2009 NBA PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
What an exciting playoffs we're in for! Lots of drama in the first coupla rounds, little drama in the latter rounds, and a what-could-be-finer matchup in the Finals between...well, I'm getting ahead of myself.
We'll knock out the West quickly, since I've already addressed it when I WAS EXACTLY RIGHT IN PREDICTING HOW THE SEASON WOULD END AND WHAT THE PLAYOFF MATCHUPS WOULD BE on Tuesday. Not to brag, though. :-)
WESTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 1
Lakers (1) over Jazz (8) in 5
The Jazz manage to win one at home, as Utah is disappointed in the offseason when Carlos Boozer decides to stay.
Nuggets (2) over Hornets (7) in 7
This is a really interesting series, as I think it is the best possible matchup for the Hornets, and one of the worst for the Nuggets. The Nuggets are definitely the better team this year. That being said, NO has the best player in the series, and both the Nuggets abysmal past playoff performances and tendency to go crazy as a team work against it. Honestly, I could easily see NO winning this series. I'm going with Denver for a coupla reasons: 1) Chauncey usually waits til later in the playoffs to shoot his team out of it, 2) Denver does have the home court, which does mean something especially when you play there four times in two weeks, and 3) the just isn't New Orleans' year. It's the Yang to last year's Yin. It will be interesting though.
Mavs (6) over Spurs (3) in 6
There are so many reasons to go with the Mavs in this series that my only real concern is that this is the "it's so obvious of an upset that everyone picks it and it doesn't go through." The Mavs have built their team around beating the Spurs. The Mavs are peaking as the season ends, whereas the Spurs are dropping like a stone. The Mavs have gotten slightly healthier as the wisely rested Josh Howard before the last two weeks of the regular season, whereas Manu is out for the season and Timmy can't walk without limping. This is one of the few series where you can actually say that the Mavs have a younger and more athletic bench. The Mavs win the battle of Fading Teams from the 90's.
Blazers (4) over Rockets (5) in 6
Poor Houston. I really could say more, but that just about covers it. If they don't take this as a sign that--if for no other reason than karma--they must get rid of TMac this summer, then they will never get it.
WESTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 2
Lakers (1) over Blazers (4) in 6
The Lakers win a wildly entertaining series that is never really in doubt, but shows Portland's enormous potential. Portland gets blown out in one game, but manages to keep the rest of the series close and wins one in LA. Portland leaves feeling good about themselves.
Nuggets (2) over Mavs (6) in 7
Can you tell I'm not a fan of this Nuggets team? Normally I would be chomping at the bit to predict the Nuggets folding under the pressure in Round 2. The problem, though, is that the Nugz match up best against the Mavs this season. Sometimes a team just has another team's number, and the Nuggets have that with the Mavs this year. It would take a colossal mental collapse for the Nuggets to lose this--and don't get me wrong, that is not out of the question--but I don't think it happens. The Mavs leave feeling good about themselves, and hopefully can use this surprisingly good playoff run to find someone dumb enough to take Josh Howard.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Lakers (1) over Nuggets (2) in 6
I've got to be honest here: the only reason I'm going 6 games is I don't think the NBA will allow any less than 6 games to be played. The Lakers will MURDER the Nuggets, or whoever else ends up here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 1
Cavs (1) over Pistons (8) in 5
I love all the "don't sleep on the Pistons!" talk by the media, too. You've got to be kidding me. What has this team done but disappoint since they won their one title? How has this year been any different? And you think they're going to surprise Lebron? Riiiiight.
Celtics (2) over Bulls (7) in 7
This is a really good Bulls team that was much better in the second half after they made an outstanding trade with the Kings. With the news that KG will be out for the playoffs, I can honestly easily see this Bulls team beating the Celts. I think this goes one of two ways: The Bulls win in 5, or the Celtics win in 7, and there's no middle ground. I think the Celtics man up, play with pride, and manage to pull this out.
Magic (3) over Sixers (6) in 6
I do like the Sixers--think of them as D'Antoni's Suns Lite--but not enough to pick them over a good, but not great, Magic team.
Heat (5) over Hawks (4) in 6
Similar to Mavs-Spurs, this is another one where I'm nervous about "everyone will pick this upset so it won't happen" potential. This one is even more risky with that, because the Hawks are a better team than Miami. That being said, Dwayne Wade is an amazing playoff performer and by far the best player in the series, and if you don't think he's going to be getting almost as many calls as he got against the Mavs in The Finals so the NBA can get a Wade/Lebron matchup in Round 2, well, then you just don't understand the mind of Mr. David Stern.
EASTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 2
Cavs (1) over Heat (5) in 6
Could easily happen in 5, but Lebron likes DWade too much to embarrass him like that. As good as Wade is, he's no Lebron, and the Cavs are a MUCH better team.
Magic (3) over Celtics (2) in 6
The Magic have absolutely and totally lucked out here. I couldn't WAIT to pick against them in the second round; to be honest, I would have probably picked Chicago over them in the first round if they had played each other. Luckily for them, they got the team least suited to win a playoff series in the first round. Then they get a Celtics team that is not only without their best player, but exhausted after a tough first round series. And you know what? I'm STILL thinking of taking the Celtics. I think if it goes 7, the C's win it, but I think they just have too little left in the tank to pull it out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Cavs (1) over Magic (2) in 6
Similar to the Western Conference Finals, the only reason I'm not going 5 is because I think the NBA won't let that happen. And don't be surprised if Lebron decides "F it" and wins it in 5 playing 5 on 8.
NBA FINALS
Cavs (1) over Lakers (1) in 6
Look people. I told you before. This is the Year of Lebron--the first of many. The Lakers have slightly more talent, but the Cavs have all of the intangibles--team that genuinely likes each other, team that is playing better now, adoring city 100% behind them--and, as good as Kobe is, the Cavs have the best player in the series. Lebron wins this one for his hometown, to end their suffering...so he can leave them happy after next year.
There is no stopping the King when he's got a plan.
Enjoy what is going to be a FANTASTIC playoffs as the Next Generation fully takes over.
The NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!!!
We'll knock out the West quickly, since I've already addressed it when I WAS EXACTLY RIGHT IN PREDICTING HOW THE SEASON WOULD END AND WHAT THE PLAYOFF MATCHUPS WOULD BE on Tuesday. Not to brag, though. :-)
WESTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 1
Lakers (1) over Jazz (8) in 5
The Jazz manage to win one at home, as Utah is disappointed in the offseason when Carlos Boozer decides to stay.
Nuggets (2) over Hornets (7) in 7
This is a really interesting series, as I think it is the best possible matchup for the Hornets, and one of the worst for the Nuggets. The Nuggets are definitely the better team this year. That being said, NO has the best player in the series, and both the Nuggets abysmal past playoff performances and tendency to go crazy as a team work against it. Honestly, I could easily see NO winning this series. I'm going with Denver for a coupla reasons: 1) Chauncey usually waits til later in the playoffs to shoot his team out of it, 2) Denver does have the home court, which does mean something especially when you play there four times in two weeks, and 3) the just isn't New Orleans' year. It's the Yang to last year's Yin. It will be interesting though.
Mavs (6) over Spurs (3) in 6
There are so many reasons to go with the Mavs in this series that my only real concern is that this is the "it's so obvious of an upset that everyone picks it and it doesn't go through." The Mavs have built their team around beating the Spurs. The Mavs are peaking as the season ends, whereas the Spurs are dropping like a stone. The Mavs have gotten slightly healthier as the wisely rested Josh Howard before the last two weeks of the regular season, whereas Manu is out for the season and Timmy can't walk without limping. This is one of the few series where you can actually say that the Mavs have a younger and more athletic bench. The Mavs win the battle of Fading Teams from the 90's.
Blazers (4) over Rockets (5) in 6
Poor Houston. I really could say more, but that just about covers it. If they don't take this as a sign that--if for no other reason than karma--they must get rid of TMac this summer, then they will never get it.
WESTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 2
Lakers (1) over Blazers (4) in 6
The Lakers win a wildly entertaining series that is never really in doubt, but shows Portland's enormous potential. Portland gets blown out in one game, but manages to keep the rest of the series close and wins one in LA. Portland leaves feeling good about themselves.
Nuggets (2) over Mavs (6) in 7
Can you tell I'm not a fan of this Nuggets team? Normally I would be chomping at the bit to predict the Nuggets folding under the pressure in Round 2. The problem, though, is that the Nugz match up best against the Mavs this season. Sometimes a team just has another team's number, and the Nuggets have that with the Mavs this year. It would take a colossal mental collapse for the Nuggets to lose this--and don't get me wrong, that is not out of the question--but I don't think it happens. The Mavs leave feeling good about themselves, and hopefully can use this surprisingly good playoff run to find someone dumb enough to take Josh Howard.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Lakers (1) over Nuggets (2) in 6
I've got to be honest here: the only reason I'm going 6 games is I don't think the NBA will allow any less than 6 games to be played. The Lakers will MURDER the Nuggets, or whoever else ends up here.
EASTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 1
Cavs (1) over Pistons (8) in 5
I love all the "don't sleep on the Pistons!" talk by the media, too. You've got to be kidding me. What has this team done but disappoint since they won their one title? How has this year been any different? And you think they're going to surprise Lebron? Riiiiight.
Celtics (2) over Bulls (7) in 7
This is a really good Bulls team that was much better in the second half after they made an outstanding trade with the Kings. With the news that KG will be out for the playoffs, I can honestly easily see this Bulls team beating the Celts. I think this goes one of two ways: The Bulls win in 5, or the Celtics win in 7, and there's no middle ground. I think the Celtics man up, play with pride, and manage to pull this out.
Magic (3) over Sixers (6) in 6
I do like the Sixers--think of them as D'Antoni's Suns Lite--but not enough to pick them over a good, but not great, Magic team.
Heat (5) over Hawks (4) in 6
Similar to Mavs-Spurs, this is another one where I'm nervous about "everyone will pick this upset so it won't happen" potential. This one is even more risky with that, because the Hawks are a better team than Miami. That being said, Dwayne Wade is an amazing playoff performer and by far the best player in the series, and if you don't think he's going to be getting almost as many calls as he got against the Mavs in The Finals so the NBA can get a Wade/Lebron matchup in Round 2, well, then you just don't understand the mind of Mr. David Stern.
EASTERN CONFERENCE, ROUND 2
Cavs (1) over Heat (5) in 6
Could easily happen in 5, but Lebron likes DWade too much to embarrass him like that. As good as Wade is, he's no Lebron, and the Cavs are a MUCH better team.
Magic (3) over Celtics (2) in 6
The Magic have absolutely and totally lucked out here. I couldn't WAIT to pick against them in the second round; to be honest, I would have probably picked Chicago over them in the first round if they had played each other. Luckily for them, they got the team least suited to win a playoff series in the first round. Then they get a Celtics team that is not only without their best player, but exhausted after a tough first round series. And you know what? I'm STILL thinking of taking the Celtics. I think if it goes 7, the C's win it, but I think they just have too little left in the tank to pull it out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Cavs (1) over Magic (2) in 6
Similar to the Western Conference Finals, the only reason I'm not going 5 is because I think the NBA won't let that happen. And don't be surprised if Lebron decides "F it" and wins it in 5 playing 5 on 8.
NBA FINALS
Cavs (1) over Lakers (1) in 6
Look people. I told you before. This is the Year of Lebron--the first of many. The Lakers have slightly more talent, but the Cavs have all of the intangibles--team that genuinely likes each other, team that is playing better now, adoring city 100% behind them--and, as good as Kobe is, the Cavs have the best player in the series. Lebron wins this one for his hometown, to end their suffering...so he can leave them happy after next year.
There is no stopping the King when he's got a plan.
Enjoy what is going to be a FANTASTIC playoffs as the Next Generation fully takes over.
The NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!!!
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posted by Michael Pondrom at 2:53 PM
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