a good head coach, B) the Lakers were undoubtedly going to struggle since the media had forgotten that Howard was coming back from back surgery, this team was crazy old, Kobe might be the toughest player to adjust to in the league, and the bench still sucks, and C) the panic that was going to immediately ensue since the media can't pick on Lebron now that he has a title and for some reason they are choosing to ignore the fact that CP3 won't sign an extension, and D) Phil Jackson, the greatest front runner in coaching history was going to be waiting in the wings to come "save" them, and any hiccup in Lakerland was going to be met with Brown's dismissal. It was almost comical how predictable it was; the only surprise was the minor blip in going with D'Antoni instead of Jackson. 
3) See point B above; this team isn't nearly as good as they are being made out to be. Steve Nash is 39! Have you watched Kobe play lately? He still thinks he's the best player in the league! When was the last time that "back surgery" and "starting center" went well together? Has nobody seen these guys try to play defense? They're horrible! Do you realize that Jodie Meeks is probably the 6th best player on this team? And for the love of God, after all the changes, do you not realize that FRICKING RON RON IS STILL STARTING FOR THIS TEAM?!?!? And don't talk to me about how good of shape he's in; he looks more like a crack addict than he does a guy who got into really good basketball shape.

Again, obviously, this is all a matter of degrees. I think this team still fairly easily wraps up 3rd in the West, and if everyone is healthy, they have a good chance to make it to the Finals. But all this "hand the Western Conference to the Lakers" talk is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY premature.  

The Western Enigma  

2. OKC Thunder
So the Harden trade. I really don't know how I feel about that. The biggest problem is that I hate Harden probably more than any player in the NBA right now. I don't need to go into why, you've heard me rant about it before. The question is, how good is he? It's undeniable what a valuable X Factor he turned himself into in the last two seasons. He was fantastic off the bench in all of the Thunder's playoff series except one. He'd improved dramatically from his first couple of years in the league, and carved himself out as a valuable member of this team.

That being said, when the Thunder needed him most, he completely disappeared in The Finals against the Heat. His performance there was nothing short of embarrassing. That's okay, you thought. It was his first time there, maybe it was just jitters. But then on the Olympic team--an Olympic team that was missing several other guards that would have been there over him--Harden also looked awful. He was unquestionably the worst player on the team, and the one that made you say the most, "wow, he looks like he really doesn't belong with these guys" (and yes, that includes The Unibrow. Unibrow looked raw at times but played surprisingly well for a college player, and you could easily see the potential there. Harden just looked pathetic out there). So if you're trying to put together a team that can beat the Miami Heat--a team that has three players that truly belonged on that Olympic roster--how can you not watch those two performances and then come away thinking, "We can't pay this guy like he's one of them, because he most certainly is not."

In the end, I think they should have kept Harden, and deal with the fallout next year. This team was a favorite to compete for the title this season, and you don't miss that chance. You never know when a guy can land funny (see Rose, Derrick), and so if you've got the chance you go for it. That being said, the Thunder did a good job of getting something back for Harden. Kevin Martin has played for bad teams so long you forgot that he was recently a borderline All Star. If your young players (Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Reggie Jackson) give you anything, and if Eric Maynor can play well enough to be the 4th quarter point guard of a championship team (moving Westbrook to his real position of shooting guard), then this is still a team that can compete for a championship. I think we're so used to stars--using the term loosely for Harden--traded for little in return that that's what many assumed happened here. But I think OKC got at least $.75 on the dollar for Harden. If anyone else can step up, they can fill that void.

What makes this so fascinating though is that this was truly a What If trade. Time won't tell who was right on this one (unless OKC wins a title); there were no guarantees either way. If KD gets a title in his career, then it was the right move. If not, then we'll always wonder.  

The Old Faithful  

1. San Antonio Spurs
 I don't think I even need to say anything here, do I?

There's your regular season kids. The lesson, as always: the NBA.....it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!

2012 Eastern Conference Preview

It's that time kids.  Let's do this!!! 

My God these teams are awful.  Just awful.

15.  Orlando Magic
I can see half of this team being traded this season.  There isn't a team out there who won't need a pure shooter like Redick?  Think some playoff team needing a big body won't talk themselves into Big Baby?  You know Orlando can't WAIT to get rid of Nelson, Harington, and Hedo.  Not only will this team be tanking, but any veteran who starts playing halfway decent will be shipped out as soon as they can get something for him.  Good luck Orlando fans. 

14.  Washington Wizards
There are teams in the East with less talent than the Wizards, but I just get a bad vibe from this team.  Okafur is the new Pervis Ellision; he always seems to play on crappy teams.  John Wall continues to be a great athlete who seems like he can't figure out how to play basketball.  I'm among those not sold on Bradley Beal, and Trevor Ariza is one of those guys who are good on good teams and bad on bad teams.  This team still just feels like it's going nowhere. 

13.  Charlotte Bobcats
I like the younger players on this team.  Who doesn't like Kidd-Gilchrest?  I think Gerald Henderson is going to be a solid player, and Bismack Biyombo is exciting to watch if nothing else.  It's the vets on this team that are going to hold them back.  Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Brendan Haywood?  Uhhhh.  Seriously, if you were fielding a 12 man roster of overpaid and overhyped players who also have piss poor attitudes, Gordon, Thomas, and Haywood would be on it, right?  And you could make the case for Sessions?  Once again, I say uhhhhh. 

12.  Detroit Pistons
Every single one of these players is overrated.  Every single one!  It's unbelievable!  Look at this roster:  

Rodney Stuckey:  How much longer are we going to wait for this guy to be good?  This is his 6th year in the league! 
Brandon Knight:  Jury is still out here, but I think we can all agree that he is not ready to start this season. 
Tayshaun Prince:  Prince was a great player, but anyone who thinks he's got anything left in the tank is crae. 
Jason Maxiell:  Maxiell is not horrible, but let's stop pretending he's a poor man's Ben Wallace.  He is a homeless man's Ben Wallace. 
Greg Monroe:  It makes me sad that Monroe is a starting center in the NBA now.

And I could go on:  Charlie V!  Corey Maggette!  Some Swedish dude named Jonas Jerebko is getting good minutes!  And I'm sorry, but how did Andre Drummond go from "stereotypical big guy who is going to waste his talent" to "can't miss NBA rookie!" in 8 preseason games?  It's the preseason people.  Calm down. 

This team is getting some, "Hey, the Pistons might be surprisingly good!" buzz.  Don't buy it.  This team sucks.

Really bad, but they do have at least one thing going for them...

11. Cleveland Cavaliers
I hesitate to go this high with the Cavs (and yes it is sad that 11th in the East is considered "this high" for them)--I could see Detroit actually finishing ahead of them--because they are another "they could be suprising!" buzz team, but I buy into it for the Cavs.  I agree that Kyrie Irving could be ready to jump into the Top 30, and even though I think that Dion Waiters was overrated just like all Syracuse players are (this is a post in and of itself), I think he will play well next to Irving.  Varejao is the perfect hardworking veteran compliment to those guys, and Tyler Zeller and Tristan Thompson will play hard and fun enough to make this team entertaining.  Combine that with the fact that Cleveland fans give them a true home court advantage in that they will cheer any improvement since Lebron's departure, and you do sense that this team is on its way up. 

Two things make me nervous:  1) Duke players are cursed in the NBA, and Irving has already had a couple of weird injuries in his very young career.  If he goes down for long periods of time, this time is battling Orlando for the worst record.  2) The "nice young team that is fun to watch" makes lots of mistakes, and with the exception of Varaejao there are no vets that I really trust on this team.  I mean for God's sake, who the Hell is Alonzo Gee? 

But in the end, even though the record won't be great, I think the Cavs are fun and get better as the season goes on.  This is a squad on the way up. 

10.  Milwaukee Bucks 
The fact that I have the Bucks this close to the playoffs is more of an indictment on how bad the East is then it is an endorsement on how good the Bucks are.  This is one of those bad Isiah Thomas-style fantasy league teams where you look at the roster and go, "Wow, there are 10 okay NBA players on this roster...but none of them fit together well."  Fortunately (or unfortunately, since that leaves them on the bottom side of the middle) for the Bucks, they play in the East, so they won't get shellacked like they would in the West.  In the end, I think the Bucks have enough talent to finish above the worst, but not enough to do anything substantial with it. 

9.  Toronto Raptors 
The East should be ashamed of itself that the Raptors are finishing this high.  This is another team that was getting buzz for being better than expected, and my first thought was, "you've got to be kidding me.  This team sucks."  And while I still stand by that, what I underestimated was how bad the rest of the East was.  The East is the classic "someone has to finish in 7th place" (more on that later), so the fact that Toronto is in 9th doesn't mean that Toronto is necessarily moving in the right direction. 

The thing that I do think this team has going for it is it has a halfway decent second unit.  I think Kyle Lawry is overrated as a starter...but he's not awful, and Jose Caldron as a backup gives you a distinct advantage over the other team's backup.  Same thing for DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields at shooting guard.  Ed Davis is a nice backup PF (just like his father was).  That makes this team a tough out, which gets you way too high in the East. 

Things are going to go horribly, horribly wrong for these teams...but you won't really notice, because they'll somehow make the playoffs.

8.  Philadelphia 76ers 
You now, I could talk a lot about the Sixers problems, but in the end the answer is this:  I am not an Andrew Bynum believer.  I'm just not.  I think he's a guy who is almost always going to be hurt, and when he's not happy--which is often--he's going to say he's hurt.  I think he's the kind of guy who whines about being the man because he wants the money and attention, but he really has no interest in putting the time, work, and effort into being the man.  And I think Philly has pretty much hitched their wagon to him being a star and taking them to the next level. 

That being said, there is talent on this team:  Jrue Holiday is a little overrated but he's not bad; I don't think Evan Turner will be a star, but I think he can be a 1-2 time All Star; Thaddeus Young is a good multi-tool player, I think Jason Richardson has some life left in him, and I think Dorell Wright is a very underrated player.  I just think the stink of Bynum is going to end up bringing this team down...but not out of the playoffs down. 

7.  New York Knicks 
Their guards are Fat Raymond Felton, Certifiably Insane JR Smith, and Coming off ACL Surgery Iman Shumpert.  Amare can barely even move anymore but he's still going to start, and Melo is refusing to play the 4 even though the only time he plays well is when he's playing there in the Olympics.  Mike Woodson, enjoy your last season as Knicks head coach. 

The Enigma

6.  Chicago Bulls 
This is one of those "I'm just putting this team here, but it could go one of several different ways and it's anyone's guess which way".  Here are the scenarios for Chicago:

* Rose comes back early--like January--and is his old dominant self.  Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli finally start playing to some of the promise they had as rookies and are affective bench players.  Joakhim Noah isn't a dominant scorer, but has figured out how to average 12-15 points a game and establishes himself as someone who must actually be guarded on offense.  This is the least likely scenario. 
* Rose comes back in February, but isn't the same player yet.  This is a guy who relies on pure athleticism more than anyone in the league right now except for Russell Westbrook, and a crippling knee injury is going to take some time for him to recover from.  He's okay, but not great.  The bench is not nearly as good as it has been: Gipson is still good, but Nate Robinson is just okay whereas CJ Watson was a fantastic backup point, and Marco Belinelli is still just some Italian guy playing basketball.  The East sucks so they finish around 6th, but they are a quick first round out and obviously Rose needs more time and the roster needs to improve. 
* The season is a complete disaster.  The bench is awful compared to last season:  the losses of Asik and Watson--especially Watson with Rose being out--kill the team.  There's no scoring without Rose.  Deng and Boozer have their usual injury stretches, but without Rose to cover for them it kills the team.  Rose is ready to come back in February, but the Bulls see that the season is over and know he isn't 100% ready, so they make him sit the entire season.  The Bulls take a page from the Spurs playbook, pack it in, and gun for a top 3 draft pick to team alongside Rose.

In the end, I think the middle scenario is what happens.  But I think the last scenario is the smart move.  The fact is is that Deng, Boozer, and Noah are all overrated players.  The reason this Bulls team was so good was Rose and a really good bench.  The Bulls now have neither of those. 

Solid squads

5. Brooklyn Nets
I think we all know how much it pains me to write this of this team.  But I have to admit, the Nets has a fantastic offseason, and not just for the reasons you thought they did:

* Is Joe Johnson overrated?  Yes, he is.  But if you don't really care about money--which Prokorov obviously doesn't--then he is still a top 10 shooting guard in the league.  Same for Gerald Wallace, except make that Top 20 small forward instead of Top 10.  These guys aren't great, but they're not bad either. 
* The Nets did the opposite of the Bulls:  they did a fantastic job rounding out their bench.  CJ Watson might be the best backup point guard in the league.  Reggie Evans can't score to save his life, but he is a fantastic rebounder and defender, a great teammate, and a guy who brings solid playoff experience to this team.  And as much as a joke as Andray Blatche might be, he is a good 9/10th man:  he's a big body to toss in there, and if he ever manages to put his talent together, it's great.  If he doesn't, who cares, he's your 10th man.  Add to that moving MarShon Brooks to the bench where he can contribute (a classic bad starter but good bench player kind of talent), and this bench makes up for the slightly overrated Johnson/Wallace/Humphries/Lopez starting 5. 
* I think most people have forgotten how good Deron Williams was before he came to New Jersey.  He was unquestionably a top 5 point guard in the league, and probably top three.  He took it easy the last two years because this was a crap team that was going nowhere.  But watching him play in the Olympics over the summer, where he was essentially the team's 6th man, and seeing how good he is with other good players around him made you remember that this guy is not done.  Now he's got a talented team and an exciting new arena, and one of his biggest competitors both in his conference and at his position is out.  He's going to have a fantastic season.

It's amazing what you can do when money ain't a thing, isn't it? 

4.  Atlanta Hawks 
A classic "addition by subtraction".  I'm fine with losing Johnson, Williams, and Crawford, who were all overrated, if that means more minutes for Teague and Harris.  Add in Lou Williams, who I've always liked in Philly, and Kyle Korver--who will hopefully be doing the three point shooting instead of Josh Smith--and they are perfectly capable replacements for those three.  Add in a healthy Al Horford and Josh Smith in a contract year, and even though on paper they look worse than last season, in the end I think the Hawks are still a solid team in the East. 

3.  Indiana Pacers 
The Pacers should be used to this spot:  a good team that is a step below the great teams above them.  Hell, they even have as their best player a SG/SF who thinks he's on the same level as the game's best player and couldn't be more wrong!  Wow!  Throw in a good but slightly overrated center...my God, I'm getting Deja Vu, I think I need to sit down...

The Elite

2.  Boston Celtics 
I love everything Boston did in the offseason.  As overrated as JET is, he's head and shoulders above Ray Allen's level last season and is a great fit for this team.  I love the addition of Courtney Lee, I like Jeff Green coming back as a solid bench guy, and I like Barbosa and Darko as your 9/10th guys.  I even like Jared Sullinger, I think he's going to end up being a 1-2 time All Star since he gets to study at KG's knee, and I think he brings some needed young legs to the team.  I think the Celtics did everything right, and the team looks great. 

1. Miami Heat 
But in the end, I think the first game of the season spoke for itself, and will really be the entire season in a nutshell.  With all the Celtics changes, and as well as they played, the Heat still won by 13. 

I can talk about Dwayne Wade and Bosh being healthy; that will help, and ignore the "Wade will want to be the man!" naysayers, that won't be a problem--obviously that will be great for the team.  I can talk about adding Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen; while yes, these players are shadows of their former selves, they are still an improvement to this team's bench.  But in the end, all that matters is that the Heat has the best player in the game by a wide margin who has figured out how to use all of his skills to their fullest.  This team is going to be awesome. 

Western Conference coming soon (and no, I wouldn't have had the Lakers in 1st even before all of their struggles). 

2012 NBA Free Agency Thoughts

Thoughts on NBA Free Agency so far, with my obvious bias as a Mavs fan showing:  

• So New Jersey—sorry, Brooklyn—wants DWill, Joe Johnson, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash (Stein is reporting that), and Dwight Howard?  And they are going to trade what for these players since they were about the second worst team in the league?  And they are going to fit this all under the salary cap how?  Maybe it’s the Mavs homer in me, but to me it sounds like a franchise screaming “We are going to act like a player and maybe they’ll think we are a player!” even when there is no way they can ever acquire/afford these players. 
• That being said, if Dwight Howard really did tell Orlando that he will only go to the Nets, there’s no way he’s saying that unless he’s talked to Darren Williams first and made sure he’s resigning there, right?  If he truly did throw that ultimatum for the Nets—and I have a sliver of hope in the fact that it’s being REPORTED that he wants the Nets, and he hasn’t said that it has to be the Nets—there’s no way the Mavs are getting Williams. 
• Why in the world would Steve Nash go to Toronto?  I mean come on.  That team is years away from truly competing, and there are several teams who have enough money who are competitors who Little Stevie Nash I’m sure would be much more interested in.  Why is Toronto wasting their time? 
• How terrified would you be as a Clipper fan that even with Blake Griffin signing an extension, CP3 said, “Nah, I’m going to play this out” and didn’t sign an extension, making him a free agent at the end of the year?  If Howard weren’t once again making such a splash that news would be getting MUCH more pub. 
• That being said, assuming that since he’s back in LA he will return to his Lakers-era form, how much of a steal was getting Lamar Odom for the Clips?  That team just needs to add a Ray Allen-type shooting guard (I can give you 12-15 a game by just knocking down open jumpers) and they are a threat to the Thunder in the West.  And yes, it kills me to write this about that lazy asshole. 
• I love Ray Allen, but did anyone watch him play at the end of the season?  Whoever signs him better hope that his ankles heal and it’s not just father time catching up with him. 
• Finally, as weird as it is to think this so soon…but has anyone ever handled free agency worse than Dwight Howard?  Now I know everyone will say “Yes, Lebron” but Lebron did more damage to his rep than anyone ever has, but other than “The Decision” he didn’t handle it this badly (say what you will, but even the ridiculous party they threw as soon as they signed isn’t so bad now that they’ve won a title in their second season to back it up).  Howard is now in about month 12 of killing his reputation by how he’s handling this.  It’s sadly fascinating to watch.  What an idiot. 

We’ll see how this all plays out.  Once again, we are seeing the NBA…….IT’S FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!

Postgame Spurs-Thunder Game 5

Holy crap man...what a game last night.  Some quick thoughts:

• I was all but dialing the phone to call the biggest Spurs fan I know (male) and say, "Make sure you put a thank you card in the mail to Russell Westbrook for winning you that game" at the two and a half minute mark.  You know it's bad when even the ex-player (especially idiot ones like Reggie Miller) announcers are yelling at a guy to give up the ball.
• Do you know what sealed the game for the Thunder?  It was Kendrick Perkins fouling out.  Scotty Brooks just refuses to acknowledge that his best lineup is to go small and put Ibaka at 5 and Durant at 4 at the end of games.  It drives me crazy.  The irony of the announcers freaking out that Perkins had fouled out cracked me up since that saved the Thunder, not helped them. 
• While I don't have an interest either way, I'm glad the Thunder won this game because they were getting SCREWED by the officials from about 4 minutes on til about 1:30 left in the game.  The Westbrook foul where Parker jumped on top of him...the no call on Perkin's shot (though Perkins would have missed that anyway, which is probably why they didn't call it, but Timmy still slapped the Hell out of him), and then Perkins' 6th foul where he was jumping out of Manu's way and Manu just threw himself into him...those were awful.  Just awful.  Don't get me wrong, the biggest factor was Westbrook trying to prove he's better than Durant, but when the Thunder's lead swelled to 12 at around 4:30 it became 5 on 8 basketball.
• I fricking hate Harden--I think that's been fairly well established here--but surely he's hit enough big shots now to earn some kind of nickname, right?  Chauncey got "Mr. Big Shot" while hitting far less Big Shots in his career.
• On second thought, does the beard trump it, no matter what he does?  Is he just "The Terrorist" and that's it?  .......Too mean?  ;-P 
• You know what I love most about this series?  Even though it's 3-2, and 99% of the time that means the series is over (especially when the home team loses Game 5), but in no way do I feel like the series is done.  The Spurs could absolutely win two straight.  The Thunder could lose at home and win in San Antonio.  The Thunder could close out.  And that's not an insult to either team, it's respect to how good these two teams are (well, it's a little disrespect to the shakiness of Westbrook, but it's no disrespect to anyone else).  Fantastic series. 

2012 NBA Playoffs

I'm really sorry I didn't get a chance to preview the NBA Playoffs this year.  The bottom line:  I'm old.  Time that was there just isn't there like it used to be.  But even if I didn't get a chance to preview, these playoffs are too...interesting?  Compelling?  Fascinating?  Disappointing?  Outstanding?  I think all of those words apply at least a little.  So I have to chime in with my thoughts so far, and what I think is going to happen from here. 

* First, I'd like to address Ron Ron elbowing James Harden in the face.  Look, I think it's been well documented here that I am not a fan of Ron Artest.  I think he's an obvious steroids user that has been suffering from Roid Rage for so long it's literally driven him crazy.  I think he's a horrible basketball player: he's a throwback to the thugs on the Bad Boy Pistons/Pat Riley Knicks brand of basketball--you know, the type that almost killed the NBA in the 2000's.  There's nothing good about Ron Artest; the NBA would have been a much better place if he had never been there. 

That being said...I'm not 100% against both the elbow to Harden and his reaction afterwards. 

Look, the bottom line for basketball is that you want to play hard, play fair, and not get anyone hurt.  Guys like James Harden, and Bruce Bowen, and Anderson Varijeo (whatever on the spelling), and Manu Ginobli don't do that.  The constant flopping not only is annoying, it's not fair (they're intentionally trying to mislead the refs to swing the outcome of the game not on their skill, but on their acting ability) and it's dangerous (there's plenty of times they undercut or cheap shot players that can lead to injuries by sliding in when people aren't looking or are in the air for no good reason other than to flop).  I'm not a dirty player, but if a guy flops against me on the court, I warn him--loudly--that if he tries something again, I'm going to give him something to flop about.  And if he does it again, I make sure I knock the crap out of him next time it looks like I'm going to foul him, and then I tell him that yes, I meant to do that.  This is good basketball:  it's keeps that cheating wus honest, and it keeps him from hurting me with his cowardly play. 

Now, I don't run down the court and elbow the guy in the face so hard he gets a concussion.  BUT...for years, we've watched guys like Harden and Ginobli pull this shit and the NBA has let them get away with it.  I know that I've written here before that I wish someone would throw a (more subtle) elbow and knock the crap out of Ginobli or Varijeo and send them a message.  So while (as usual) Roid Rage Ron Ron took it too far, you did not find me feeling sorry for James Harden.  And Ronnies reaction afterwards--refusing to call Harden or apologizing in any way, and doing everything but say to the media, "Yeah, I meant to do it, and I'd do it again" was great, and was a message that needs to be sent since the NBA refuses to step in.  It's like I tell the refs in my games:  "if you don't stop him from doing that, then I will." 

So fuck you James Harden.  Don't play like a little bitch, and you won't get knocked out. 

* On a similar note, I'm fully expecting the NBA equivalent of this to happen at some point between Harden and Ginobli.  Those two deserve each other. 

* While I do feel sorry for Chicago because of Derrick Rose's injury, and I do give Chicago some credit because Philly is a good (not great, but good) team...doesn't the fact that they fairly handily lost that series, and lost it with Boozer shooting 1-11 in the final game tell them something about their team?  Someone on that team has to score other than by jump shots and Rose driving to the basket.  Until they have someone who can do that, they won't be a true championship contender.  More on this later. 

* I really like this Philly team...as long as you don't expect them to be a championship contender.  Look, with Brand and Iguodola's contracts, this team is what it is:  an atheltic young team who can't go out and improve anymore because of how they spent their money.  That being said, ask Phoenix how that worked for them in the Nash/Amare/Marion glory years.  This isn't a true championship contender, but it is a really good, fun team that can post some good playoff victories for the next coupla years.  I'm sure the reasonable and understanding fans in Philadelphia are smart enough to appreciate that, and enjoy the team as it is. 

* You know what I'm really happy about?  That people are finally starting to criticize Dwyane Wade.  Not that I want to stand up for Lebron James--he's devolved into literally one of the worst clutch players I've ever seen--but Wade has been treated as the Golden Boy for far too long.  First of all, he's one of the dirtiest players in the league, having hurt several players in, "did he mean to do that?  I can't tell...I guess we'll give him the benefit of the doubt since he acts like a nice guy" kind of incidents.  When one or two of those happen, fine.  When five or six of them happen (Simmons had a good list on his NBA playoffs column) it's a pattern.  Second, he's not a nice guy.  He's a smart guy, and has learned to hide the fact that he's a dick by being subtle about it and doing funny commercials over the years.  But he slipped up and proved he's a petty, whining bitch last season when he made fun of Dirk for being sick (and it was HIM making fun of Dirk, not Lebron...watch the video, Lebron just kind of chuckles awkwardly after Wade starts sneezing and saying "I'm sick, write that down" in a "man, I don't want any part of this, but I don't want to throw my friend under the bus either" kind of way), and added to it with his little hissy fit he threw towards Spolestra in Game 3.  Hey Dwyane?  Spoelstra didn't make you shoot 2-15 from the field.  Own it. 

And that brings me to the Wade/Lebron thing.  Everyone has been criticizing Lebron--and not unfailry so--for not being a closer.  But isn't that supposed to be Wade's job anyway?  Didn't Lebron take a backseat when he signed with WADE'S team?  Haven't his struggles in the clutch been well documented, and if Dwyane Wade is truly the great player the media likes to talk about him being, shouldn't he let the greatest all around player in the game right now carry the team through three quarters, and then step in and take over down the stretch?  Isn't that what a great player would do? 

Here's the thing about Wade:  how many championships has he won where the referees didn't call 25 free throws a game for him?  It's easy to knock those shots down when you know the league is doing everything they can to get you to win.  But what has he ever done deep in the playoffs to show us that he is this great player/closer other than that? 

Again, I'm not absolving Lebron here.  Pathetic is the only word that can describe him in the final minutes of close playoff games.  But I'm glad that the media is finally starting to question the supposed greatness of Dwyane Wade.  It's long overdue. 

* Nothing makes me sadder about watching the NBA right now than the fact that Roy Hibbert is a top five center in the league.  What in the Hell happened to this position? 

* I want to like OKC.  I really do.  Obviously I like the good people of Oklahoma.  Thunder fans are good fans, even if wearing blue tshirts when the away team is there wearing blue is the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen.  I like Kevin Durant--how can you not, really?  Westbrook is a facinating player to watch (more on this in a sec), and even though this season it seemed like Ibaka had taken a few to many classes in the James Harden Bitch Brand of Basketball school, he's still an incredibly exciting player to watch. The pluses outweigh the minuses in the "do I like the Thunder" column. 

But do I like them as a title contender?  Not really, no.  Durant has taken his game to yet another level this season, and that is incredibly impressive.  However, I still worry about him in the clutch.  It's a fadeaway jumper and that's it from him.  So far he's made them...but it's really hard to keep making a fadeaway jumper every time you have to through four rounds of playoffs.  There's still no low post threat on this team whatsoever; Ibaka is a better mid range jumpshooter than he is low post player, and that is the last thing this team needs from him offensively. 

And Russell Westbrook.  How do I put this...Rusell Westbrook is the one of the most talented and possibly the dumbest point guard I've ever seen.  As I mentioned earlier, he's facinating to watch: he's UNBELIEVABLY quick.  I wish I'd seen more of him and Derick Rose go head to head before Rose blew out his knee; I honestly think Westbrook might be faster than Rose.  His midrange jumper is good, he's a great leaper and he finishes strong at the hoop.  But the guy is a fricking moron.  He's worse than even Young Kobe was in the "It's my turn to shoot!" department.  It seems like every five minutes in a game Westbrook takes off down the floor having decided that--no matter what--HE is shooting this time, and let me promise you people, smart teams LOVE playing against a player like that.  It's bad enough when that guy is your shooting guard or small forward, but when he's your point guard?  I'm sorry, but you just don't win championships with guys like that. 

Don't get me wrong.  The Durant, Westbrook, and Harden have the ability to get hot enough to win a championship--ala Dirk in the playoffs last year--but in the end, I think this is going to be an Atlanta Braves-like team where you look at the talent and go,"Wow, they only one once in ten years?  I can't believe that!" when all is said and done.  There are just too many smarter, well rounded teams out there, like...

*...the San Antonio Spurs.  I swear on everything that is Holy, I would have picked the Spurs to win it if I had done a preview column.  The Spurs are healthier than they've been in years going into the playoffs.  The team is more well rounded than it's been in forever--they're getting good contributions from Kawahi Leonard, Danny Greene, Gary Neal, Dajuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson, and Boris Diaw.  That's seven fricking guys who are going in and making contributions every single night!  Combine that with the Big Three playing as well as they have in years--seriously, when was the last time that Timmy missed a free throw line jumper?  I feel like it's been two months since I've seen him not nail that--and that's two lineups that can play with anyone on any given night.  Add to that that the Spurs seem to specialize in peaking at the right time during strike-shortened seasons and that alone makes them the favorites.  But there are two more reasons that I think not only will they win the title, but win it in convincing fashion:  The Radar and IQ. 

First, no one was paying attention to the Spurs when the playoffs started.  They were the old team that got swept by an 8 seed last season.  So even though they were playing great, they got to sneak in both A) without any pressure, and B) with the ability to play the "nobody believes in us" card.  The media still isn't talking about this team as much as it should!  It's more fun to talk about the changing of the guard between Kobe and Durant, and the soap opera in Miami, and the Celtics struggles against a less talented Sixers team.  Championship teams always benefit from those two items; the Spurs will use this.  Most importantly, though, is the team IQ.  This team is flat out smarter than any of the teams left--both the team itself and its coach.  OKC has holes, Miami has holes, Boston has holes.  The Spurs have none.  Any style of play they can match up with, and any weakness another team has they are smart enough and egoless enough to go exploit that hole.  As much as it pains me to say it, it really is beautiful to watch.  They never get worked up, they never panic, the never get mad:  they know that they are better and smarter than everybody, both because they have faith in their abilities and because they've been there and done it all before. 

In the end, I'm really hoping for a Spurs-Celtics final, because I'd love to see one last matchup between Durant and Garnet--even though I like Garnet better, but know that Timmy will kick his ass.  It will be facinating to see two of the great power forwards of all time--both of whom are polar opposites, neither of whom like the other--go at it one last time.  It would also mean Miami doesn't even make the Finals, and I think we can all agree that that is something to root for. 

* So in the end, what a strange year.  It really is facinating...and mesmerizing..and sad...and pivotal...and groundbreaking. 

In the end, it is what it always is.  The NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!