2010 NBA Western Conference Preview

Let's get this party started. Even though the overall talent of the East is far less than the West as usual, because of all the excitement out East we'll lead off with the West for once.

Even in the West, Someones Got To Suck.

15. Minnesota Timberwolves
David Kahn is doing his best to make sure that the NBA doesn't hire any ex-reporters as GM's. And since we really don't need to say any more about a team who's two best players are unquestionably Michael Beasley and Kevin Love, check out this hilarious exchange where Kahn tries to compare Darko to Chris Webber, while speaking to Chris Webber.

14. Sacramento Kings
Some would say that this team has too much talent/promise to be in the "they suck" division. However, I feel like everything went right for Sacramento last season, and I don't think that's going to happen this season. Tyreke Evans came out of relative nowhere to win the ROY. The team gelled and were far more competitive than anyone thought they would be. You know what happened when all of that went right? They won 25 games and finished in second to last place. They've since added a very talented by certifiably insane asshole as a number 3 draft pick (DeMarcus Cousins), who plays the same position that players 2-4 on their depth chart play (in case you're wondering, Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, and Sam Dalembert in no particular order). So...let's just say that I don't expect this season to be as rosy as last, which wasn't very rosy at all.

13. Golden State Warriors
This is a Don Nelson team...without Don Nelson coaching. I mean, don't get me wrong: losing Don Nelson is always a good thing. But when the entire team is built around the Don Nelson smallball no defense thing, then that first season without him is going to be a tough as the team figures out, "You know what? A backcourt of two 6'2" 180 pound guards probably isn't going to work."

On that note, yahoo rankings had Steph Curry ranked 8th. Not 8th best point guard or shooting guard...8th overall. Are you fricking kidding me? Look, I know he's a cute kid, and he's really nice, and he plays real hard, so everyone likes him. And I acknowledge that he does one thing really well (shooting) and is a smart player. But seriously...can we stop the Steph Curry as a future All Star crap please? You're only winning a title if he's your fourth best player, and if he ever averages 20 points a game for your team, then you have a very bad team. These are the facts. Deal with it.

Either Frisky...Or Slowly Working Their Way Down

12. Memphis Grizzlies
Shockingly enough, this is actually a drop of two spots from last season. I'm torn on this team; I do think Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo are getting better, so that's good. I think Zach Randolph's productive and happy season was a fluke, which is bad. I think Hasheem Thabeet is what he is: a D league player, which is bad. I think that if Tony Allen is your savvy veteran who is supposed to lead you to the playoffs, then you are in for a shock, which is bad. So I think the Griz take a coupla steps back this season. But this section is very fluid; if they are slightly better or another team in this section is slightly worse, they could easily move up. Still no playoffs though.

11. Los Angeles Clippers
Before the season started, I was buying into "Clippers should make the playoffs!" Kool-Aid: Blake Griffin was coming back healthy, Eric Gordon looked great and picked up valuable experience playing for Team USA over the summer, Chris Kaman is a decent starting center, there's a halfway decent bench on this team, and Baron Davis...well, surely The Baron would be motivated this year? Right? He'd show in in shape, in 06-07 Golden State Warrior form, motivated by these young, hungry players, and they sneak into the playoffs.

Oh, Clippers.

Fast forward to now, where the Clips are 0-4 with a brutal next 10 game schedule; Eric Gordon is already giving quotes like this:

"It's very frustrating to be where we are right now," he said. "We could beat these teams we're playing against, but we're beating ourselves. I know how to win. This summer taught me how to win. We have so much talent on this team, but we need to be smarter. We beat ourselves in every game. I felt Portland was the only game where we all worked hard as a team. We can beat these teams we're playing but we're playing terrible."

and Baron Davis has admitted to being out of shape.

There's still plenty of time for this team to turn it around and move into that last playoff spot...but it is the Clippers. Poor Gordon & Griffin.

10. Denver Nuggets
Sorry Eazy. I think this is the season that the Nuggets craziness finally does them in. I think KMart's pining for a new contract (ridiculous) brings the team down. I think Chauncey pouts because he knows this isn't an elite team and starts looking for ways out because he's delusional and thinks he's still an elite player. I think once it starts going downhill, Nene packs it in and stops playing hard. And I think Melo gets traded by December, and the team goes into full blown rebuilding mode.

9. New Orleans Hornets
Well, the Hornets did get better. Trevor Ariza is a nice pickup. I think the last minute acquisition of Jerryd Bayless was a great move for them, as A) Marco Belinelli is not a starting shooting guard in the NBA, and B) as much as I love CP3, you MUST have a quality backup behind him for the 20 or so games he'll miss a year. In the end, the Hornets are a team that can make the playoffs if another team falters, or if CP3 has one of his 80 game, "I'm unquestionably the best point guard out here right now" seasons. But if the more talented teams don't falter, and CP3 has a good, not great season, and only plays in 60 games, then they'll be on the outside looking in.

8. Phoenix Suns
I don't want to pick the Suns to make the playoffs. The talent just isn't there anymore. However, if there's one thing the Steve Nash Suns have, it's the never say die, never count us out attitude, and as much as everyone might make fun of the "it's Steve Nash and 10 small forwards" lineup, it is unique enough and a good enough bunch of small forwards that they might, just might, go .500. So in a group where I don't love anyone for the last playoff spot, I'll go with the Suns until they prove me wrong.

Good...Not Really Good

7. Houston Rockets
This is the perfect Darel Morey team: it's unusual, but looks really good on paper; it's intriguing and different enough that you kind of buy in and start thinking, "you know what, yeah! This team can do something!"...but in the end, it's good, but not even close to great, and really doesn't scare anyone. I like the addition of Kevin Martin; this team needs a pure scorer on the perimeter. I love Aaron Brooks, and once again think they have a good bench, though they will miss Carl Landry and are playing Chase Budinger wayyyy too much.

In the end, the problem with this team is the same they've always had: Yao Ming. This "24 minutes a game no matter what" crap is, well, crap. First of all, if you want to limit his minutes, you need to do what I said a coupla years ago: sit him the first 20-25 games, and then bring him on full time. No team has ever nor will ever win with a part-time star. Second, this team is built to be an uptempo team: Brooks, Martin, Lee, & Lowry are a great uptempo backcourt; Scola is a great uptempo center, and if you want anything out of Jeffries it's by playing uptempo. Yao Ming, of course, is the antithesis of that. So this team is going to start getting it going with their small lineup...and then Yao will come in and drag them all down. Then Yao will have to go out because he can only play so many minutes...and then it will take them too long to bring the tempo back up before Yao comes back.

Good talent, decent team, very poorly organized.

6. Portland Trailblazers
Portland is also a team that can be described as "slowly working it's way down", only from a much higher perch. "Wait, what?" you say. "Portland? Declining? It's a talented young team! How do you figure?" Well, I'm glad you asked:

1) Portland's glut of young talent has either proved to be not that talented, or has left via free agency. Travis Outlaw is in New Jersey. Jerryd Bayless is in New Orleans. Martell Webster is in Minnesota. Steve Blake is on the Lakers. Rudy Fernandez is unhappy and unable to get off the bench. Nicolas Batum is "meh" at best. The Portland roster, that was oozing with talent, has proved once again what talent will get you: nowhere.
2) The Portland free agency splash was a colossal failure. With all of Portland's maneuvering, and cap space, and promises, they got...Andre Miller and Wes Mathews. Let's just say that's not what the plan called for.
3) To describe the front office as "a mess" would be an insult to messes everywhere.Kevin Pritchard was once--Hell, he still probably is even though he's not working--the toast of the league for GM's. He was unquestionably a top five GM. Now Paul Allen has apparently lost his mind and wants to become the Jerry Jones/Al Davis of the Northeast, I don't even know if Portland has named a full time GM at this point, and even Nate McMillan doesn't like to talk about what is going on for fear of being fired. Organizational disharmony affects the product on the floor. Never doubt that, and when that disharmony is coming from the owner, that means it's not going away anytime soon (trust someone from Dallas--ahem, Jerry Jones/Mark Cuban/Tom Hicks--on this).
4) We're starting to realize that Portland's stars just aren't that good. Look, I like Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. I really do. They seem like nice guys, they play hard every night, don't talk shit, approach the game the right way. And they are great players, unquestionably. But are they superstars? Certainly not. Are they even stars? I think most people--myself included--are leaning towards no. Great players, guys you want to root for, sure. But their ceiling is what it is.
Which leads us to the biggest reason...
4) Like Sam Bowie & Michael Jordan before them, Greg Oden & Kevin Durant are going to absolutely poison this team. Can you believe there was even a debate about how to draft? I mean seriously! The best we can say about this situation is that in 20 years when this happens again, maybe Portland will have learned it's lesson and will take the transcendent player. Just watch: Oden will continue to show promise in stretches but will never put a really good run together, and will continue to get hurt, as Durant continues to soar for YEARS (more on this later), and the bitterness will poison the fans, the players, the front office, everyone...it's inescapable. Slowly but surely, it will drive this franchise down.

So there you go. It's still a good team, but you heard it here first: without serious changes to the roster and the front office, this team will never truly compete for the Western Conference title, let alone the NBA title.

5. San Antonio Spurs
Congratulations, Spurs fans! For the upteemth year in a row, I'm predicting the inevitable decline of the Spurs. You know what? Just go read one of my previous Spurs preseason predictions from the last coupla years. It's about the same, and I'm sure I'll be wrong again. Sigh.

Really Good...Not Great

4. Utah Jazz
Count me among those who like the revamped Utah Jazz roster. The thing this team lacked--and always needed--was a true low post presence. Boozer is a good power forward, but is much more a mid-range jump shooter than a traditional back to the basket guy. Jefferson--assuming he's healthy--is that guy. This leaves Okur to be the three point shooter he is in his heart of hearts, AK47 to be the floater he is, and Paul Milsap to be the mid range jump shooter he is.

It will take a bit for this team to gel, but this is a solid team that will be fine in the end. The only thing holding them back is the hole at shooting guard, and let's just say "hole" is being polite. If the Jazz have the opportunity to pick up even an average two, they need to do so.

3. Your Dallas Mavericks!
So in the end, Erica Dampier's contract netted us...Tyson Chandler. Um, yeah.

The good news is, this is by far the best collection of bigs in franchise history, and Tyson Chandler will average 10pts a game catching oops from Jason Kidd (like he did with Chris Paul). The bad news is, in spite of these centers, we still don't have a true back to the basket pivot that this franchise so desperately needs.

I can easily see the Mavs winning the West, if LA coasts like I think they will, and if OKC struggles a bit in their first season of being "The Man". But once again, this team is a tough second round out and that's all. To truly be a threat, the Mavs must put another star next to Dirk.

Greatness

2. LA Lakers
Love the additions of Matt Barnes & Steve Blake. Barring an injury to Kobe or Pau, or a total meltdown from Ron Ron, they win the West again this year.

1. OKC Thunder
I love the Thunder as much as anyone. I think they have a great squad, and I think Kevin Durant is going to be a great player for an unbelievably long time. They guy will be able to score 20 points a game in his late 30's. He's 6'10" with ridiculously long arms and an unbelievable jumper! He'll be a starter on a good squad, knocking down 3's when he's 40! It's unbelievable.

But I digress. I think this team has some holes--I don't know if Jeff Green is a championship power forward, and James Harden as the starting two guard is not acceptable--but it's young, hungry, loves playing together, and has a top three player in the game (Durant) and a player who might be ready to step into the Top 20 this season (Westbrook). I also love the Kristic/Ibake combo at center. They can't beat the Lakers in a playoff series this season, but is the favorite over anyone else. This is the team of the future in the West, and the future starts now.