2009 NBA Offseason, Part II

VERY exciting offseason! Let's look at a team by team basis rather than a move by move basis.

San Antonio Spurs
Moves: Traded for Richard Jefferson (Bowen; Oberto; Thomas); Signed Antonio McDyess

A fantastic offseason for the Spurs. I don't think McDyess is quite the bench presence he was a few years ago; I think the Spurs need to find one more decent big man to truly be a threat to the Lakers. This team definitely improved dramatically this offseason.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Moves: Traded for Shaq (Ben Wallace & Sasha Pavlovich); Resigned Anderson Verajao; signed Anthony Parker

I'm not a fan of the offseason for the Cavs. The Cavs were beat because they had an old, lumbering center who couldn't defend the pick and roll and couldn't guard the more agile Dwight Howard. Does Shaq help with either of these issues? No. The Verajao contract is ridiculous; $11 mil for a roll player over 4 years as the cap is shrinking? Plus when Lebron leaves next season you'll find that Verajao is close to worthless without him. He is the standard of the energy roll player who must be teamed with a great player to be affective at all. The Cavs didn't get any worse this offseason, but they certainly didn't get any better.

Orlando Magic
Moves: Traded for Vince Carter & Ryan Anderson (Courtney Lee; Rafer Alston; Tony Battie); Lost Hedo Turkoglu (FA) & Marcin Gortat (FA)

The Magic are done being a championship-contending team. Turkoglu was their real MVP; a good clutch scorer, one of their best ballhandlers, and by far their best passer. Lee was an integral part of their lineup as a great glue guy: a tough, energetic rookie who was a great defensive presence and could score. We all know what Vince Carter is: a classic good player on a bad team kind of guy, who's passing skills aren't even close to Turkoglu and will shrink from the moment. Finally, the Magic lost both of their backup big men in Battie and Gortat. There is literally no one to back up Howard or Lewis. This will come back to haunt them. The Magic are still a very good team, but they aren't a true championship contender anymore.

Boston Celtics
Moves: Signed F/C Rasheed Wallace

This was a good signing and improved the Celtics...but I'm not sure this was exactly what they needed. The C's still need someone to fill James Posey's shoes: a tough, speedy SF/SG who defends well and can hit an open 3. They really could have used Trevor Ariza, Dahntay Jones, or Quinton Ross, but got none of them. Getting Rasheed for only two years was a great move though; they didn't have to tie up long term money with him because he just doesn't have that much left.

Sadly, this is also a good move in case KG can't make it all the way back. Obviously the Celtics as championship contenders depends on him coming back at at least 90% of what he was last season. I'm curious to see how they will play Sheed, too, because I can promise you that Kendrick Perkins is not going to take kindly to coming off the bench. Can Sheed swallow his ego and be a 6th man, a roll he would be perfect for as he could sub in for either Perkins or KG depending on team need? We'll see.

LA Clippers
Moves: Drafted Blake Griffin; Traded Zach Randolph to Grizzlies (Quentin Richardson)

Not very often you can say this, but excellent work by the Clips. They found someone stupid enough to take Randolph's awful contract (saving $8 mil and picking up an expiring 2010 contract in Richardson), and opened up playing time for Griffin. The Clips are actually an interesting team now; a good center combo in Camby and Kaman (and they could still move Camby), great young PF, solid improving young SF in Al Thornton, a potentially good SG in Eric Gordon (though I'm still not sold on him), and Baron Davis at the point with lots of cap room in the offseason. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll be entertaining to watch.

Detroit Pistons
Moves: Signed Ben Gordon & Charlie Villanueva to ridiculous contracts; Got some guy to be the head coach

The Detroit Pistons UNQUESTIONABLY just ruined their franchise for the next five years. They're done. Completely. They just locked up almost $100 million over 5 years in two players who will never be All Stars. They also fixed the problem that ruined their season this past season--"Richard Hamilton has to be a starter"--by spending $55 million on a player who plays the exact same position as Hamilton, has almost the exact same game (scoring and nothing else), and has bitched about coming off the bench while with his last team. And don't even get me started on Charlie V, who know that he has his money is going to retire and forget to tell the Pistons. This team is set up like a fantasty league team--and not a good one, either. The Pistons are D-U-N done.

LA Lakers
Moves: Signed Ron Artest, Resigned Lamar Odom (imminent)

LA...welcome to the show! Simply put, this is an awful idea. Rumor has it that Ron Ron wasn't really well behaved last season--the Rockets just managed to keep it quiet. Ron in LA is going to go nuts, and this will drive Kobe up the wall. Also, count me among those who think the logic of "Lamar Odom will keep him in line!" is absolute nonsense, and that the likely scenario will be "Ron Ron convince LO, 'Fuck it, I've got my ring and my new contract, let's party!'" This will not end well.

Let's look at it strictly from a basketball perspective as well. The Lakers essentially traded a young, athletic support player who played well within their offense for an older, stronger, but far less quick player who is awful offensively. Yes, Ron Ron puts up offensive stats, but they have been steadily slipping and his offense has basically devolved into jacking up AWFUL 3's. Does that sound like a guy Kobe is going to enjoy playing with?

This deal made me very happy.

Houston Rockets
Moves: Signed Trevor Ariza, Lost Yao Ming for the season (injury)

The Rockets are pretty much screwed, as I've already addressed. I like Trevor Ariza a lot...but as a supporting player. Unfortunately, on this team he'll be asked to support TMac as he is now God only knows how old and coming off of microfracture surgery. This is not a good thing.

I think the Rockets will still be a good team; they'll play hard every night, and they do have the jack of all trades thing going in that each of their players are good. However, about their best bet is the 7-8-9 seed in the West now.

Toronto Raptors
Moves: Signed Hedo Turkoglu, Resigned Andrea Bargani & Carlos Delfino, Traded for Antoine Wright (Shawn Marion), Lost Anthony Parker (FA)

Nice offseason for the Raptors, but I don't think it's going to accomplish what they want to accomplish. The Raptors will make the playoffs but are not a serious contender in the East. I still think Chris Bosh will leave after next season; he's smart enough to realize that the Raptors at best will now be stuck in mediocreville, and this is his one chance to change teams and still make good money in the process. I don't blame him.

Honorable Mentions
Good job by the Pacers for picking up Dahntay Jones for dirt cheap; the Nuggets will regret losing him. On the flip side, good job by the Nuggets for hanging onto Birdman. Hawks didn't get any worse with resigning Bibby and trading for Jamal Crawford, but they didn't get any better. Darko in New York is interesting in that it might be possible for him to play on every bad team in the league. He's like the modern day Orlando Woolridge. Portland, don't break the bank trying to sign Paul Milsap as it's reported you're doing. He doesn't fill a need and he'll cost you more than he's worth. Actually, wait...since Brandon Bass is your backup plan to that, nevermind, throw the bank at Milsap! How low can you possibly get when you're calling the Grizzlies and begging for a job? That's what AI has been reduced to.

Your Dallas Mavericks!
Moves: Signed Quinton Ross & Marcin Gortat; Resigned Jason Kidd; Traded for Shawn Marion (Stackhouse/Wright/George)

If the Mavs can manage to resign Brandon Bass after all of this, I'll be thrilled. We've now got a starting lineup of Kidd/Howard/Marion/Dirk/Gortat, with a bench of Barea/Terry/Ross/Bass/Dampier. If we can't resign Bass, then I can live with Ryan Hollins as our 9th man. Oddly enough, my favorite move was the Ross signing. Ross is Bruce Bowen in his younger days but a better free throw shooter: a lock down defender who can hit a wide open three. Great player to have coming off the bench, and hopefully his energy will inspire the lackluster Howard. As soon as Sessions was off the table, the Mavs had little choice but to resign Kidd, and a three year contract I can live with.

Marion I'm back and forth with. I think teaming Marion with Kidd is great; the reason Marion was so effective in Phoenix and so ineffective in Miami and Toronto is he needs a great PG to create for him, since he can't create his own shot. Kidd might not be able to stop anyone in the league defensively, but he can still create for the players around him. Marion won't put up the stats he did in Phoenix, but he'll be a force and will play well with Kidd. The problem I have with Marion is his contract; I would have much rather seen a three year deal for him than a five. However, signing him for that wasn't too realistic, and Mavs fans are going to have to live with the fact that in three years this team is probably going to have to bottom out. In the end, picking up Marion was a good deal for the Mavs.

I'm also back and forth on the Gortat signing. Gortat SCREAMS of the overrated big man who turned a coupla good performances into a contract. However...I like both what I saw in Gortat, and what I've read about him. Gortat played with fire and passion, and did a great job of consistantely taking the ball hard to the rim. He also talked shit against his coach about not being tough enough and displayed a similar sort of strength in the media.

Gortat could turn out to be another stiff, and again I would like this deal if it was for three years instead of five. That being said, I don't think this is Jerome James here; I think this is a fiery guy who will go out and play hard and pretty well every night. His talent might not be quite as good as his contract dictates, but I think the passion he'll bring will be just as important to the Mavs as his play. On top of that, the Mavs aren't asking him to do much; get a coupla dunks a game, have one or two good posts moves that you can use a coupla times a game, and rebound and guard the rim. That's about all the Mavs need him to do. After watching Dampier's uninspired and insipid play the last few years, I think Gortat will be a breath of fresh air and could become a fan favorite.

The one thing the Mavs are still lacking is the true perimeter swingman; the small forward who slashes to the basket and makes teams respect him taking it to the rim. That being said, the Mavs have improved immensenly this offseason. Their depth is greatly increased, and their overall talent has been greatly increased. On top of all that, I like the way the pieces fit. Throw in the fact that this is a contract year for Howard, and this could be a great season for the Mavs. I don't think they're quite on the Lakers or Spurs level, but they are much better than the Rockets or Jazz, and I do think that they are now better than the Nuggets and Blazers.

The Mavs have definitely gone all in, but I think that this was a smart way to go all in. It's going to be a very interesting season for them. Go Mavs!!!

Several more pieces need to play out: will Grant Hill go to the Celtics? Where will AI end up? Will the Blazers get Millsap? Will Amare or TMac get dealt? More to come, but we're starting to get a pretty good idea of how teams will look next season.

Remember kids...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!!

2009 NBA Offseason

Lots of happening in the NBA the last coupla days, with a lot more to come. Thoughts on the major items:

Shaq to the Cavs for Ben Wallace & Sasha Pavlovich

Not a big fan of this trade for Cleveland.

Look, I know that Shaq averaged 18 and 9 last season. I know that that it's a one year rental and you didn't give up much for him. I know that Shaq is going to be motivated because he wants to stay ahead of Kobe on the title hunt.

I still think it's a bad trade. I can easily see Lebron and Shaq's personalities clashing. Shaq is second to no one; make no mistake about that. Even when Dwyane Wade was the star in Miami, Shaq made sure to point this fact out ridiculously often in order to make sure everyone remembered that he, Shaq, was there, and it was only by his graciousness that this worked, thus meaning he was still the star. Expect to see something similar in Cleveland…except don’t expect Lebron to be so gracious about it. Throw in the basketball facts: Lebron is best when he has an open lane and can slash to the basket and needs the ball in his hands; Shaq is a back to the basket, ball must go through me pivot man who needs the ball in his hands to stay both effective and motivated. Lebron needs a somewhat agile big man who can shoot a midrange jumper; Shaq is no longer agile at all and could never shoot to save his life. The Cavs need a big quick and agile enough to keep up with Dwight Howard; Shaq is not any quicker than Big Z.

I just don’t see this working.

Vince Carter to the Magic for Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston

Poor Magic fans. They had their one shining moment again…and once again, they pissed it away by losing their best player.

Look, Dwight Howard is really impressive. And I think he is actually slightly underrated: the media likes to point out the flaws in his game so often that they miss the good that he does (yes, he needs a more polished offensive game, but you can’t argue with 20 points a game on 50% shooting). So he’s a great player, and is by far the most talented player on his team.

But Hedo Turkoglu is by far their best player. He was their most clutch player—yes, I know he missed valuable free throws against the Lakers once the series was basically over, but he hit multiple game winners against both the Celtics and the Cavs, and has been doing so for years. He’s their most efficient scorer, and by FAR their best passer. Make no mistake: it was him, not Jameer Nelson or Rafer Alston, who ran that team. He is a fantastic point forward.

The Magic are still going to be good—Hell, the Magic will still be very good—but they’re not going to be great. They are now a team of talented scorers, all of whom want the ball, and none of whom are particularly good passers, or have shown any penchant for running a team game. They are now unmistakably stuck with this team for the next three years, as the massive contracts Lewis, Carter, Howard, and Nelson are signed to mean that they have no wiggle room.

Good luck. You just lost your jack of all trades glue guy and your defensive and quickly improving young shooting guard for a past his prime vet who is really only good at shooting contested jumpers and pretending to get injured when the going gets tough.

The Draft

* I’m so mad at the Thunder. They could have potentially had the most exciting team to hit the NBA since at least D’Antoni’s original Suns, and perhaps even the Showtime Lakers. Instead of drafting Ricky Rubio to make this happen, they go the safe route and pick the highly overrated James Harden. Let’s see: the track record of slightly heavy shooting guards who aren’t very athletic and put up big numbers from smaller schools where they are the focal point of the offense, but manage to get shut down in the tournament when they face stiff competition that has effectively scouted and planned for them is FANTASTIC. Really, there’s no limit to the success stories of these guys!

The one thing Harden at least has going for him, though, is that he isn’t going to be asked to do much. He’s playing with a future league MVP (Durant). He’s playing with an efficient, affective small forward who does all things well, takes nothing off the table, and will probably be a 1-3 time All Star (Green). He’s playing with a good young point guard who with this bunch has the potential to be very good and make an All Star team or two (Westbrook). So as long as Harden is just a solid two guard who defends decently well and hits open shots, then the Thunder will still be a very good, maybe even great team.

They could have been a LEGENDARY team though. It’s too bad.

* The Timberwolves proved that just because you don’t have Kevin McHale as GM anymore doesn’t mean you have to stop making bad decisions. The Wolves have the steal of the draft fall into their laps at #5…and then immediately piss him off by drafting someone to play the exact same position with their next pick.

I don’t understand the questions about Rubio. Did no one see him play in the Olympics? Did they miss the gold medal game, where he led his team against one of the best teams in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD at 17 years old and held his own? Even if the TWolves aren’t sure they can get him to come play, he’s worth the risk. You draft him, and then you do everything you can to convince him to stay.

I’m sure the Wolves will end up dealing him, and will probably get some good talent back for him. But this was a franchise once again shooting themselves in the foot, even when fate offers them a way out.

* Has anyone pointed out to the Wizards yet that they traded Ricky Rubio for Randy Foye? You're right, probably best if we hope they don't notice.

* You almost have to feel sorry for the Knicks. Rubio slides…Curry slides…until right before them. And I couldn’t be less impressed with Jordan Hill, who was unfortunately the best available there.

* Denver did an excellent job picking up Ty Lawson for a future first round pick that is worth little to them.

* I cannot believe the Mavs wasted their pick on some foreign French guy who isn’t going to play for years. This team is trying to win NOW. I’ve got news for Donnie Nelson: the cupboard is going to be bare when Dirk leaves. There’s nothing we can do about that at this point of wasting the last three years worth of draft picks. Let’s roll the dice on someone who might be able to help us win NOW.

* The Spurs having Dajuan Blair fall into their laps in the second round almost just isn’t fair. Oh well. At least there’s a good chance Kobe won’t repeat now.

Free Agent Rumblings

* I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again: Hedo on the Blazers really intrigues me. Brandon Roy has done a good job playing pseudo point guard, and Steve Blake is a good backup. With this lineup, though, you start Roy at PG, Rudy Fernandez at SG, Turk at SF, Aldrich at PF, and Oden or Pryzbilla at C (depending on who’s healthy). This way teams never really know who’s running the team: is Roy the initiator or the scorer this trip? Which roll is Hedo playing? These are two guys who can play both rolls and are smart enough to mix it up EACH TRIP DOWN THE COURT. Steve Blake is finally coming off the bench—he’s not a good starter, but he’s an excellent bench player—along with good subs in Outlaw, Rodriguez, Frye, Batum, and whichever dude isn’t starting at Center. Fantastic deal for the Blazers if it goes through as expected.

* If the Spurs do land Rasheed Wallace, it’s all over. Carly and Ben can start dancing in the streets right now.

* Kudos to the Bucks (and I can’t believe I’m writing this even as I’m writing it) for being smart, even if it means fucking over my perfect plan for the Mavs. The right thing to do was to let Charlie V—a classic Tim Thomas “I just put up average stats to get a good contract, and as soon as I get that contract I’m done playing hard until the year before it is up” guy—not waste your time and money and let him walk, while signing the steal you found at PG. It makes so much sense I can’t believe the Bucks actually didn’t. It doesn’t matter if they don’t have a good option to replace him; you’re never going to win with a guy like Charlie V, so you might as well cut your losses and roll the dice with whomever.

* I would feel sorry for Utah about Carlos Boozer—after showing his true, money grubbing, don’t give a shit about anyone colors in December and callously pointing out that “he was going to opt out” and he “was going to get a raise”—exercising his PO and staying for one more year at $13 mil. Now they have to continue to overpay the oft-injured Boozer, while crippling their chances of resigning Paul Millsap, who they really wanted to keep at PF. But then I remembered that it was Utah that helped Carlos Boozer stab a blind guy in the back, and I don’t feel so bad for them. Enjoy Karma, Jazz!

* Don’t let the latest rumors fool you—Amare Stoudamire will be dealt. I laughed out loud when I heard that the Suns “were even talking contract extensions with Amare”. Make no mistake: Robert Sarver is broke and WILL NOT pay him. That talk is just to try and fool the Warriors into thinking that the Suns aren’t desperate to move him and that they will have to part with Stephon Curry to get him.

* Lamar Odom will resign with the Lakers. But I give 60/40 that Trevor Ariza will not. I don’t have anything to back this up, just a gut feeling…

* Yao Ming. Again, I called bullshit when Yao broke the same foot he’d previously broken and the Rockets said everything would be all right. Ask Bill Walton how well foot injuries recover in basketball players. Ask Andrew Tooney.

The sad truth is that when a basketball player’s feet start to go—ESPECIALLY a big man’s feet—there is no coming back. The stress placed on it is just too much. The only hope Yao has is taking a year off from EVERYTHING—the NBA, China, everything—and hoping that that much needed rest will heal him up. Even then, I think the dream of Yao playing a full season + playoffs is idiotic. Any team with Yao on it needs to give him at least 20 games off, if not the entire first half of the season. That’s it. That’s what it’s going to take to win in the playoffs with Yao. History is on my side.

Good luck Yao. You’re going to need it.

* Finally, I’m interested in a sign and trade with Jason Kidd. I’ll take Wilson Chandler, Chris Duhon, and Chris Wilcox from the Knicks. I’ll take Delonte West, Anderson Varajeo (also a sign and trade), and J.J. Hickson from the Cavs. Otherwise, I’m not interested. Otherwise, I’ll take Kidd back. Enjoy guys, and I’m not interested in anything other than that.

Time to sit back and see what happens in an exciting free agency period. Remember kids…the NBA…it’s FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!