2009 NBA Offseason
Lots of happening in the NBA the last coupla days, with a lot more to come. Thoughts on the major items:
Shaq to the Cavs for Ben Wallace & Sasha Pavlovich
Not a big fan of this trade for Cleveland.
Look, I know that Shaq averaged 18 and 9 last season. I know that that it's a one year rental and you didn't give up much for him. I know that Shaq is going to be motivated because he wants to stay ahead of Kobe on the title hunt.
I still think it's a bad trade. I can easily see Lebron and Shaq's personalities clashing. Shaq is second to no one; make no mistake about that. Even when Dwyane Wade was the star in Miami, Shaq made sure to point this fact out ridiculously often in order to make sure everyone remembered that he, Shaq, was there, and it was only by his graciousness that this worked, thus meaning he was still the star. Expect to see something similar in Cleveland…except don’t expect Lebron to be so gracious about it. Throw in the basketball facts: Lebron is best when he has an open lane and can slash to the basket and needs the ball in his hands; Shaq is a back to the basket, ball must go through me pivot man who needs the ball in his hands to stay both effective and motivated. Lebron needs a somewhat agile big man who can shoot a midrange jumper; Shaq is no longer agile at all and could never shoot to save his life. The Cavs need a big quick and agile enough to keep up with Dwight Howard; Shaq is not any quicker than Big Z.
I just don’t see this working.
Vince Carter to the Magic for Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston
Poor Magic fans. They had their one shining moment again…and once again, they pissed it away by losing their best player.
Look, Dwight Howard is really impressive. And I think he is actually slightly underrated: the media likes to point out the flaws in his game so often that they miss the good that he does (yes, he needs a more polished offensive game, but you can’t argue with 20 points a game on 50% shooting). So he’s a great player, and is by far the most talented player on his team.
But Hedo Turkoglu is by far their best player. He was their most clutch player—yes, I know he missed valuable free throws against the Lakers once the series was basically over, but he hit multiple game winners against both the Celtics and the Cavs, and has been doing so for years. He’s their most efficient scorer, and by FAR their best passer. Make no mistake: it was him, not Jameer Nelson or Rafer Alston, who ran that team. He is a fantastic point forward.
The Magic are still going to be good—Hell, the Magic will still be very good—but they’re not going to be great. They are now a team of talented scorers, all of whom want the ball, and none of whom are particularly good passers, or have shown any penchant for running a team game. They are now unmistakably stuck with this team for the next three years, as the massive contracts Lewis, Carter, Howard, and Nelson are signed to mean that they have no wiggle room.
Good luck. You just lost your jack of all trades glue guy and your defensive and quickly improving young shooting guard for a past his prime vet who is really only good at shooting contested jumpers and pretending to get injured when the going gets tough.
The Draft
* I’m so mad at the Thunder. They could have potentially had the most exciting team to hit the NBA since at least D’Antoni’s original Suns, and perhaps even the Showtime Lakers. Instead of drafting Ricky Rubio to make this happen, they go the safe route and pick the highly overrated James Harden. Let’s see: the track record of slightly heavy shooting guards who aren’t very athletic and put up big numbers from smaller schools where they are the focal point of the offense, but manage to get shut down in the tournament when they face stiff competition that has effectively scouted and planned for them is FANTASTIC. Really, there’s no limit to the success stories of these guys!
The one thing Harden at least has going for him, though, is that he isn’t going to be asked to do much. He’s playing with a future league MVP (Durant). He’s playing with an efficient, affective small forward who does all things well, takes nothing off the table, and will probably be a 1-3 time All Star (Green). He’s playing with a good young point guard who with this bunch has the potential to be very good and make an All Star team or two (Westbrook). So as long as Harden is just a solid two guard who defends decently well and hits open shots, then the Thunder will still be a very good, maybe even great team.
They could have been a LEGENDARY team though. It’s too bad.
* The Timberwolves proved that just because you don’t have Kevin McHale as GM anymore doesn’t mean you have to stop making bad decisions. The Wolves have the steal of the draft fall into their laps at #5…and then immediately piss him off by drafting someone to play the exact same position with their next pick.
I don’t understand the questions about Rubio. Did no one see him play in the Olympics? Did they miss the gold medal game, where he led his team against one of the best teams in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD at 17 years old and held his own? Even if the TWolves aren’t sure they can get him to come play, he’s worth the risk. You draft him, and then you do everything you can to convince him to stay.
I’m sure the Wolves will end up dealing him, and will probably get some good talent back for him. But this was a franchise once again shooting themselves in the foot, even when fate offers them a way out.
* Has anyone pointed out to the Wizards yet that they traded Ricky Rubio for Randy Foye? You're right, probably best if we hope they don't notice.
* You almost have to feel sorry for the Knicks. Rubio slides…Curry slides…until right before them. And I couldn’t be less impressed with Jordan Hill, who was unfortunately the best available there.
* Denver did an excellent job picking up Ty Lawson for a future first round pick that is worth little to them.
* I cannot believe the Mavs wasted their pick on some foreign French guy who isn’t going to play for years. This team is trying to win NOW. I’ve got news for Donnie Nelson: the cupboard is going to be bare when Dirk leaves. There’s nothing we can do about that at this point of wasting the last three years worth of draft picks. Let’s roll the dice on someone who might be able to help us win NOW.
* The Spurs having Dajuan Blair fall into their laps in the second round almost just isn’t fair. Oh well. At least there’s a good chance Kobe won’t repeat now.
Free Agent Rumblings
* I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again: Hedo on the Blazers really intrigues me. Brandon Roy has done a good job playing pseudo point guard, and Steve Blake is a good backup. With this lineup, though, you start Roy at PG, Rudy Fernandez at SG, Turk at SF, Aldrich at PF, and Oden or Pryzbilla at C (depending on who’s healthy). This way teams never really know who’s running the team: is Roy the initiator or the scorer this trip? Which roll is Hedo playing? These are two guys who can play both rolls and are smart enough to mix it up EACH TRIP DOWN THE COURT. Steve Blake is finally coming off the bench—he’s not a good starter, but he’s an excellent bench player—along with good subs in Outlaw, Rodriguez, Frye, Batum, and whichever dude isn’t starting at Center. Fantastic deal for the Blazers if it goes through as expected.
* If the Spurs do land Rasheed Wallace, it’s all over. Carly and Ben can start dancing in the streets right now.
* Kudos to the Bucks (and I can’t believe I’m writing this even as I’m writing it) for being smart, even if it means fucking over my perfect plan for the Mavs. The right thing to do was to let Charlie V—a classic Tim Thomas “I just put up average stats to get a good contract, and as soon as I get that contract I’m done playing hard until the year before it is up” guy—not waste your time and money and let him walk, while signing the steal you found at PG. It makes so much sense I can’t believe the Bucks actually didn’t. It doesn’t matter if they don’t have a good option to replace him; you’re never going to win with a guy like Charlie V, so you might as well cut your losses and roll the dice with whomever.
* I would feel sorry for Utah about Carlos Boozer—after showing his true, money grubbing, don’t give a shit about anyone colors in December and callously pointing out that “he was going to opt out” and he “was going to get a raise”—exercising his PO and staying for one more year at $13 mil. Now they have to continue to overpay the oft-injured Boozer, while crippling their chances of resigning Paul Millsap, who they really wanted to keep at PF. But then I remembered that it was Utah that helped Carlos Boozer stab a blind guy in the back, and I don’t feel so bad for them. Enjoy Karma, Jazz!
* Don’t let the latest rumors fool you—Amare Stoudamire will be dealt. I laughed out loud when I heard that the Suns “were even talking contract extensions with Amare”. Make no mistake: Robert Sarver is broke and WILL NOT pay him. That talk is just to try and fool the Warriors into thinking that the Suns aren’t desperate to move him and that they will have to part with Stephon Curry to get him.
* Lamar Odom will resign with the Lakers. But I give 60/40 that Trevor Ariza will not. I don’t have anything to back this up, just a gut feeling…
* Yao Ming. Again, I called bullshit when Yao broke the same foot he’d previously broken and the Rockets said everything would be all right. Ask Bill Walton how well foot injuries recover in basketball players. Ask Andrew Tooney.
The sad truth is that when a basketball player’s feet start to go—ESPECIALLY a big man’s feet—there is no coming back. The stress placed on it is just too much. The only hope Yao has is taking a year off from EVERYTHING—the NBA, China, everything—and hoping that that much needed rest will heal him up. Even then, I think the dream of Yao playing a full season + playoffs is idiotic. Any team with Yao on it needs to give him at least 20 games off, if not the entire first half of the season. That’s it. That’s what it’s going to take to win in the playoffs with Yao. History is on my side.
Good luck Yao. You’re going to need it.
* Finally, I’m interested in a sign and trade with Jason Kidd. I’ll take Wilson Chandler, Chris Duhon, and Chris Wilcox from the Knicks. I’ll take Delonte West, Anderson Varajeo (also a sign and trade), and J.J. Hickson from the Cavs. Otherwise, I’m not interested. Otherwise, I’ll take Kidd back. Enjoy guys, and I’m not interested in anything other than that.
Time to sit back and see what happens in an exciting free agency period. Remember kids…the NBA…it’s FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!
Shaq to the Cavs for Ben Wallace & Sasha Pavlovich
Not a big fan of this trade for Cleveland.
Look, I know that Shaq averaged 18 and 9 last season. I know that that it's a one year rental and you didn't give up much for him. I know that Shaq is going to be motivated because he wants to stay ahead of Kobe on the title hunt.
I still think it's a bad trade. I can easily see Lebron and Shaq's personalities clashing. Shaq is second to no one; make no mistake about that. Even when Dwyane Wade was the star in Miami, Shaq made sure to point this fact out ridiculously often in order to make sure everyone remembered that he, Shaq, was there, and it was only by his graciousness that this worked, thus meaning he was still the star. Expect to see something similar in Cleveland…except don’t expect Lebron to be so gracious about it. Throw in the basketball facts: Lebron is best when he has an open lane and can slash to the basket and needs the ball in his hands; Shaq is a back to the basket, ball must go through me pivot man who needs the ball in his hands to stay both effective and motivated. Lebron needs a somewhat agile big man who can shoot a midrange jumper; Shaq is no longer agile at all and could never shoot to save his life. The Cavs need a big quick and agile enough to keep up with Dwight Howard; Shaq is not any quicker than Big Z.
I just don’t see this working.
Vince Carter to the Magic for Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston
Poor Magic fans. They had their one shining moment again…and once again, they pissed it away by losing their best player.
Look, Dwight Howard is really impressive. And I think he is actually slightly underrated: the media likes to point out the flaws in his game so often that they miss the good that he does (yes, he needs a more polished offensive game, but you can’t argue with 20 points a game on 50% shooting). So he’s a great player, and is by far the most talented player on his team.
But Hedo Turkoglu is by far their best player. He was their most clutch player—yes, I know he missed valuable free throws against the Lakers once the series was basically over, but he hit multiple game winners against both the Celtics and the Cavs, and has been doing so for years. He’s their most efficient scorer, and by FAR their best passer. Make no mistake: it was him, not Jameer Nelson or Rafer Alston, who ran that team. He is a fantastic point forward.
The Magic are still going to be good—Hell, the Magic will still be very good—but they’re not going to be great. They are now a team of talented scorers, all of whom want the ball, and none of whom are particularly good passers, or have shown any penchant for running a team game. They are now unmistakably stuck with this team for the next three years, as the massive contracts Lewis, Carter, Howard, and Nelson are signed to mean that they have no wiggle room.
Good luck. You just lost your jack of all trades glue guy and your defensive and quickly improving young shooting guard for a past his prime vet who is really only good at shooting contested jumpers and pretending to get injured when the going gets tough.
The Draft
* I’m so mad at the Thunder. They could have potentially had the most exciting team to hit the NBA since at least D’Antoni’s original Suns, and perhaps even the Showtime Lakers. Instead of drafting Ricky Rubio to make this happen, they go the safe route and pick the highly overrated James Harden. Let’s see: the track record of slightly heavy shooting guards who aren’t very athletic and put up big numbers from smaller schools where they are the focal point of the offense, but manage to get shut down in the tournament when they face stiff competition that has effectively scouted and planned for them is FANTASTIC. Really, there’s no limit to the success stories of these guys!
The one thing Harden at least has going for him, though, is that he isn’t going to be asked to do much. He’s playing with a future league MVP (Durant). He’s playing with an efficient, affective small forward who does all things well, takes nothing off the table, and will probably be a 1-3 time All Star (Green). He’s playing with a good young point guard who with this bunch has the potential to be very good and make an All Star team or two (Westbrook). So as long as Harden is just a solid two guard who defends decently well and hits open shots, then the Thunder will still be a very good, maybe even great team.
They could have been a LEGENDARY team though. It’s too bad.
* The Timberwolves proved that just because you don’t have Kevin McHale as GM anymore doesn’t mean you have to stop making bad decisions. The Wolves have the steal of the draft fall into their laps at #5…and then immediately piss him off by drafting someone to play the exact same position with their next pick.
I don’t understand the questions about Rubio. Did no one see him play in the Olympics? Did they miss the gold medal game, where he led his team against one of the best teams in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD at 17 years old and held his own? Even if the TWolves aren’t sure they can get him to come play, he’s worth the risk. You draft him, and then you do everything you can to convince him to stay.
I’m sure the Wolves will end up dealing him, and will probably get some good talent back for him. But this was a franchise once again shooting themselves in the foot, even when fate offers them a way out.
* Has anyone pointed out to the Wizards yet that they traded Ricky Rubio for Randy Foye? You're right, probably best if we hope they don't notice.
* You almost have to feel sorry for the Knicks. Rubio slides…Curry slides…until right before them. And I couldn’t be less impressed with Jordan Hill, who was unfortunately the best available there.
* Denver did an excellent job picking up Ty Lawson for a future first round pick that is worth little to them.
* I cannot believe the Mavs wasted their pick on some foreign French guy who isn’t going to play for years. This team is trying to win NOW. I’ve got news for Donnie Nelson: the cupboard is going to be bare when Dirk leaves. There’s nothing we can do about that at this point of wasting the last three years worth of draft picks. Let’s roll the dice on someone who might be able to help us win NOW.
* The Spurs having Dajuan Blair fall into their laps in the second round almost just isn’t fair. Oh well. At least there’s a good chance Kobe won’t repeat now.
Free Agent Rumblings
* I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again: Hedo on the Blazers really intrigues me. Brandon Roy has done a good job playing pseudo point guard, and Steve Blake is a good backup. With this lineup, though, you start Roy at PG, Rudy Fernandez at SG, Turk at SF, Aldrich at PF, and Oden or Pryzbilla at C (depending on who’s healthy). This way teams never really know who’s running the team: is Roy the initiator or the scorer this trip? Which roll is Hedo playing? These are two guys who can play both rolls and are smart enough to mix it up EACH TRIP DOWN THE COURT. Steve Blake is finally coming off the bench—he’s not a good starter, but he’s an excellent bench player—along with good subs in Outlaw, Rodriguez, Frye, Batum, and whichever dude isn’t starting at Center. Fantastic deal for the Blazers if it goes through as expected.
* If the Spurs do land Rasheed Wallace, it’s all over. Carly and Ben can start dancing in the streets right now.
* Kudos to the Bucks (and I can’t believe I’m writing this even as I’m writing it) for being smart, even if it means fucking over my perfect plan for the Mavs. The right thing to do was to let Charlie V—a classic Tim Thomas “I just put up average stats to get a good contract, and as soon as I get that contract I’m done playing hard until the year before it is up” guy—not waste your time and money and let him walk, while signing the steal you found at PG. It makes so much sense I can’t believe the Bucks actually didn’t. It doesn’t matter if they don’t have a good option to replace him; you’re never going to win with a guy like Charlie V, so you might as well cut your losses and roll the dice with whomever.
* I would feel sorry for Utah about Carlos Boozer—after showing his true, money grubbing, don’t give a shit about anyone colors in December and callously pointing out that “he was going to opt out” and he “was going to get a raise”—exercising his PO and staying for one more year at $13 mil. Now they have to continue to overpay the oft-injured Boozer, while crippling their chances of resigning Paul Millsap, who they really wanted to keep at PF. But then I remembered that it was Utah that helped Carlos Boozer stab a blind guy in the back, and I don’t feel so bad for them. Enjoy Karma, Jazz!
* Don’t let the latest rumors fool you—Amare Stoudamire will be dealt. I laughed out loud when I heard that the Suns “were even talking contract extensions with Amare”. Make no mistake: Robert Sarver is broke and WILL NOT pay him. That talk is just to try and fool the Warriors into thinking that the Suns aren’t desperate to move him and that they will have to part with Stephon Curry to get him.
* Lamar Odom will resign with the Lakers. But I give 60/40 that Trevor Ariza will not. I don’t have anything to back this up, just a gut feeling…
* Yao Ming. Again, I called bullshit when Yao broke the same foot he’d previously broken and the Rockets said everything would be all right. Ask Bill Walton how well foot injuries recover in basketball players. Ask Andrew Tooney.
The sad truth is that when a basketball player’s feet start to go—ESPECIALLY a big man’s feet—there is no coming back. The stress placed on it is just too much. The only hope Yao has is taking a year off from EVERYTHING—the NBA, China, everything—and hoping that that much needed rest will heal him up. Even then, I think the dream of Yao playing a full season + playoffs is idiotic. Any team with Yao on it needs to give him at least 20 games off, if not the entire first half of the season. That’s it. That’s what it’s going to take to win in the playoffs with Yao. History is on my side.
Good luck Yao. You’re going to need it.
* Finally, I’m interested in a sign and trade with Jason Kidd. I’ll take Wilson Chandler, Chris Duhon, and Chris Wilcox from the Knicks. I’ll take Delonte West, Anderson Varajeo (also a sign and trade), and J.J. Hickson from the Cavs. Otherwise, I’m not interested. Otherwise, I’ll take Kidd back. Enjoy guys, and I’m not interested in anything other than that.
Time to sit back and see what happens in an exciting free agency period. Remember kids…the NBA…it’s FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 1:04 AM
2 Comments:
First, Portland won't have Rodriguez and Frye. Not a big deal, but I thought I would point it out.
I like Harden over Rubio. The Rubio pick is sexy right now, but how much substance to his game is there really. So he had a decent, not even good game against the US in the Olympics. That PG from Puerto Rico (Carlos something?) or somewhere had a great game vs the US a few years ago. He's since rode the pine in Utah. Is he even in the league now? And now, with all the buyout issues on Rubio's Spanish contract...man, that's a lot of risk for the 3rd pick of the draft. And, we haven't even begun to talk about what a defensive liability he would be.
Should Presti have offered Rubio and next year's #1 and maybe something more for Griffin? Skilled and atheletic post players don't come around everyday. Next year's #1's won't get to start playing (ie gaining experience)with Durant, Green, and Westbrook for another year. Therefore, they have less time to make an impact before Durant gets his next contract. Just a thought; I don't even know what I think about it.
Finally, it's kinda sad to follow the Mavs right now. It seems like just yesterday when they were one of the best if not the best team in the league. Now they are mediocre. They aren't getting worse or better. Sadly, I think it may be time to blow it up. Howard is the only young player who has all-star talent. The rest are journeyman. Dirk and the Jet are still good...
I think I'll go have a drink.
Is Gortat the next Jerome James (stiff center who played well in a few playoff games, gets a huge contract, and then is never heard of again)?
A lot of guys rave about him on some of the Thunder sites I frequent. Even going so far as to say he is much better than Millsap. I don't buy it. Taller, yes, better, I don't think so.
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