2010 Eastern Conference Preview & Thoughts On The Season So Far
Since I'm far too late to do a true Eastern Conference Preview, and it's past time for some NBA quick hits, here's my predictions on how the East will wind out, along with just thoughts:
* First, the East:
Now on to the rest of the random thoughts:
* I like Orlando to win the East...but I LOVE that Vince Carter--a career 80% free throw shooter--just managed to raise his FT% to 70, after missing those two free throws to essentially knock Orlando out of the playoffs last year. Some things you can just count on, like Orlando always doing well in the regular season, but never winning a title as long as their starting backcourt is Jameer Nelson & VC.
* The Hawks are D-U-N done as a true contender. They're all paid, they know they aren't good enough to beat any elite teams, and the city of Atlanta could give a shit about them so they're just going to go through the motions.
* I'd love to pick Milwaukee as the "overachieving team from the year before who drops like a stone this year", but unfortunately, the East bottom two thirds are so bad I think they might actually slip into the playoffs.
* How does Joe Dumars have a job? Seriously?
* New York made two major acquisitions over the summer: 1) Amare, and 2) the return of the MSG crowd now that they have Amare to cheer for. And trust me...the crowd is more important to the team than Amare is.
* I've been saying this since he got snubbed on draft day: don't sleep on Danny Granger.
* Do you realize that the Wizards starting small forward is Kirk Hinrich? You know what's even more scary: I actually think it's a really good idea. It's way too rare that coaches do the, "You know what? I'm just going to throw my best five guys out there, rather than playing someone who sucks simply to fill a position hole." On a crappy team like Washington, good for Flip for at least trying something unconventional to get some wins.
* Also can't believe I'm saying this about the Wiz: I'm starting to like Javelle McGee a little.
* I don't know what to think about San Antonio. I should be terrified of them: they've got off to a great start, and Jefferson is playing like the perfect compliment that they traded for two years ago. The team is clicking, the young guys are playing well, and not even TP being a ridiculously shady Frenchman has slowed the team down (seriously, how does a team deal with the "ummmm...he's getting divorced from his hot actress wife because he was fucking one of our teammate's wives!!!! scenario? I mean, obviously none of their wives are ever allowed to talk to TP, ever. But isn't there some line amongst teammates that can't be crossed...and banging a teammates wife and continuing to text her years after he left the team has to be one of them, right? If I were the Spurs wives, I'd be pissed at the Spurs for not freaking out about this. But I digress...). So I should be terrified of the Spurs...
but I'm not, and here's why: the Spurs love to make huge runs, and snap off a 25-3 record in a stretch. During their title years, they did this at the end of the season, and rode that momentum into the playoffs. As time has gone on, these streaks didn't go on as long (15-3) instead, and happened at more random times of the year. So the very fact that they started the year like this makes me think that their shooting their wad early, especially when you consider the age of Timmy & Manu (and even TP is getting old at this point), and the fact they they have faced injury problems in the past few seasons before. So we'll see...but I don't think this is a return to championship form for SA; I think they're just going off too soon.
* I don't know what to think about the Clips. Only the Clippers could do this. This team has a good young PG in Eric Bledsoe, a borderline All Star in Eric Gordon, and as for Blake Griffin...good God. This guys in UNBELIEVABLE. I haven't seen someone dunk that hard and athletically since...well, ever. He dunks with Shawn Kemp's athleticism and flair, but with Charles Barkley's ferociousness. It's unbelievable. He's going to be the best PF in the league for a long, long time. ESPN had a clip of his top ten dunks the other day, and all ten of them were great and worthy of a top ten list. The unbelievable part? HE'S A FRICKIN ROOKIE!!! HE'S 15 GAMES INTO HIS CAREER, AND THEY'RE ALREADY MAKING TOP TEN DUNKS LISTS OF HIM BECAUSE THEY NEED TO!!! He's amazing! So with all these good things happening...
HOW IN THE HELL ARE THE CLIPPERS 4-15?
It's just insane. I feel like a gambler who made all of his bets perfectly, but still somehow lost. If anyone doesn't believe in karma, please just point them to the Clips.
* Seriously...free Kevin Love. What the Hell is Kurt Rhambis doing? Why is this organization jerking around their franchise player? And it's still going, just in more subtle ways: so now because of the public outcry and the amazing stats Love has been putting up, he's getting the minutes he deserves. But last night, when the Mavs were kicking the shit out of the Wolves, and had put guys 8-12 on the floor (even Steve Novak was in the game), and even when the Wolves had pulled their "starters" like Beasley and Brewer...there's Kevin Love, finishing out the game. Hey Timberwolves? When the other team puts their scrubs in with a 25 point lead and 5 minutes to go, you might want to pull your franchise player out of the game...unless you want him to get hurt. Ummmmmmm...
* So does Portland ever draft a big again? I mean ever?
* Does anyone else feel like crying when they see Steve Nash's "I have to be brave, got to keep my guy's spirits up" face? No? Yeah, ummm...me neither.
* Just trust me on Denver. It'll come.
* I love how everyone is dumping on OKC. For as "bad" as they've played--and yes, they aren't playing as well as I expected--do you realize they are 2.5 games out of first place? For as bad as James Harden is (watch him play sometimes. It's unbelievable. He's the most unathletic person I've ever seen. Just watch him run...he runs like he's an alien that taken over a human's body, and doesn't exactly know how to work it, but has kind of been watching other people, and is imitating what they do, but just hasn't gotten the hang of it yet. Then watch him anytime he touches the ball: you can see that he knows he's not good enough to play in the league, but he wants to keep collecting a check, so all he wants to do is pass it away as quickly as possible, in spite of the fact that he is a shooting guard. When he does put up a shot, it's a God-awful jumper that the goal isn't to make the shot, but is to put up such a bad shot that it surprises the defender and doesn't allow him to block it--thus keeping up the facade that he belongs in the league. I swear, I haven't seen him make a shot this season. He's so bad, I can talk about all of the things he's bad at, and not even bring up how creepy his terrorist beard is. But again, I digress.), Russell Westbrook has been that much better (why yes! I did draft him on my FL team! Thanks for asking!), vaulting himself into top 15 player status. KD & Jeff Green have both missed games. This team might not end up in first place, but they will be top 3 easily by season's end. Don't jump off the bandwagon too fast.
* Let not the Spurs fans say I'm biased, because I feel the same way about the Mavs as I do the Spurs. Love the record, it's great. Love the way Dirk is playing, even if I don't like the fact that he rebounds less and less every year. Love the way Chandler is playing and has fit in. Love the good D the team is playing. Lots of good things to sir.
That being said, I see the same playoff team I've seen the last several years: a first round win, and a tough but not too tough second round flameout.
The Mavs have a crater at shooting guard. Not a hole, a crater. Look, I love JET, and he's playing well right now. But at his age, if you're a true championship contender, he's an eighth, seventh man at best. He's not your starting 2 guard and your go to player to create his own shot at crunch time. And that's the Mavs problem: as good as Dirk is, every elite team needs a perimeter player who can create his own shot out of nothing in crunch time. And the Mavs most certainly do not have that.
The one thing I'll say is this: if Roddy comes back from injury and manages to improve on last season, and the defense holds, and the shit play from Butler was just a bad back that needed some rest and wasn't his age setting in and his career coming to a close, then this team can compete. But they need all of those things to be a true elite team, and not just a team that puts up lots of regular season wins.
* Finally, the Heat. Oh yes...it's past time to talk about them. Let me assure you of this, which you'll just have to take my word on: nothing at all that has happened to this team so far has surprised me.
Is this an amazingly talented team? Of course. But too many people seemed to forget two things: 1) it takes all teams--but especially teams with great perimeter players--time to gel, and 2) this team has some big holes.
First, this team has proved unequivocally what the Olympics has showed us: that it takes teams--especially teams with elite playmakers who are used to having the ball in their hands--time to gel. The Heat are no exception, and since the one of the best 2 guards and the best small forward--both of whom play point frequently--are joining up, of course it was going to take time to figure out the pecking order, how best to play with each other, etc. The second best player Dwyane Wade ever had on the Heat was Lamar Odom. Okay, it was really Bennet Salvadore, but you know what I mean. This is not a guy used to having talent around him, and getting used to that was/is going to take some time. Fortunately it's the East, and they have plenty of time to figure it out and still be a top four team.
More importantly, though, is the holes in the team. As good as this team is at 2, 3, and 4, this team has a huge hole at point, and not a hole...not a crater...let's call it an extinction level even marker at BIG. First, defensively, the Heat are okay at point guard. Chalmers is a good defensive PG, and Eddie House spent enough time on the Celts that he is okay there. The problem with the Heat is that they are atrocious offensively at PG, so they can't take advantage of that weakness in others. Dallas and the Lakers are great examples. Kidd and Fisher are absolutely atrocious defensive PG's. One of the best ways to beat those two teams is to attack that position. The Heat, however, have no one who can even pretend to do that. Huge boost to two of their rivals in a championship race. The biggest problem is at BIG, and I say BIG meaning both center and the Power part of Power Forward. Look, Bosh is a very good player. He's a great face up scorer and great on a break, and has a decent little post game. He works hard to snag some rebounds. But that's it. He's not a BIG, meaning a tough presence who can score with power on the block. He's not a BIG in that he's a rebounder who snags rebounds over two other guys with his strength and leaping ability. He's not a BIG in that he blocks any shots. Really, he's a 6'10" small forward with a better post up game than three point game. It's who he is. Now, the Heat would be able to get away with him at PF...if they had a decent center. But they don't. They have Joel Fricking Anthony, and Big Z's corpse, which I shall henceforth rename "Igor" in homage to Terry Prachett. These are two of the worst centers in the history of the league. Those are two HUGE holes, which A) Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol (yes, finally, Gasol will be the tougher power forward in a matchup with another elite team. Who ever thought that would happen? Wait, the Apocalypse isn't upon us, is it?), Andrew Bynum, Dirk, KG, and even Kendrick Perkins will be able to take advantage of.
This is what makes me really excited about the Miami Heat: they can give us a definitive answer on whether or not Dwight Howard is a Superstar. In the playoffs, the Magic are a team that can beat the Heat (no pun intended, seriously) even when the team is all on the same page, but only if Howard averages a 30-15-5 (that's blocks, not assists). We have that rare opportunity to find out who a star player is: if Howard puts up his usual 20-10 with nothing in fourth quarters and the Magic lose, then he's a star (think David Robinson). If he demolishes the Heat like he should and the Magic wins the series, then he's a superstar (think Olajuwon). We will have an answer from Howard in the playoffs, and that's an exciting thing to see.
It's why Boston signed Jermaine O'Neal's corpse, and Shaq's fat ass (though in fairness to Shaq, he had lost a surprising amount of weight for the start of the season). It's why the Lakers made sure they held on to Odom, and haven't totally given up on Bynum. It's why the Mavs traded for Tyson Chandler and overpaid Haywood. It's why the Bulls won't trade Noah for Melo and signed Boozer. It's the blood in the water that drives sharks crazy.
But the fascinating thing about the Heat? We'll see. They're so good, it might not matter. This team in many ways is the opposite of the Mavs: it's not a regular season team because of the aforementioned holes, but in the playoffs, when these stars are used to playing with each other, and they're going full steam, watch out. No matter where they end up in the standings and who is coaching them when they get there, the Heat WILL be a championship contender. You can count it.
This year especially...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!
* First, the East:
1. Orlando Magic
2. Boston Celtics
3. Miami Heat
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. New York Knicks
7. Indiana Pacers
8. Milwaukee Bucks
9. Charlotte Bobcats
10. Washington Wizards
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Cleveland Cavaliers
13. New Jersey Nets
14. Detroit Pistons
15. Toronto Raptors
Now on to the rest of the random thoughts:
* I like Orlando to win the East...but I LOVE that Vince Carter--a career 80% free throw shooter--just managed to raise his FT% to 70, after missing those two free throws to essentially knock Orlando out of the playoffs last year. Some things you can just count on, like Orlando always doing well in the regular season, but never winning a title as long as their starting backcourt is Jameer Nelson & VC.
* The Hawks are D-U-N done as a true contender. They're all paid, they know they aren't good enough to beat any elite teams, and the city of Atlanta could give a shit about them so they're just going to go through the motions.
* I'd love to pick Milwaukee as the "overachieving team from the year before who drops like a stone this year", but unfortunately, the East bottom two thirds are so bad I think they might actually slip into the playoffs.
* How does Joe Dumars have a job? Seriously?
* New York made two major acquisitions over the summer: 1) Amare, and 2) the return of the MSG crowd now that they have Amare to cheer for. And trust me...the crowd is more important to the team than Amare is.
* I've been saying this since he got snubbed on draft day: don't sleep on Danny Granger.
* Do you realize that the Wizards starting small forward is Kirk Hinrich? You know what's even more scary: I actually think it's a really good idea. It's way too rare that coaches do the, "You know what? I'm just going to throw my best five guys out there, rather than playing someone who sucks simply to fill a position hole." On a crappy team like Washington, good for Flip for at least trying something unconventional to get some wins.
* Also can't believe I'm saying this about the Wiz: I'm starting to like Javelle McGee a little.
* I don't know what to think about San Antonio. I should be terrified of them: they've got off to a great start, and Jefferson is playing like the perfect compliment that they traded for two years ago. The team is clicking, the young guys are playing well, and not even TP being a ridiculously shady Frenchman has slowed the team down (seriously, how does a team deal with the "ummmm...he's getting divorced from his hot actress wife because he was fucking one of our teammate's wives!!!! scenario? I mean, obviously none of their wives are ever allowed to talk to TP, ever. But isn't there some line amongst teammates that can't be crossed...and banging a teammates wife and continuing to text her years after he left the team has to be one of them, right? If I were the Spurs wives, I'd be pissed at the Spurs for not freaking out about this. But I digress...). So I should be terrified of the Spurs...
but I'm not, and here's why: the Spurs love to make huge runs, and snap off a 25-3 record in a stretch. During their title years, they did this at the end of the season, and rode that momentum into the playoffs. As time has gone on, these streaks didn't go on as long (15-3) instead, and happened at more random times of the year. So the very fact that they started the year like this makes me think that their shooting their wad early, especially when you consider the age of Timmy & Manu (and even TP is getting old at this point), and the fact they they have faced injury problems in the past few seasons before. So we'll see...but I don't think this is a return to championship form for SA; I think they're just going off too soon.
* I don't know what to think about the Clips. Only the Clippers could do this. This team has a good young PG in Eric Bledsoe, a borderline All Star in Eric Gordon, and as for Blake Griffin...good God. This guys in UNBELIEVABLE. I haven't seen someone dunk that hard and athletically since...well, ever. He dunks with Shawn Kemp's athleticism and flair, but with Charles Barkley's ferociousness. It's unbelievable. He's going to be the best PF in the league for a long, long time. ESPN had a clip of his top ten dunks the other day, and all ten of them were great and worthy of a top ten list. The unbelievable part? HE'S A FRICKIN ROOKIE!!! HE'S 15 GAMES INTO HIS CAREER, AND THEY'RE ALREADY MAKING TOP TEN DUNKS LISTS OF HIM BECAUSE THEY NEED TO!!! He's amazing! So with all these good things happening...
HOW IN THE HELL ARE THE CLIPPERS 4-15?
It's just insane. I feel like a gambler who made all of his bets perfectly, but still somehow lost. If anyone doesn't believe in karma, please just point them to the Clips.
* Seriously...free Kevin Love. What the Hell is Kurt Rhambis doing? Why is this organization jerking around their franchise player? And it's still going, just in more subtle ways: so now because of the public outcry and the amazing stats Love has been putting up, he's getting the minutes he deserves. But last night, when the Mavs were kicking the shit out of the Wolves, and had put guys 8-12 on the floor (even Steve Novak was in the game), and even when the Wolves had pulled their "starters" like Beasley and Brewer...there's Kevin Love, finishing out the game. Hey Timberwolves? When the other team puts their scrubs in with a 25 point lead and 5 minutes to go, you might want to pull your franchise player out of the game...unless you want him to get hurt. Ummmmmmm...
* So does Portland ever draft a big again? I mean ever?
* Does anyone else feel like crying when they see Steve Nash's "I have to be brave, got to keep my guy's spirits up" face? No? Yeah, ummm...me neither.
* Just trust me on Denver. It'll come.
* I love how everyone is dumping on OKC. For as "bad" as they've played--and yes, they aren't playing as well as I expected--do you realize they are 2.5 games out of first place? For as bad as James Harden is (watch him play sometimes. It's unbelievable. He's the most unathletic person I've ever seen. Just watch him run...he runs like he's an alien that taken over a human's body, and doesn't exactly know how to work it, but has kind of been watching other people, and is imitating what they do, but just hasn't gotten the hang of it yet. Then watch him anytime he touches the ball: you can see that he knows he's not good enough to play in the league, but he wants to keep collecting a check, so all he wants to do is pass it away as quickly as possible, in spite of the fact that he is a shooting guard. When he does put up a shot, it's a God-awful jumper that the goal isn't to make the shot, but is to put up such a bad shot that it surprises the defender and doesn't allow him to block it--thus keeping up the facade that he belongs in the league. I swear, I haven't seen him make a shot this season. He's so bad, I can talk about all of the things he's bad at, and not even bring up how creepy his terrorist beard is. But again, I digress.), Russell Westbrook has been that much better (why yes! I did draft him on my FL team! Thanks for asking!), vaulting himself into top 15 player status. KD & Jeff Green have both missed games. This team might not end up in first place, but they will be top 3 easily by season's end. Don't jump off the bandwagon too fast.
* Let not the Spurs fans say I'm biased, because I feel the same way about the Mavs as I do the Spurs. Love the record, it's great. Love the way Dirk is playing, even if I don't like the fact that he rebounds less and less every year. Love the way Chandler is playing and has fit in. Love the good D the team is playing. Lots of good things to sir.
That being said, I see the same playoff team I've seen the last several years: a first round win, and a tough but not too tough second round flameout.
The Mavs have a crater at shooting guard. Not a hole, a crater. Look, I love JET, and he's playing well right now. But at his age, if you're a true championship contender, he's an eighth, seventh man at best. He's not your starting 2 guard and your go to player to create his own shot at crunch time. And that's the Mavs problem: as good as Dirk is, every elite team needs a perimeter player who can create his own shot out of nothing in crunch time. And the Mavs most certainly do not have that.
The one thing I'll say is this: if Roddy comes back from injury and manages to improve on last season, and the defense holds, and the shit play from Butler was just a bad back that needed some rest and wasn't his age setting in and his career coming to a close, then this team can compete. But they need all of those things to be a true elite team, and not just a team that puts up lots of regular season wins.
* Finally, the Heat. Oh yes...it's past time to talk about them. Let me assure you of this, which you'll just have to take my word on: nothing at all that has happened to this team so far has surprised me.
Is this an amazingly talented team? Of course. But too many people seemed to forget two things: 1) it takes all teams--but especially teams with great perimeter players--time to gel, and 2) this team has some big holes.
First, this team has proved unequivocally what the Olympics has showed us: that it takes teams--especially teams with elite playmakers who are used to having the ball in their hands--time to gel. The Heat are no exception, and since the one of the best 2 guards and the best small forward--both of whom play point frequently--are joining up, of course it was going to take time to figure out the pecking order, how best to play with each other, etc. The second best player Dwyane Wade ever had on the Heat was Lamar Odom. Okay, it was really Bennet Salvadore, but you know what I mean. This is not a guy used to having talent around him, and getting used to that was/is going to take some time. Fortunately it's the East, and they have plenty of time to figure it out and still be a top four team.
More importantly, though, is the holes in the team. As good as this team is at 2, 3, and 4, this team has a huge hole at point, and not a hole...not a crater...let's call it an extinction level even marker at BIG. First, defensively, the Heat are okay at point guard. Chalmers is a good defensive PG, and Eddie House spent enough time on the Celts that he is okay there. The problem with the Heat is that they are atrocious offensively at PG, so they can't take advantage of that weakness in others. Dallas and the Lakers are great examples. Kidd and Fisher are absolutely atrocious defensive PG's. One of the best ways to beat those two teams is to attack that position. The Heat, however, have no one who can even pretend to do that. Huge boost to two of their rivals in a championship race. The biggest problem is at BIG, and I say BIG meaning both center and the Power part of Power Forward. Look, Bosh is a very good player. He's a great face up scorer and great on a break, and has a decent little post game. He works hard to snag some rebounds. But that's it. He's not a BIG, meaning a tough presence who can score with power on the block. He's not a BIG in that he's a rebounder who snags rebounds over two other guys with his strength and leaping ability. He's not a BIG in that he blocks any shots. Really, he's a 6'10" small forward with a better post up game than three point game. It's who he is. Now, the Heat would be able to get away with him at PF...if they had a decent center. But they don't. They have Joel Fricking Anthony, and Big Z's corpse, which I shall henceforth rename "Igor" in homage to Terry Prachett. These are two of the worst centers in the history of the league. Those are two HUGE holes, which A) Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol (yes, finally, Gasol will be the tougher power forward in a matchup with another elite team. Who ever thought that would happen? Wait, the Apocalypse isn't upon us, is it?), Andrew Bynum, Dirk, KG, and even Kendrick Perkins will be able to take advantage of.
This is what makes me really excited about the Miami Heat: they can give us a definitive answer on whether or not Dwight Howard is a Superstar. In the playoffs, the Magic are a team that can beat the Heat (no pun intended, seriously) even when the team is all on the same page, but only if Howard averages a 30-15-5 (that's blocks, not assists). We have that rare opportunity to find out who a star player is: if Howard puts up his usual 20-10 with nothing in fourth quarters and the Magic lose, then he's a star (think David Robinson). If he demolishes the Heat like he should and the Magic wins the series, then he's a superstar (think Olajuwon). We will have an answer from Howard in the playoffs, and that's an exciting thing to see.
It's why Boston signed Jermaine O'Neal's corpse, and Shaq's fat ass (though in fairness to Shaq, he had lost a surprising amount of weight for the start of the season). It's why the Lakers made sure they held on to Odom, and haven't totally given up on Bynum. It's why the Mavs traded for Tyson Chandler and overpaid Haywood. It's why the Bulls won't trade Noah for Melo and signed Boozer. It's the blood in the water that drives sharks crazy.
But the fascinating thing about the Heat? We'll see. They're so good, it might not matter. This team in many ways is the opposite of the Mavs: it's not a regular season team because of the aforementioned holes, but in the playoffs, when these stars are used to playing with each other, and they're going full steam, watch out. No matter where they end up in the standings and who is coaching them when they get there, the Heat WILL be a championship contender. You can count it.
This year especially...the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 2:53 AM
2 Comments:
The spurs shot their load too soon. That was one of the best lines I've ever read on this blog. And premajaculation has always been a good sports simile.
-John
Also, in terms of blowing their load too soon -- the Jazz. Screw the Jazz.
It's okay, Tony Parker is French.
Can you imagine if OKC had gotten the first pick a couple years ago, instead of third? WOW!
After the Decision, I figured injuries would kill the Heat's season. It was just too karmic. The loss of Haslem is huge. They might still win it all, but he and Wade were the only tough, pro's pros on the team.
Also, I'm really glad Garnett got some of his atheleticism back. Last year was painful to watch.
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