2010 NBA Playoffs Preview
I'm going to change the format a bit and do it by rounds, rather than conference. That being said, let's just get right into it:
Round 1
Lakers (1) over Thunder (8) in 6
Don't get me wrong: I love the Thunder and KD more than anyone this side of Bill Simmons. But time and time again, the NBA has proved that no matter how good the young team going into the playoffs for the first time is, they do not win. There is a learning curve. Throw in the fact that while the Lakers do have their warts, they are still the top seed and returning champions in the more competitive conference for a reason. The Thunder will definitely steal a game, and probably two, but that's about it.
I'm reminded of Gene Hackman and Leonardo DiCaprio's conversation to each other in The Quick And The Dead right before they dueled. Leo was the young prettyboy who was exceptionally talented. Gene Hackman was the older villain who had mowed down all before him. Leo has the favor of the people, and is talking shit to Hackman, when Hackman spins around, grabs Leo (who is his son), and whispers to him, "I'm not sick or old, and you're not half the man I am.", and then goes out and promptly kills him in the duel. We all love the Thunder; they're the young favorites, and they're going to be great, and the Lakers are the old tyrants so we want them to lose. But they're not sick or old yet. It's not going to happen.
Cavs (1) over Bulls (8) in 4
And the Bulls reward for making the playoffs is...2 home games of revenue, I guess?
Mavs (2) over Spurs (7) in 6
Am I still scared of the Spurs? Of course. However, I feel the same way this year as I did last year: above any other "elite" team in the West, the Mavs are designed to beat the Spurs, and with the lack of success from the RJ trade it's arguable that the Spurs are still an elite team. Should be a tightly contested but never in doubt five to six game win for the Mavs.
Magic (2) over Bobcats (7) in 5
I'm sure a combination of the Bobcats playing well at home and the Magic getting lackadaisical will mean one win in Charlotte. That's about it.
Suns (3) over Blazers (6) in 7
This is the one game I watched that totally changed my opinion on the series; on Friday I would have said Suns in 5. The Suns looked fantastic to end the season; not only were they playing great, but Amare was playing like a man possessed. This was the player the NBA though was going to be it's next star three years ago. The matchup with the Blazers, though--even without Roy--is awful for the Suns. The Suns are not tall and are not long. The Blazers are. Amare had a hard time getting points against Aldridge and Camby last night, and I don't see that changing as the series goes on. The Suns didn't shoot particularly well from the three point line last night, and I don't see that lasting, which is why I still pick them out to come out on top. But given Portland's home crowd, their length, and the toughness with which that team plays, I think this is going to be a lot harder for the Suns than expected--especially if Amare gets frustrated, starts pouting, and starts playing/acting like the guy who almost got traded the last two years. This will be an interesting series.
Hawks (3) over Bucks (6) in 5
Even with Bogut, I think this is a five or six game series. Without Bogut, the Bucks are the overacheiving team that really doesn't have a prayer.
Jazz (5) over Nuggets (4) in 7
The most competitive series in the first round. It's basically going to boil down to this: which loss hurt the other team more, AK47 on the Jazz, or George Karl on the Nuggets? There's just been something off with the Nuggets all year, and they're talented enough to put together a good season in spite of it. My gut feeling is that in the end, that holds true and the Jazz are able to pull it out, but this series is basically a coin flip.
Heat (5) over Celtics (4) in 7
I totally agree with Bill Simmons in that this is a Celtics team that looks like it's ready to call it a day. KG can barely move and has looked this way all season; Wallace has been in CTC mode all year; Pierce, Allen, and Rondo always look like their team has pissed them off about something; Doc Rivers openly bailed a month ago when he started talking about retiring to watch his kids play next year. This is an old team in disarray who's ready to lick their wounds. A healthy DWade (for once) should be enough to put them over the top, and this will be some ugly basketball to watch.
Round 2
Lakers (1) over Jazz (5) in 6
This is the perfect example of why this is a somewhat frustrating season: I'd love to pick a team to beat the Lakers, who is one of the weakest number 1 seeds in recent memory...and yet I just don't see the Jazz doing it. The Jazz just never seem to play well against the Lakers, especially in Utah. It's almost a Jordan/Cleveland thing, where the Jazz home court edge goes away against the Lakers because the Utah faithful are used to seeing their teams lose. In the end, the Jazz/Lakers series are never as competitive as I feel they should be, with the Lakers always coming out on top.
Cavs (1) over Heat (5) in 5
Oh, the NBA will probably give DWade enough calls to push this to 6 games. But the Cavs will kick the shit out of the Heat or the Celtics, whoever makes it this far.
Mavs (2) over Suns (3) in 6
The Suns are a matchup problem for the Mavs, no doubt. But in the end, I don't believe that Phoenix is really playing that much better defense than they used to, and I don't think the Mavs will have that much of a problem outscoring them. Throw in the fact that the Suns will be physically and mentally drained from a tougher than expected series with Portland, and I think this will be another "close but never really in doubt" series.
Hawks (3) over Magic (2) in 7
That's right. I'm going with the Hawks over the Magic. Why? For the same reasons I mentioned in the preseason: Vince Carter for Turkoglu. The Magic are now getting to the point in the playoffs where you need a crunch time guy. Last year, it was unquestionably and solely Turkoglu. This year...who is it? Who takes the last shot for them? Honestly, if I was running the team, I would have the most faith in Matt Barnes. I like Matt Barnes, but that's not a good answer. The Hawks, on the other hand, not only know who their go to guy is, but have a good list of backups to fill in the clutch (in order, Crawford, Smith, and Horford) if Johnson can't create a shot. So the Hawks arguably have 4, whereas the Magic have none. Not good. Throw in the fact that I like the Smith/Horford/Pachulia combo against Howard--they can't beat Howard physically, but they can play away from the bucket well enough that it will pull him away some--and I think a tough-minded Hawks team can take a mentally suspect Magic team.
Conference Finals
Mavs (2) over Lakers (1) in 7
This will be a great series, and yes I'm being a little bit of a homer here. The Mavs have the bigs (Damp/Haywood/Dirk) to match the Lakers bigs (Bynum/Odom/Gasol). A better defensive lockdown small forward than the Lakers (Marion and Artest). A two guard who can compete with Kobe and make him work defensively (Butler). The Lakers don't have an answer for one of the Mavs' biggest weaknesses: a quick point guard who can get to the hole and score (Fisher and Kidd). And as for the bench...please. The Mavs bench is a HUGE upgrade over the Lakers.
The only thing that makes me nervous is that historically, the Mavs have always crumpled when playing the Lakers. However, this season, I didn't get that feel. This is a much tougher Mavs team that did not look intimidated by the Lakers, and Butler's addition (an ex-Kobe era Laker) will only help that. It'll be close...but in the end, I think it will be the Mavs.
Cavs (1) over Hawks (3) in 6
Add this to the "close games but series never really in doubt" list. The Hawks are a good team, and they'll push the Cavs, but I think the Cavs go small in this series and just outalent the Hawks. In the end, Joe Johnson just isn't Lebron.
NBA Finals
Cavs (1) over Mavs (2) in 7
I actually think the Mavs match up well with the Cavs. Two good wings (Marion and Butler) to throw at Lebron. Two bigs for Shaq and Big Z. No real PF scoring threat so Dirk can just rebound and score, which are the two things he is best at. Again, not a quick, penetrating point guard so Kidd isn't outmatched defensively. And once again, I like the Mavs bench better than Clevaland's. The catch, of course, is Lebron. Lebron is not Kobe; he is the league's MVP, and I consider to be the second best player ever behind Jordan. Yes, already. So in the end, even though I like the Mavs' team better than the Cavs' team, I just don't see the Mavs topping HIM. Cleveland takes it.
Very entertaining playoffs. So, as always, just remember...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!
Round 1
Lakers (1) over Thunder (8) in 6
Don't get me wrong: I love the Thunder and KD more than anyone this side of Bill Simmons. But time and time again, the NBA has proved that no matter how good the young team going into the playoffs for the first time is, they do not win. There is a learning curve. Throw in the fact that while the Lakers do have their warts, they are still the top seed and returning champions in the more competitive conference for a reason. The Thunder will definitely steal a game, and probably two, but that's about it.
I'm reminded of Gene Hackman and Leonardo DiCaprio's conversation to each other in The Quick And The Dead right before they dueled. Leo was the young prettyboy who was exceptionally talented. Gene Hackman was the older villain who had mowed down all before him. Leo has the favor of the people, and is talking shit to Hackman, when Hackman spins around, grabs Leo (who is his son), and whispers to him, "I'm not sick or old, and you're not half the man I am.", and then goes out and promptly kills him in the duel. We all love the Thunder; they're the young favorites, and they're going to be great, and the Lakers are the old tyrants so we want them to lose. But they're not sick or old yet. It's not going to happen.
Cavs (1) over Bulls (8) in 4
And the Bulls reward for making the playoffs is...2 home games of revenue, I guess?
Mavs (2) over Spurs (7) in 6
Am I still scared of the Spurs? Of course. However, I feel the same way this year as I did last year: above any other "elite" team in the West, the Mavs are designed to beat the Spurs, and with the lack of success from the RJ trade it's arguable that the Spurs are still an elite team. Should be a tightly contested but never in doubt five to six game win for the Mavs.
Magic (2) over Bobcats (7) in 5
I'm sure a combination of the Bobcats playing well at home and the Magic getting lackadaisical will mean one win in Charlotte. That's about it.
Suns (3) over Blazers (6) in 7
This is the one game I watched that totally changed my opinion on the series; on Friday I would have said Suns in 5. The Suns looked fantastic to end the season; not only were they playing great, but Amare was playing like a man possessed. This was the player the NBA though was going to be it's next star three years ago. The matchup with the Blazers, though--even without Roy--is awful for the Suns. The Suns are not tall and are not long. The Blazers are. Amare had a hard time getting points against Aldridge and Camby last night, and I don't see that changing as the series goes on. The Suns didn't shoot particularly well from the three point line last night, and I don't see that lasting, which is why I still pick them out to come out on top. But given Portland's home crowd, their length, and the toughness with which that team plays, I think this is going to be a lot harder for the Suns than expected--especially if Amare gets frustrated, starts pouting, and starts playing/acting like the guy who almost got traded the last two years. This will be an interesting series.
Hawks (3) over Bucks (6) in 5
Even with Bogut, I think this is a five or six game series. Without Bogut, the Bucks are the overacheiving team that really doesn't have a prayer.
Jazz (5) over Nuggets (4) in 7
The most competitive series in the first round. It's basically going to boil down to this: which loss hurt the other team more, AK47 on the Jazz, or George Karl on the Nuggets? There's just been something off with the Nuggets all year, and they're talented enough to put together a good season in spite of it. My gut feeling is that in the end, that holds true and the Jazz are able to pull it out, but this series is basically a coin flip.
Heat (5) over Celtics (4) in 7
I totally agree with Bill Simmons in that this is a Celtics team that looks like it's ready to call it a day. KG can barely move and has looked this way all season; Wallace has been in CTC mode all year; Pierce, Allen, and Rondo always look like their team has pissed them off about something; Doc Rivers openly bailed a month ago when he started talking about retiring to watch his kids play next year. This is an old team in disarray who's ready to lick their wounds. A healthy DWade (for once) should be enough to put them over the top, and this will be some ugly basketball to watch.
Round 2
Lakers (1) over Jazz (5) in 6
This is the perfect example of why this is a somewhat frustrating season: I'd love to pick a team to beat the Lakers, who is one of the weakest number 1 seeds in recent memory...and yet I just don't see the Jazz doing it. The Jazz just never seem to play well against the Lakers, especially in Utah. It's almost a Jordan/Cleveland thing, where the Jazz home court edge goes away against the Lakers because the Utah faithful are used to seeing their teams lose. In the end, the Jazz/Lakers series are never as competitive as I feel they should be, with the Lakers always coming out on top.
Cavs (1) over Heat (5) in 5
Oh, the NBA will probably give DWade enough calls to push this to 6 games. But the Cavs will kick the shit out of the Heat or the Celtics, whoever makes it this far.
Mavs (2) over Suns (3) in 6
The Suns are a matchup problem for the Mavs, no doubt. But in the end, I don't believe that Phoenix is really playing that much better defense than they used to, and I don't think the Mavs will have that much of a problem outscoring them. Throw in the fact that the Suns will be physically and mentally drained from a tougher than expected series with Portland, and I think this will be another "close but never really in doubt" series.
Hawks (3) over Magic (2) in 7
That's right. I'm going with the Hawks over the Magic. Why? For the same reasons I mentioned in the preseason: Vince Carter for Turkoglu. The Magic are now getting to the point in the playoffs where you need a crunch time guy. Last year, it was unquestionably and solely Turkoglu. This year...who is it? Who takes the last shot for them? Honestly, if I was running the team, I would have the most faith in Matt Barnes. I like Matt Barnes, but that's not a good answer. The Hawks, on the other hand, not only know who their go to guy is, but have a good list of backups to fill in the clutch (in order, Crawford, Smith, and Horford) if Johnson can't create a shot. So the Hawks arguably have 4, whereas the Magic have none. Not good. Throw in the fact that I like the Smith/Horford/Pachulia combo against Howard--they can't beat Howard physically, but they can play away from the bucket well enough that it will pull him away some--and I think a tough-minded Hawks team can take a mentally suspect Magic team.
Conference Finals
Mavs (2) over Lakers (1) in 7
This will be a great series, and yes I'm being a little bit of a homer here. The Mavs have the bigs (Damp/Haywood/Dirk) to match the Lakers bigs (Bynum/Odom/Gasol). A better defensive lockdown small forward than the Lakers (Marion and Artest). A two guard who can compete with Kobe and make him work defensively (Butler). The Lakers don't have an answer for one of the Mavs' biggest weaknesses: a quick point guard who can get to the hole and score (Fisher and Kidd). And as for the bench...please. The Mavs bench is a HUGE upgrade over the Lakers.
The only thing that makes me nervous is that historically, the Mavs have always crumpled when playing the Lakers. However, this season, I didn't get that feel. This is a much tougher Mavs team that did not look intimidated by the Lakers, and Butler's addition (an ex-Kobe era Laker) will only help that. It'll be close...but in the end, I think it will be the Mavs.
Cavs (1) over Hawks (3) in 6
Add this to the "close games but series never really in doubt" list. The Hawks are a good team, and they'll push the Cavs, but I think the Cavs go small in this series and just outalent the Hawks. In the end, Joe Johnson just isn't Lebron.
NBA Finals
Cavs (1) over Mavs (2) in 7
I actually think the Mavs match up well with the Cavs. Two good wings (Marion and Butler) to throw at Lebron. Two bigs for Shaq and Big Z. No real PF scoring threat so Dirk can just rebound and score, which are the two things he is best at. Again, not a quick, penetrating point guard so Kidd isn't outmatched defensively. And once again, I like the Mavs bench better than Clevaland's. The catch, of course, is Lebron. Lebron is not Kobe; he is the league's MVP, and I consider to be the second best player ever behind Jordan. Yes, already. So in the end, even though I like the Mavs' team better than the Cavs' team, I just don't see the Mavs topping HIM. Cleveland takes it.
Very entertaining playoffs. So, as always, just remember...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 6:22 PM
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