Offseason NBA Thoughts...Mostly About My Beloved Mavs - Adendum Added!

ADDENDUM!!!
* Of course, an hour after I write this, the Spurs make a huge trade, sending Francisco Obierto, Kurt Thomas, and Bruce Bowen to the Bucks for Richard Jefferson.

Sigh...this is a fantastic deal for the Spurs. The Spurs get everything they need: younger, more athletic, and add another good scorer. They lose almost nothing: Obierto spent most of last season in Pop's doghouse (even though I think he's still a good backup center), Kurt Thomas is past the point that he should have started slipping dramatically due to his age, and to say that Bruce Bowen is a shadow of his former self is the understatement of the year. He is all but completely done.

Of course, this was a cash deal. This takes the Spurs out of the 2010 Free Agent sweepstakes, but since Jefferson is better than anyone they could probably get anyway this was an excellent use of that money. The Bucks get the cap space they will need to resign Charlie V and Ramon Sessions (totally fucking up my "Sessions to the Mavs" plan below. Damnit.) after failing to win with Jefferson.

Not only does this give the Spurs their best SF since Sean Elliot, but the Spurs now finally have some insurance for the inevitable Manu Ginobli injury. The only downside is this leaves the Spurs a bit thin at PF/C. Don't worry; I'm sure they'll pick up whichever one of the backup PF/C I listed below that the Mavs had a chance of getting. God I hate the Spurs and their excellent efficiency.

So anyway, Spurs fans should be thrilled right now. Bucks fans, you'll continue to suck. Enjoy.

* First of all, it's being fairly widely reported that the Celitcs offered Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen to the Pistons for Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rodney Stuckey. Furthermore, it's supposedly the Pistons that turned this down.

This is one of the stupidest trades I've ever heard of in my entire life.

Let's look at the Celtics first: you're offering Rajon Rondo--without question a top ten point guard in the league, and arguably a top five--and Ray Allen, the greatest pure shooter who was your MVP last season while still being dynamite in the playoffs. Now granted, you may only have Ray Allen for one more season. Supposedly, there are some attitude problems with Rondo--even though everything I've ever heard is how Ray Allen took him in and taught him to be a terrific teammate, and I've never seen anything on the court that makes me think he has attitude problems--but nothing major for sure. Still, though, these two make up one of the best backcourts in the leauge, unquestionably.

The Pistons, in return, are offering Richard Hamilton--slightly younger than Ray Allen, but also an inferior player--Tayshaun Prince, a good--not great--small forward who still has some good years left in him but whose best years are certainly behind him, and Rodney Stuckey, your young guard who showed a glimmer of promise playing as the 9th man his rookie year, but has done little since then, including crapping the bed pretty much completely when given the reins to run the team after the Chauncey Billups trade. On top of that, this is a group of players who played with the same group of guys for years, and once that group was broken up have been nothing but shadows of their former selves since.

In conclusion, this is so ridiculous I don't even think it's true. This is a classic early 90's Peter Vescey, "Let me put on my smoking jacket, light up my pipe, sit down at the computer and just MAKE SHIT UP for my next column" trade. If it were true, Danny Ainge would deserve to be immediately fired for proposing such a ludicrious trade, and Joe Dumars would deserve to be fired for turning such a steal down. And it's not about contracts people: Hamilton has an AWFUL contract, and Stuckey is up to get a new deal about the same time Rondo is.

This is just awful.

* Some quick hits on the draft since I don't know who half of these players are: Is it just me, or is Haseem Thabeet just a slightly taller Stromile Swift? Good luck with that one Grizzlies...I do think Ricky Rubio is going to be an All Star, though I think he'll be like Steve Nash in that he's great on offense and AWFUL on defense his whole career...If Blake Griffin can't turn around the Clips, no one can...here's my list of mid to late first round picks who I think will be good--but not great--pros: Gerald Henderson (I hate to bet on a Dukie, but I think he's a poor man's Grant Hill, and he plays good D), Dejuan Blair (he's in the Big Baby Davis mode, though, of he needs a team with strong leadership because he could eat his way out of the league; if he stays in good shape, though, he'll be a great bruiser/Rodney Rodgers type of player), Ty Lawson (I think he is much better than advertised, and am praying that teams are dumb and he slips to the Mavs), Darren Collison (again, love it if he slips to 22), and, shockingly, Tyler Hansbrough (look, he's not going to be great. But he can be Nick Collison: a good backup PF on a good team, or a decent starting PF on a bad team).

* Make no mistake, Orlando Magic: if you don't resign Hedo Turkoglu, you are fucked. Well and truly fucked. He's your best passer, your best ballhandler, and by far your most clutch player. You must keep him. It's as simple as that.

And yes, I'm very intrigued as to what the Blazers would look like with him on it...

* Finally, and most importantly, what do the Mavs need to do this summer?

Lots...but not as much as you think.

As we discussed, the Mavs played surprisingly well last season, especially considering all the questions/issues they were facing going into the season. Here's the cleanup from last years Mavericks that needs to happen:

* Let Jason Kidd go. Don't even waste time trying to sign him. He's going to go to a contender to try to win a title. He's going to make too much money, and there are already too many holes in his game that are only going to get bigger. Thank him for his service, wish him luck, and good luck to the Cavs or Lakers wasting $6mil a year on him (however, with all their cap space, I think he would be a good investment for the Blazers...). Unless you have a good sign & trade on the table for him, don't waste your time.
* Resign Brandon Bass...but not for too much. Brandon Bass is one of the toughest Mavs, and one of the few guys who want to get down and take the ball to the hole. He didn't play as well as I though he was going to this season, but he came on strong at the end of the year when it counted. I'd sign him for 3-5 years anywhere from 5-7 per. NO MORE THAN THAT, THOUGH. There isn't a huge market for him, so don't waste a ton of money on him. Get him for a fair price, because he's a great sixth or seventh man but he'll never be a starter.
* Try to trade Josh Howard...but do it quietly. If you can move Josh Howard--even for $.75 on the dollar--do it. But do it for the right kind of player: a hard worker who plays good D and takes it to the hole. That's what you want in return for him. He doesn't have to be as talented, but if you can do that and get a first round pick next year, do it. Don't be fooled by him playing well at the end of the season: Howard is still an overrated moron.

The biggest asset the Mavs have is money: Cuban has it, and is willing to spend it. Since we're approaching an offseason where A) the owners are scared to death about losing money in this economy, and B) everyone is saving up for the summer of 2010, the Mavs might be the most attractive free agent stop in the league. Does this mean they need to go get a big hitter? Not at all. But there are several players who are available that the Mavs should take a good look at.

* Matt Barnes, SG/SF. I've been begging the Mavs to pick up Barnes since he helped beat them in the Golden State series in 07. Barnes is a terrific player who is both a good shooter and a good penetrator. He's also got a mean streak that the Mavs desperately need. Even better, since he's kind of weird looking (he's pretty tatted up) and fairly outspoken, he doesn't command a huge salary around the league. He should be Priority #1 for the Mavs because he fills a good need, he's cheap, and he's very gettable.
* Chris Anderson, PF/C. Every Mavs fan knows who Birdman is after the playoffs. Birdman is another player who fits exactly what the Mavs are looking for: an athletic big who plays good D and goes to the rack. Anderson would be a great compliment to Dirk, as Dirk handles the scoring and helps rebounding, and Anderson does the dirty work. I still think he will be fairly cheap as his past drug use will scare some teams away. His biggest drawback is that I think Denver really likes him and is willing to pay up for him; his gettability is fairly low. Still, I'd definitely bring him to town and wine him and dine him.
* Ramon Session, PG. Obviously by losing Kidd, the Mavs MUST acquire a point guard this offseason. Sessions had a great season for a disappointing Bucks team and would be a good fit here. His getability is good because for some reason Scott Skiles likes Luke Ridnoir as much as Sessions even though Sessions is twice the player. However, his cost might be high--there is a market for him. If the Mavs don't get a good PG in the draft, and they probably won't, then Sessions should be a big priority for them.
* Trevor Ariza, SG/SF. I called Ariza as the key to the Lakers last season; he did a great job of proving me right this season when he finally got healthy. I'd love to see Ariza here, but I doubt he will be leaving LA. If LA is dumb, though, and focuses on signing Lamar Odom, the Mavs should pounce.
* Jamario Moon, SF. An excellent defensive and rebounding small forward who is great taking the ball to the rack and has no jumper whatsoever. That's okay though, as the Mavs have too many people who like to shoot jumpers. Moon is a restricted FA with the Heat who have already made a qualifying offer to him, essentially letting teams know, "Yeah, unless it's insane, we're going to match it." Still, if the Mavs could make something work (sign and trade with Kidd, maybe?) he is a player definitely worth it as long as you don't break the bank.
* Grant Hill, SG/SF. Hill would be a nice consolation prize if you can't get any of the players above. I wouldn't do any more than a three year deal, and I definitely wouldn't pay the full midlevel for him. Try to sell him on a "coming home to retire" deal if you can.
* Raymond Felton, PG. Point guards who can't shoot a lick aren't high on my list. However, as I mentioned, the Mavs are desperate for a point if they let Kidd go. I do think Felton is good at running a team, I don't think his price will be too extravagant, and I think he is done in Charlotte. He's a decent option if your other plans at PG fail.
* Allen Iverson, SG. There aren't many teams left that I think Iverson would be a decent fit for...but I think the Mavs could potentially be one of them. First, the Mavs need another scorer to take pressure off of Dirk, and need a guy willing to take it to the hole. That's Iverson to a T. They also need someone who can guard smaller, quicker guards. While Iverson has never been a great defender, that is the one player he is decent against. Ironically, this would work best with Kidd on the team: Kidd plays point on offense with Iverson at the 2. On D, though, Kidd guards the slower, bigger and stronger two guards or small forwards, Howard guards the quicker of the SG/SF, and Iverson guards the PG.
This scenario has almost 0% chance of happening, since Kidd and Iverson would both want too much money that they're not worth anyway. It is an interesting scenario to consider though...
* Francisco Elson/Channing Frye/Joe Smith, PF/C. Look, I like Ryan Hollins. Seems like a nice guy. Obviously very excited to be here. Works his ass off whenever he's in the game. But if Ryan Hollins is your backup PF/C...you've got problems. Picking up one of these guys on the cheap would be a great move for the Mavs.

In my perfect world, Howard gets traded. I really don't think that's going to happen though. So in my semi-realistic perfect world, the Mavs resign Bass, and sign Barnes, Session, and Elson. If they were somehow able to get Anderson instead of Elson, I would be dancing through the streets naked in joy. That gives the Mavs a starting lineup of Sessions, Barnes, Howard, Nowitzki, and Dampier. Terry is the first guard off the bench, and Antoine Wright is in his good role as a backup SG/SF. Bass is the backup PF that allows the Mavs to go small with Dirk at Center when need be. Elson is the backup C that allows the Mavs to stay big when they need be.

Can that team beat the Lakers? No. But they've got a damn good chance against anyone else. And if Kobe gets hurt or the Lakers fall apart because they don't like each other, then it's anyone's game.

Good luck to the Mavs on Thursday. And remember kids...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!

NBA Offseason Movements: Western Conference, 2008

Better late than never:

Golden State Warriors
Changes: Lost Baron Davis (Clippers), Matt Barnes (Suns), and Mickael Pietrus (Magic) to free agency; signed Corey Maggette; drafted Anthony Randolph
I love it, as I've gotten to the point where I hate the Warriors. Golden State lost the heart and soul of their team because of squabling between that player and Don Nelson (sound familiar?), and lost two important subs, as well. They committed too much money to a player--while talented in his own right--is a copy of several other key players on the team. Basically, Nelson has a team full of SG/SFs. Which is really the way he wants it, but we've seen how much you can win with that.

LA Clippers
Changes: Signed Baron Davis, Ricky Davis, and White Chocolate; lost Elton Brand (Sixers) and Correy Maggette (Warriors); traded for Marcus Camby; drafted Eric Gordon
Poor Clippers. They're finally doing the right thing...and David Falk (Brand's agent) decides to screw them over for a slight from over five years ago and screws them. It's pretty ridiculous. They did a good job by getting Marcus Camby for nothing, and they weren't a true Western Conference superpower even with Brand and Davis, but now they're just battling for the 8th seed.

Phoenix Suns
Changes: Signed Matt Barnes; drafted Robin Lopez
I think people are going to be surprised at how bad the Suns are this season. They're my preseason pick to be the surprise drop like a stone team in the West.

Sacramento Kings
Changes: Traded Ron Artest to the Rockets for Donte Greene & Bobby Jackson; drafted Jason Thompson
Seriously...does anyone outside of Sacramento give a shit about this team?

Your Dallas Mavericks!
Changes: Didn't do Jack Shit
Can you tell that I'm down on the Mavs? Look, I loved Desagiana Diop...at $1 mil per year, not at the ENTIRE FUCKING MIDLEVEL EXCPETION! That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Not only did the Mavs not trade Josh Howard, I didn't even hear them seriously shopping him.

Sadly, the Mavs have reached the point where their window has shut, and their only way to go from here is down. The only question that really remains is will Dirk be here in two to three years or not. We're going to have to rebuild and start over, and it saddens me to think of Dirk playing elsewhere.

The Mavs have only one hope: The Mavs flounder around the 7th or 8th seed til the trading deadline, and they are able to fleece someone by trading Jason Kidd (either fooling them with his potential like the Nets did to us, or using his expiring contract). Having Howard keep his nose clean and continue to put up his deceptive stats so the Mavs can do the same thing with him will also work. The Mavs then take the rest of the season to get to know one another, and head into next year with true chamionship asperations.

The odds of that happening are practically nil, especially with the ridiculous ineptitude that has been shown by the front office the last two years.

Houston Rockets
Changes: Traded Donte Green and Bobby Jackson for Ron Ron; signed Brent Barry
Sigh. We all know what I think of Ron Ron. However, I'll say this for the Rockets: they were never, ever going to get out of the first round of the West with only TMac and Yao. With Ron, at least it won't be the same old song for the Rockets. Now, of course, they can only hope he doesn't go nuts and cause them to miss the playoffs entirely instead of losing in the first round, of which he has a 50/50 shot to do.

Memphis Grizzlies
Changes: Swapped the following players and picks with Minnesota: Kevin Love & Mike Miller to the Wolves, added OJ Mayo; Drafted Darrell Arthur
The Grizz are the latest "intersting young team who will get KILLED this season, but have enough talent to give fans hope." BTW, Marc Gasol does not make the Pau trade fair. Let's stop that talk right now.

New Orleans Hornets
Changes: Signed James Posey from Celtics; lost Jannero Pargo (Europe)
Finally, a Western conference team who had a good offseason! Posey is the PERFECT addition to this team: a veteran player who still has plenty of gas in the tank who can put a very successful young team over the top. Did they slightly overpay Posey, as Hollinger from espn.com keeps lamenting? Yes, they did. But just slightly, and when you are this close to a championship, it's well worth it.

All was not perfect, however. The Hornets will miss Jannero Pargo. Still, they are probably my favorite in the West.

Denver Nuggets
Changes: Traded Marcus Camby to the Clippers for nothing; traded for Renaldo Balkman
I don't know what the Nuggets are doing. Obviously they are planning on blowing things up and starting over (the Camby trade shows that)...but then why resign JR Smith to a ridiculous contract? Another team that is going to get worse before it gets any better.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Changes: Traded OJ Mayo for Kevin Love and Mike Miller; traded for Rodney Carney from the Sixers
I like the Mayo for Love/Miller trade for the Wolves, though they absorbed too many contracts in the deal. They won't make the playoffs this year, but they will make more noise than they have since the KG glory days.

Oklahoma City Whatevers
Changes: Drafted Russell Westbrook and DJ White; traded Luke Ridnoir for Desmond Mason and Joe Smith
Good offseason for OKC. I'm not crazy on drafting Westbrook as some, but I don't think it was a bad pick. I like the Ridnoir trade: OKC had a glut of point guards, and picked up a fan fave who can contribute in Mason, and a veteran PF who can teach and still play in Smith. They'll get hammered again, but are moving in the right direction.

Portland Trailblazers
Changes: Drafted Greg Oden & Rudy Fernandez; Traded Jarrett Jack for Jerryd Bayless & Ike Diogu
The Blazers will make the playoffs this year. Period. Also...how ironic will it be if Rudy Frenandez ends up being the best rookie on the Blazers? We all know my disdain for Euro players, but Fernandez looked good in the Olympics, and especially so against the Redeem Team.

NBA Offseason Movements: Eastern Conference, 2008

WHEW. It's been a busy and surprising offseason, considering both what has happened and what hasn't happened. Let's jump in and take a look team by team (teams that stayed relatively pat I'll just skip. Teams that lost a significant player to free agency--like Boston losing James Posey--will be covered in the team they joined):

New Jersey Nets
Changes: Traded Richard Jefferson to the Bucks for Yi Jianlian & Bobby Simmons; signed Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes, & Eduardo Najera; drafted Brooks Lopez; lost Nenad Kristic & Bostjon Nachbar to Europe.
The Nets had a great offseason. Why, you ask? Because every player they acquired comes off the books in 2010. Jay-Z is going to be able to offer Lebron a boatload of money, along with a good nucleus of Devin Harris, Sean Williams, and whoever he can get for trading Vince Carter in a contract year. If Yi or Brooks Lopez develop into anything, that's just an added bonus. The Nets will be mediocre the next two years while they wait for the King to come.

Philadelphia 76ers
Changes: Signed Elton Brand; resigned Lou Williams and Andre Iguodala.
Great offseason for the Sixers. Do I think this makes them a championship team? Not necessarily. They're paying Sam Dalembert wayyyyyy too much money, it remains to be seen if/how they're going to pay Andre Miller, who's a huge part of what makes this team click, and AI2 now has to become a clutch star to justify his contract. However, with these moves, they are unquestionably a top 4 team in the East, with the chance to be even better for years down the road. Great offseason.

Toronto Raptors
Changes: Traded TJ Ford to the Pacers for Jermaine O'Neal; re-signed Jose Calderon.
For once, the pundits were right: the Ford/O'Neal trade was a great trade for both teams. Count me among those who think O'Neal needed a change of scenery and will have a good season for the Raptors. He and Chris Bosh--who's gaining an incredible amount of confidence/respect/experience by his great play in Beijing--will team together to form perhaps the best PF/C tandem in the NBA, while getting rid of any potential distractions over the Ford/Calderon embrolio. The East is no longer The Least.

Chicago Bulls
Changes: Drafted Derrick Rose; resigned Luol Deng; did not resign Ben Gordon to a long term deal.
My favorite move the Bulls made? Refusing to resign the reigning most overrated player in the league, Ben Gordon. I can't stand that guy. However, they wayyyyy overpaid Luol Deng, who I also think is overrated (though not nearly as much as Gordon). This is still just an above-average team that isn't a deep playoff threat, though this team is one of the few that still has moves to make (what to do with Gordon/Hinrich/Hughes).

Cleveland Cavaliers
Changes: Acquired Mo Williams from the Bucks while losing Damon Jones and Joe Smith.
Mo Williams was an excellent addition for the Cavs. While normally shoot first PGs like Williams are terrible for a team, he is a great compliment to Lebron: the Cavs can run the offense through Mo half the time and Lebron the other half, with the two feeding off each other well. Losing Joe Smith hurts--especially if Big Ben is as done as we all think he is--but this was still a solid deal.

Indiana Pacers
Changes: Traded Jermaine O'Neal for TJ Ford; drafted Roy Hibbert; traded 1st round pick Jarrod Bayless for Jarrett Jack & Brandon Rush; will lose Jamaal Tinsley somehow.
In the second part of the O'Neal/Ford trade, the Pacers also win in that they get to move an unhappy player and acquire a player at a position they need to also unload another unhappy player (Tinsley). I also liked the Bayless trade; I don't think Bayless is going to amount to much in the league (successful shoot first PGs like Gilbert are a rarity), and Jack adds insurance for the inevitable Ford injury, while Rush is an outstanding rookie who will help the Pacers now and down the road. For the first time since the Artest Melee, this franchise is moving in the right direciton.

Milwaukee Bucks
Changes: Drafted Joe Alexander; traded Yi Jianlian & Bobby Simmons for Richard Jefferson; traded Mo Williams & Desmond Mason for Luke Ridnoir; signed Francisco Elson
The Bucks went from having an amazing offseason--stealing Richard Jefferson from the Nets for two disappointments--to a good one, by trading Mo Williams & Desmond Mason for Luke Ridnoir.
I don't think Ridnoir is as bad as it seems most people do; I think he's a decent PG. And God knows this team has enough shoot first players that they could afford to lose Williams. But to get so little in return--and to lose a valuable bench player in Mason on top of that--is really puzzling. I do, however, like the Elson signing: I think he's a good backup Center/PF. This team definitely got better this offseason, it just ends up feeling like they could have gotten even better than they did.

Atlanta Hawks
Changes: Lost Josh Cildress to Europe; singed Maurice Evans; resigned Josh Smith
Ah, the Hawks. After an impressive playoff run, the Hawks are back to what they do best: screwing things up. First, they let one of the more underrated players and their glue guy, Josh Childress, leave for Europe for an easily matchable contract. Next, they lost the, "Who will be dumb enough to pay Josh Smith lots of money?" contest by being dumb enough to pay Josh Smith lots of money. Let's just say I'm predicting a down year for Smith this year.
While I do like the Mo Evans signing, this team still definitely took a step back this offseason.

Charlotte Bobcats
Changes: Added Larry Brown as head coach; drafted D.J. Augustin; resigned Emeka Okafur.
Another meh offseason for the Bobcats. They signed Emeka Okafur, which is good. The signed him for way too much money when they could have got him for less, which is bad. D.J. Augustin slid to them in the draft, which is good. I think he won't be a good NBA player, which is bad. The added Larry Brown, which is good. They added Larry Brown after he's completely screwed the pooch on the last two teams he's been on (04 Olympics and Knicks), which is bad.
In the end, I think adding Brown will be make them a better team. But not enough better to where it will matter all that much.

Miami Heat
Changes: Added Dwyane Wade from injury; drafted Michael Beasley; added Shawn Marion from tanking last season; signed James Jones.
Count me among those who think the Heat will be vastly improved this season. It makes sense; the Heat tanked last season to get the top pick in the draft, and then have a (hopefully) motivated Michael Beasley fall to them at the second spot. Shawn Marion never really played for the Heat after coming over from the Suns last year, and DWade has obviously proven he is back to from in the Olympics.
This team still has enough holes--specifically PG and C--to make it an elite team, but they will be one of those "can beat any team on any given night" teams that scare the Hell out of the 1 or 2 seed they end up playing in the first round of the playoffs.

Orlando Magic
Changes: Lost Kenyon Dooling; signed Mickael Pietrus; lost Mo Evans; drafted Courtney Lee.
I think the league isn't making nearly a big enough deal about the coup the Magic pulled off by signing Mickael Pietrus. He's just a 6'6" athletic SG/SF--their biggest hole--who can shoot the 3 and is an outstanding defender. Great pickup for the Magic. If Courtney Lee can step up and give them some minutes off the bench, then they have a great rotation in place. They still have a hole at PG (you could argue whether the hole is starting or backup), but this team has improved from an excellent season last season.

Washington Wizards
Changes: Resigned Gilbert Arenas and Antoine Jamison; lost Jarvis Hayes; Added Etan Thomas (out all last season with an irregular heartbeat)
I think that the loss to the Cavs in the playoffs marked the beginning of the end of the Wizards. Jamison isn't getting any younger or better; and I don't think we're ever going to see the same Gilbert Arenas after his knee injury. Do I still think he'll be an All Star? Yes, barely. But the old days of top 10-15 player in the league dominance are over with for him. This is a team that with these contracts have committed itself to a slow death in the future.

Western Conference moves tomorrow. Enjoy!