The Top 20 NBA Players Going Into 09-10
I'm back! Sorry about the extended delay. Let's just say that the longest Coupla Things in the history of Coupla Things everywhere is on it's way, and of course the 09-10 NBA Season Preview. But first...we'll stretch.
I was at a party the other day, and fellow NBA enthusiast and the second biggest Spur's fan I know made a comment about Brandon Roy being one of the top five players in the league.
I laughed, of course.
"Top ten for sure."
I disagreed again, but it got me thinking, who are the Top 20 best players in the league? It turned out to be a lot harder list to compile than I expected. Just how good are young players like Roy, Deron Williams, and Kevin Durant? Was Pau Gasol's first season with the Lakers a bit of a fluke, or is he really the best center in the West? How much does Timmy & Little Stevie Nash have left? Who is the best player on the Nuggets, Melo or Chauncey? And the toughest question of all...what the Hell is up with KG's knee?
Simple ground rules: You're playing a pickup game, you have 30 players standing there, and you pick 20 of them. Contracts don't matter. Age doesn't matter in the sense of "I'd rather have this guy going into his prime than this guy as his star falls"; all that matters is how they are going to play RIGHT NOW. That means, though, that injuries/durability matter, as that affects how they will play and how much they will play this season.
So here it is. Enjoy.
20. Al Jefferson, PF/C, Timberwolves
08-09: 23.1 pts, 10.9 rebs, 1.7 blks, 49.7% fg, 73.8% ft. 3 straight double-double (10+ pts 10+ rebs) seasons.
Remember all the complaints after the Gasol trade (and rightly so) about how ridiculous the trade was? Notice how there wasn't nearly as much complaining when KG was traded? This is the reason. In 5 seasons in the league Jefferson is an established double double guy with an outstanding low post game, including 20-10 the last two. He did tear his ACL 50 games into the season last year, but is expected to bounce back nicely from that. He is the lynchpin of Minnesota's increasingly promising future.
19. Amare Stoudamire, PF/C, Suns
08-09: 21.4 pts, 8.1 rebs, 1.1 blks, 53.9% fg, 83.5% ft.
Five years ago Amare was unquestionably top ten who was a lock to go even higher. Now, though, after a myriad of injuries--specifiically to his eyes and his knees--and growing reputation as a locker room cancern (which affects how your team plays, so does factor in here), I've barely got Amare in the top top 20. If he wants to get higher, his defense needs to improve significantly, in both his overall play and his statistics (he needs to average 2 blocks a game). Another thing about Amare that no one ever talks about: For all of his talent/leaping ability/wingspan, he's never pulled down 10 rebounds in a season. At the end of his career, we're going to end up wondering why he wasn't able to do more.
18. Carmelo Anthony, SF, Nuggets
08-09: 22.8 pts, 6.8 rebs, 3.4 asts, 1.1 stls, 44.3% fg, 79.3% ft, 37.1% 3pt.
You're going to have to accept this fact people: This is what Melo is. He's an All Star small forward who is not a superstar, and will never win a championship as his team's best player. That's it, and there's NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. Carmelo is the modern Patrick Ewing: a player who came out of college with remarkable pedigree, put up just enough stats that people consider him to be a star, but never won enough to actually earn star status, driving fans crazy because their initial assessment of their talent was so high. It's not Melo's fault, just like it wasn't Ewing's. They are who they are, and it's us who overestimated them.
17. Chauncey Billups, PG, Nuggets
08-09: 17.9 pts, 7.5 asts, 5.0 rebs, 1.2 stls, 42.0% fg, 91.3% ft, 41.0% 3pt. Led Nuggets to surprising Western Conference Finals berth.
I hesitate to put Chauncey this high, because he's reaching that age where point guards show up and have finally lost enough quickness that they just CANNOT compete anymore. However, I think he's still got 1-2 good years left in him (and then probably even 1-2 solid bench/veteran presence years after that), and after his dramatic influence on the Nuggets last season he proved that he is the MVP of the Nuggets, a team that made the Western Conference Finals. That puts him in the Top 20.
16. Caron Butler SF, Wizards
08-09: 20.8 pts, 6.2 rebs, 4.3 asts, 1.6 stls, 45.3% fg, 85.8% ft, 31.0% 3pt.
Want to know who the most underrated player in the NBA is? You're looking at him. Compare his stats with Melo's, who was on a team that included scorers like Chauncey, Nene, and JR Smith. The only other good player on the Wizards? Antawn Jamison. Butler has thrived for years as the underappreciated, jack of all trades sidekick who gets lost in Gilber Arenas shadow. He also gets bonus points for being nicknamed Tough Juice for having a love of Mountain Dew that was so consuming that the NBA told him he had to stop drinking it during games (he repotedly would drink a 2-liter of MD before the game, a 2-liter at halftime) because he was injesting so much caffeine that it was to the point of being a performance enhancer. Now that's doing the Dew.
15. Kevin Durant, SG/SF/PF, Thunder
08-09: 25.3 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.3 stls, 47.6% fg, 86.3% ft, 42.2% 3pt.
Second year in the league. SECOND YEAR. He will be at least five spots higher by season's end, and could be up to 10 spots higher. It's really as simple as that.
14. Brandon Roy, PG/SG, Blazers
08-09: 22.6 pts, 5.1 asts, 4.7 rebs, 1.1 stls, 48.0% fg, 82.4% ft, 37.7% 3pt.
Look, I love Brandon Roy just like everyone does. He's one of the nicest guys in the league, he's a clutch player, he committed wholeheartedly to a suffering franchise, and he's only in his third year. That being said...I just can't shake the feeling that Roy had what will be the best season of his career last year. He was finally healthy for the entire season last season, which I don't fully expect to continue, and I don't see Roy as the dominant player on a championship team. I can see Roy as the best player on a dominant team that wins the championship, ala the Pistons, and I can see Roy as the SECOND best player on a championship team, but not the best. I think that we like him so much that we overrate him slightly, and the Blazers performance and his stats support that theory.
13. Paul Pierce, SG, Celtics
08-09: 20.5 pts, 5.6 rebs, 3.6 asts, 1.0 stls, 45.7% fg, 83.0% ft, 39.1% 3pt.
What can you say about Paul Pierce that hasn't been said? He's only got a year or two more before he leaves the Top 20 and goes into tweener range (ala his teammate, Ray Allen), but he's still the go to guy of The Big Three in Boston.
12. Deron Williams, PG, Jazz
08-09: 19.4 pts, 10.7 asts, 2.9 rebs, 1.1 stls, 47.1% fg, 84.9% ft, 31.0% 3pts.
Lost amongst the disappointing Jazz season was another phenominal performance from Deron Williams, who improved his fourth year in a row in spite of fighting through injuries. The only reason he's not more ballyhooed (he's probably second to Tough Juice as the most underrated player) is he had the misfortune of joining the league the same season as CP3. One could make a strong case that he is the second best point guard in the league, and most likely will be at season's end given Little Stevie Nash's age.
11. Kevin Garnett, PF, Celtics
08-09: 15.8 pts, 8.5 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 blks, 1.1 stls, 53.1% fg, 84.1% ft.
The Great Enigma. Where is KG on this list after his knee problems last season? He could be 5 spots higher or off of the Top 20. I'm very concerned that the latter is more realistic; with well over 1000 games in his career, it's quite possible that KG's knees will never allow him to be the player he once was. C'est la vie. I'll put him here for now, but he's in kind of a "there's no middle groung; he'll either come back and be the dominant player he was, or he's done and will fade away" zone.
10. Little Stevie Nash, PG, Suns
08-09: 15.7 pts, 9.7 asts, 3.1 rebs, .7 stls, 50.3% fg, 93.3% ft, 43.9% 3pt.
Almost certainly the last year in the top ten for Stevie. That being said, he's still the second best point guard in the league, and one of the most efficient offensive players overall. Alvin Gentry's return to 7 Seconds will only help him this season.
9. Chris Bosh, PF, Raptors
08-09: 22.7 pts, 10.0 rebs, 1.0 blks, .9 stls, 48.7% fg, 81.7% ft.
Also a candidate among the most underrated players in the game. Chris Bosh has been a 20-10 guy two of the last four season, barely missing it in the two he did. The dreds and the fact that he plays in Toronto have led people to underappreciate him. The fact is, he's a dominant player.
8. Pau Gasol, PF/C, Lakers
08-09: 18.9 pts, 9.6 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.0 blks, .6 stls, 56.7% fg, 78.1% ft.
It sounds weird to say it: "Pau Gasol was the best center in the Western Conference last year." The fact is, though, it's true. He was an excellent compliment to Kobe, and his versatility made the Lakers a champion.
7. Dwight Howard, C, Magic
08-09: 20.6 ppg, 13.8 rebs, 2.9 blks, 1.0 stls, 57.2% fg, 59.4% ft.
The best center in the league last year, and a candidate for MVP. If Howard continues to improve (ie improves free throw shooting & learns a post move or two), he will easily be in the top five next season.
6. Tim Duncan, PF/C, Spurs
08-09: 19.3 pts, 10.7 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.7 blks, 50.4% fg, 69.2% ft.
While Timmy's statistics might suffer slightly, I fully expect him to be as dominant as ever since the Spurs as the favorites after having their best offseason since...well, since they got Tim Duncan.
Here's a question about Timmy: why hasn't he been given more crap about his free throw shooting? While he's slightly above average for a Center, he's still a poor free throw shooter compared to the rest of the league, and especially considering his status as a great player. I just think that this is a criticism that has never been equally leveled at Timmy since everyone outside of Dallas likes him so much.
5. Dwyane Wade, SG, Heat
08-09: 30.2 pts, 5.0 rebs, 7.5 ast, 2.2 stls, 1.3 blks, 49.1% fg, 76.5% ft, 3.4 to.
Wade has a fantastic season last season after bouncing back from two injury-riddled seasons. However, Wade and the Heat fizzled at season's end and meekly went out in the first round of the playoffs. That's why I don't have Wade fourth; I feel (and I think he does, too) that Wade is somewhat at a crossroads in his career. Can he put up monster numbers? Yes, but Wade is starting to show that because of age, injuries, and holes in his game (poor 3 point shooter, turnover machine) that he needs a good core around him. I think Wade gets a bit of a free pass because he's won a title, but the truth is that was the worst team and arguably the most dubious title win in the modern/ESPN era. What I see now is a fantastic player who can put up amazing numbers, but can't lead a team out of and has trouble leading them to the second round by himself while becoming a huge injury risk at this point. Is he still top five? Absolutely. But he's not top three.
What does this mean? It means Wade needs to give up on Miami and head to Chicago.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Mavs
08-09: 25.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 2.4 asts, .8 stls, .8 blks, 47.9% fg, 89.0% ft, 35.9% 3pt.
Basically, I've got Dirk at fourth over Wade because he played better in the playoffs last year. Also, I think he's going to have a great season since it's not his kid, and he's on Cloud 9 right now.
3. Kobe Bryant, SG, Lakers
08-09: 26.8 pts, 5.2 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1.5 stls, .5 blks, 46.7% fg, 85.6% ft, 35.1% 3pt, led Lakers to NBA Championship
My only concern with Kobe is his odometer. At some point, even Kobe is going to have to slow down. That being said, it won't really be this year all that much.
2. Chris Paul, PG, Hornets
08-09: 22.8 pts, 11.0 asts, 5.6 rebs, 2.8 stls, 50.3% fg, 86.8% ft, 36.4% 3pt.
CP3 continues to get better and better. I still can't believe how many rebounds he pulls down for his height. The guys is just amazing.
1. Lebron James, SF, Cavaliers
08-09: 28.4 pts, 7.5 rebs, 7.2 asts, 1.7 stls, 1.1 blks, 48.9% fg, 78.0% ft, 34.4% 3pts.
Lebron went into last season needing to improve his shooting (both perimeter and free throw) and his defense. He did both. Let's just put it this way: He has "The Chosen One" tattooed in huge letters across his back, and my only thought when I see that is, "Yeah...that's about right."
I was at a party the other day, and fellow NBA enthusiast and the second biggest Spur's fan I know made a comment about Brandon Roy being one of the top five players in the league.
I laughed, of course.
"Top ten for sure."
I disagreed again, but it got me thinking, who are the Top 20 best players in the league? It turned out to be a lot harder list to compile than I expected. Just how good are young players like Roy, Deron Williams, and Kevin Durant? Was Pau Gasol's first season with the Lakers a bit of a fluke, or is he really the best center in the West? How much does Timmy & Little Stevie Nash have left? Who is the best player on the Nuggets, Melo or Chauncey? And the toughest question of all...what the Hell is up with KG's knee?
Simple ground rules: You're playing a pickup game, you have 30 players standing there, and you pick 20 of them. Contracts don't matter. Age doesn't matter in the sense of "I'd rather have this guy going into his prime than this guy as his star falls"; all that matters is how they are going to play RIGHT NOW. That means, though, that injuries/durability matter, as that affects how they will play and how much they will play this season.
So here it is. Enjoy.
20. Al Jefferson, PF/C, Timberwolves
08-09: 23.1 pts, 10.9 rebs, 1.7 blks, 49.7% fg, 73.8% ft. 3 straight double-double (10+ pts 10+ rebs) seasons.
Remember all the complaints after the Gasol trade (and rightly so) about how ridiculous the trade was? Notice how there wasn't nearly as much complaining when KG was traded? This is the reason. In 5 seasons in the league Jefferson is an established double double guy with an outstanding low post game, including 20-10 the last two. He did tear his ACL 50 games into the season last year, but is expected to bounce back nicely from that. He is the lynchpin of Minnesota's increasingly promising future.
19. Amare Stoudamire, PF/C, Suns
08-09: 21.4 pts, 8.1 rebs, 1.1 blks, 53.9% fg, 83.5% ft.
Five years ago Amare was unquestionably top ten who was a lock to go even higher. Now, though, after a myriad of injuries--specifiically to his eyes and his knees--and growing reputation as a locker room cancern (which affects how your team plays, so does factor in here), I've barely got Amare in the top top 20. If he wants to get higher, his defense needs to improve significantly, in both his overall play and his statistics (he needs to average 2 blocks a game). Another thing about Amare that no one ever talks about: For all of his talent/leaping ability/wingspan, he's never pulled down 10 rebounds in a season. At the end of his career, we're going to end up wondering why he wasn't able to do more.
18. Carmelo Anthony, SF, Nuggets
08-09: 22.8 pts, 6.8 rebs, 3.4 asts, 1.1 stls, 44.3% fg, 79.3% ft, 37.1% 3pt.
You're going to have to accept this fact people: This is what Melo is. He's an All Star small forward who is not a superstar, and will never win a championship as his team's best player. That's it, and there's NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT. Carmelo is the modern Patrick Ewing: a player who came out of college with remarkable pedigree, put up just enough stats that people consider him to be a star, but never won enough to actually earn star status, driving fans crazy because their initial assessment of their talent was so high. It's not Melo's fault, just like it wasn't Ewing's. They are who they are, and it's us who overestimated them.
17. Chauncey Billups, PG, Nuggets
08-09: 17.9 pts, 7.5 asts, 5.0 rebs, 1.2 stls, 42.0% fg, 91.3% ft, 41.0% 3pt. Led Nuggets to surprising Western Conference Finals berth.
I hesitate to put Chauncey this high, because he's reaching that age where point guards show up and have finally lost enough quickness that they just CANNOT compete anymore. However, I think he's still got 1-2 good years left in him (and then probably even 1-2 solid bench/veteran presence years after that), and after his dramatic influence on the Nuggets last season he proved that he is the MVP of the Nuggets, a team that made the Western Conference Finals. That puts him in the Top 20.
16. Caron Butler SF, Wizards
08-09: 20.8 pts, 6.2 rebs, 4.3 asts, 1.6 stls, 45.3% fg, 85.8% ft, 31.0% 3pt.
Want to know who the most underrated player in the NBA is? You're looking at him. Compare his stats with Melo's, who was on a team that included scorers like Chauncey, Nene, and JR Smith. The only other good player on the Wizards? Antawn Jamison. Butler has thrived for years as the underappreciated, jack of all trades sidekick who gets lost in Gilber Arenas shadow. He also gets bonus points for being nicknamed Tough Juice for having a love of Mountain Dew that was so consuming that the NBA told him he had to stop drinking it during games (he repotedly would drink a 2-liter of MD before the game, a 2-liter at halftime) because he was injesting so much caffeine that it was to the point of being a performance enhancer. Now that's doing the Dew.
15. Kevin Durant, SG/SF/PF, Thunder
08-09: 25.3 pts, 6.5 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.3 stls, 47.6% fg, 86.3% ft, 42.2% 3pt.
Second year in the league. SECOND YEAR. He will be at least five spots higher by season's end, and could be up to 10 spots higher. It's really as simple as that.
14. Brandon Roy, PG/SG, Blazers
08-09: 22.6 pts, 5.1 asts, 4.7 rebs, 1.1 stls, 48.0% fg, 82.4% ft, 37.7% 3pt.
Look, I love Brandon Roy just like everyone does. He's one of the nicest guys in the league, he's a clutch player, he committed wholeheartedly to a suffering franchise, and he's only in his third year. That being said...I just can't shake the feeling that Roy had what will be the best season of his career last year. He was finally healthy for the entire season last season, which I don't fully expect to continue, and I don't see Roy as the dominant player on a championship team. I can see Roy as the best player on a dominant team that wins the championship, ala the Pistons, and I can see Roy as the SECOND best player on a championship team, but not the best. I think that we like him so much that we overrate him slightly, and the Blazers performance and his stats support that theory.
13. Paul Pierce, SG, Celtics
08-09: 20.5 pts, 5.6 rebs, 3.6 asts, 1.0 stls, 45.7% fg, 83.0% ft, 39.1% 3pt.
What can you say about Paul Pierce that hasn't been said? He's only got a year or two more before he leaves the Top 20 and goes into tweener range (ala his teammate, Ray Allen), but he's still the go to guy of The Big Three in Boston.
12. Deron Williams, PG, Jazz
08-09: 19.4 pts, 10.7 asts, 2.9 rebs, 1.1 stls, 47.1% fg, 84.9% ft, 31.0% 3pts.
Lost amongst the disappointing Jazz season was another phenominal performance from Deron Williams, who improved his fourth year in a row in spite of fighting through injuries. The only reason he's not more ballyhooed (he's probably second to Tough Juice as the most underrated player) is he had the misfortune of joining the league the same season as CP3. One could make a strong case that he is the second best point guard in the league, and most likely will be at season's end given Little Stevie Nash's age.
11. Kevin Garnett, PF, Celtics
08-09: 15.8 pts, 8.5 rebs, 2.5 asts, 1.2 blks, 1.1 stls, 53.1% fg, 84.1% ft.
The Great Enigma. Where is KG on this list after his knee problems last season? He could be 5 spots higher or off of the Top 20. I'm very concerned that the latter is more realistic; with well over 1000 games in his career, it's quite possible that KG's knees will never allow him to be the player he once was. C'est la vie. I'll put him here for now, but he's in kind of a "there's no middle groung; he'll either come back and be the dominant player he was, or he's done and will fade away" zone.
10. Little Stevie Nash, PG, Suns
08-09: 15.7 pts, 9.7 asts, 3.1 rebs, .7 stls, 50.3% fg, 93.3% ft, 43.9% 3pt.
Almost certainly the last year in the top ten for Stevie. That being said, he's still the second best point guard in the league, and one of the most efficient offensive players overall. Alvin Gentry's return to 7 Seconds will only help him this season.
9. Chris Bosh, PF, Raptors
08-09: 22.7 pts, 10.0 rebs, 1.0 blks, .9 stls, 48.7% fg, 81.7% ft.
Also a candidate among the most underrated players in the game. Chris Bosh has been a 20-10 guy two of the last four season, barely missing it in the two he did. The dreds and the fact that he plays in Toronto have led people to underappreciate him. The fact is, he's a dominant player.
8. Pau Gasol, PF/C, Lakers
08-09: 18.9 pts, 9.6 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.0 blks, .6 stls, 56.7% fg, 78.1% ft.
It sounds weird to say it: "Pau Gasol was the best center in the Western Conference last year." The fact is, though, it's true. He was an excellent compliment to Kobe, and his versatility made the Lakers a champion.
7. Dwight Howard, C, Magic
08-09: 20.6 ppg, 13.8 rebs, 2.9 blks, 1.0 stls, 57.2% fg, 59.4% ft.
The best center in the league last year, and a candidate for MVP. If Howard continues to improve (ie improves free throw shooting & learns a post move or two), he will easily be in the top five next season.
6. Tim Duncan, PF/C, Spurs
08-09: 19.3 pts, 10.7 rebs, 3.5 asts, 1.7 blks, 50.4% fg, 69.2% ft.
While Timmy's statistics might suffer slightly, I fully expect him to be as dominant as ever since the Spurs as the favorites after having their best offseason since...well, since they got Tim Duncan.
Here's a question about Timmy: why hasn't he been given more crap about his free throw shooting? While he's slightly above average for a Center, he's still a poor free throw shooter compared to the rest of the league, and especially considering his status as a great player. I just think that this is a criticism that has never been equally leveled at Timmy since everyone outside of Dallas likes him so much.
5. Dwyane Wade, SG, Heat
08-09: 30.2 pts, 5.0 rebs, 7.5 ast, 2.2 stls, 1.3 blks, 49.1% fg, 76.5% ft, 3.4 to.
Wade has a fantastic season last season after bouncing back from two injury-riddled seasons. However, Wade and the Heat fizzled at season's end and meekly went out in the first round of the playoffs. That's why I don't have Wade fourth; I feel (and I think he does, too) that Wade is somewhat at a crossroads in his career. Can he put up monster numbers? Yes, but Wade is starting to show that because of age, injuries, and holes in his game (poor 3 point shooter, turnover machine) that he needs a good core around him. I think Wade gets a bit of a free pass because he's won a title, but the truth is that was the worst team and arguably the most dubious title win in the modern/ESPN era. What I see now is a fantastic player who can put up amazing numbers, but can't lead a team out of and has trouble leading them to the second round by himself while becoming a huge injury risk at this point. Is he still top five? Absolutely. But he's not top three.
What does this mean? It means Wade needs to give up on Miami and head to Chicago.
4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Mavs
08-09: 25.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 2.4 asts, .8 stls, .8 blks, 47.9% fg, 89.0% ft, 35.9% 3pt.
Basically, I've got Dirk at fourth over Wade because he played better in the playoffs last year. Also, I think he's going to have a great season since it's not his kid, and he's on Cloud 9 right now.
3. Kobe Bryant, SG, Lakers
08-09: 26.8 pts, 5.2 rebs, 4.9 asts, 1.5 stls, .5 blks, 46.7% fg, 85.6% ft, 35.1% 3pt, led Lakers to NBA Championship
My only concern with Kobe is his odometer. At some point, even Kobe is going to have to slow down. That being said, it won't really be this year all that much.
2. Chris Paul, PG, Hornets
08-09: 22.8 pts, 11.0 asts, 5.6 rebs, 2.8 stls, 50.3% fg, 86.8% ft, 36.4% 3pt.
CP3 continues to get better and better. I still can't believe how many rebounds he pulls down for his height. The guys is just amazing.
1. Lebron James, SF, Cavaliers
08-09: 28.4 pts, 7.5 rebs, 7.2 asts, 1.7 stls, 1.1 blks, 48.9% fg, 78.0% ft, 34.4% 3pts.
Lebron went into last season needing to improve his shooting (both perimeter and free throw) and his defense. He did both. Let's just put it this way: He has "The Chosen One" tattooed in huge letters across his back, and my only thought when I see that is, "Yeah...that's about right."
Labels: NBA
posted by Michael Pondrom at 12:37 PM
1 Comments:
Good teams win the games they are supposed to. Great teams slaughter the teams they are supposed to.
Roy is a good player. I haven't seen him just take over a game and slaughter his opponent, though.
Interestingly enough, most of the players that do slaughter their opponents aren't very likeable off the court.
I miss Gary Payton and his ability to turn off his competitiveness after the game and, hi-five and kid with opponents after being absolutely ruthless on the court. How's that for a rambling thought.
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