NBA Preview 2008: Western Conference

Here we go again...

Last five years Eastern Conference bad.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder has a bright future. Kevin Durant is going to be a star; Jeff Green will be an All Star; I'm not as high on Russell Westbrook as some, but he's going to be a very good point guard for years to come. That being said...they're still going to take their lumps this year. However, this is a team at least moving in the right direction...

14. Sacramento Kings
...whereas the Kings, most certainly, are not. This team is really bad and could easily end up in last place, especially if Kevin Martin misses any time. I'm laughing in advance at anyone who drafts Brad Miller this year, as I expect him to age in dog years at this point.

13. Memphis Grizzlies
Another bad young team who is at least moving in the right direction. I love what I'm hearing from Mike Conley, who I still think will be an All Star at some point in his career. I'm not as high on Rudy Gay as some, but this is definitely his team at this point. And as for O.J. Mayo...I mean, come on, you have to admit the guy is facinating. He could be a future All Star...he could be a complete and total bust...and either way, I fully expect to see him in a courtroom wearing a huge fur coat trying to convince a judge not to send him to prison for the coke and hookers police found in his hotel room (see Irvin, Michael). It's going to be entertaining, I promise you that much.

It's going to get worse before it gets better...

12. Golden State Warriors
I would bet damn near everything I owned that Don Nelson will not finish the season as head coach. I'm shocked he didn't use the club fining Monta Ellis as an excuse to leave then. It's all about to fall horribly apart for Golden State, trust me on this.

11. LA Clippers
I'm really sorry after everything that's happened to the Clips lately...but doesn't this feel like a season that is just headed towards disaster? There's the promise from signing The Baron...and then David Falk fucks over the Clippers and makes Elton Brand leave. Then there's the ugly divorce with Elgin Baylor. Now you've got a team where your three best players--The Baron, Marcus Camby, and Chris Kaman--are all injury prone yet coming off injury free years (once again, they're due), and they play two positions. Throw in you have arguably the worst starting two guard in the league (Mobley), and your only three quality bench players are the most overrated rookie from the last draft (Eric Gordon), the reigning craziest player in the league (Ricky Davis), and the laziest player in the league (Tiim Thomas). Let's just say I don't see this ending well.

10. Denver Nuggets
I'm basing this on the lineup they have now...and I'm about 95% sure they deal Iverson at the trade deadline for draft picks. So there is plenty of potential for this team to move, and it ain't up (sorry Eric). Also...does anyone see Melo as the kind of player you want to rebuild around, nurturing young high draft picks on how to win the NBA? Yeah...I don't either.

The frisky young teams.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Okay, so is there about a 90% chance that we're going to look back in a year and laugh at me for picking the Wolves this high? Unquestionably. But I've got a feeling about this team this year...I think they can make some noise. Al Jefferson should be an All Star this year. They have a great shooter/savvy veteran in Mike Miller. Randy Foye looks like he's starting to put it together a little. Rashad McCants continues to recover from knee surgery and is looking good. They actually have good depth (Craig Smith, Kevin Love, Ryan Gomes) at forward. And Corey Brewer has to get better at some point, right? I mean he can't really be as bad as he's looked, can he?

I know I'm going to probably regret this. But I'm going with my gut, and putting the Wolves here anyway.

8. Portland Trailblazers
I think this season decided Portland's future...and there's a lot more danger here than people realize. As you know, I believe in momentum--strongly. I feel that momentum has been building, and it's time for this team to take a step, make the playoffs, play well, inspire their fans, and delight the entire NBA.

The thing I worry about? Injuries.

Brandon Roy is injury prone. Make no mistake, Greg Oden is injury prone. They DESPERATELY need both of those players to play at least 72 games this season.

I think if they stay healthy, the Blazers take that step, make the playoffs, play well there, and go forward to a bright future. But if they have a major injury, I think they don't make the playoffs, and momentum shifts on them: injuries keep ocurring in the future, fans get exasperated waiting for this team to gel, and it falls apart.

I know this sounds weird, but trust me, that's how it works. There's no rhyme, no reason, you can just feel it coming. I hope they do well this season, because this is a fun group of likeable guys in a city that loves basketball. Because if they don't make the playoffs, this team will end up being done.

TIMEOUT!!!!

Per Bo's comment in yesterday's post...


Back to it.

The Changing of The Guard.

7. Phoenix Suns
In the end, I feel like the team that lost easily to the Spurs in five games last year is who the Suns are. I think this is the year Little Stevie Nash starts to slip, and he doesn't have much room to slip. I think Barbosa's days of being the quickest guy on the court every night are done; he doesn't recover from his subpar year last year. I think Diaw continues to be a pussy Frenchman and doesn't get any better. I think Raja Bell is just about completely done. I think Shaw is even more done this year than he was last year.

There are some things I like about this team. I loved the signing of Matt Barnes, who is not only a good player in his own right, but having him will mean Grant Hill plays less minutes, which will make Grant Hill a better player. While I do think Robin Lopez has become overrated, he's still a good backup center. And I do think that Amare is going to have the monster year that John Holinger thinks he's going to have.

In the end, though, the minus outweigh the pluses, even before you factor this in: this franchise will rue the day they sent Mike D'Antoni away.

6. San Antonio Spurs
Originally, I had this team fourth. But as time went on, I just couldn't get past this one thought:

"How in the Hell is the team going to win games without Manu Ginobli?"

Missing Ginobli for 25 games is HUGE. People forget that he was the Spur's MVP in the regular season last season. That's right; it wasn't Timmy, it was Manu, and it wasn't even close. He was spectacular last season.

This year, the Spurs have added no one, their all a year older, and I think that TP slips just a little bit as the Hollywood lifestyle he's living with his wife catches up with him a little bit.

Eventually, even immortals end up dying.

5. Your Dallas Mavericks!
Could this be wishful thinking from the homer in me? Absolutely. But hear me out, after I spent most of the offseason thinking that the Mavs might not even make the playoffs:

* Changing from Avery Johnson to Rick Carlisle will mean better play just on the basis of effort alone from the players. And seriously, can you even blame them? After three years of listening to Avery Johnson scream at you about anything and everything in that annoying voice, wouldn't you get sick of hearing that? I always though Avery was overrated as a coach due to his early success anyway, and seriously, how hard is it to look better than Don Nelson after he's checked out on a franchise? Watch the Warriors this season and you'll see. On the contrary, I've always thought Rick Carlisle was a good coach at each of his previous stops. Big boost for the Mavs, especially this year.
* I think Josh Howard has a good regular season, as he's been through so much shit (as he well should have been) in the offseason that he has a, "Finally, I can just go out and play ball!" kind of season. That being said, if a team offers someone 75% of his value at the trade deadline, I JUMP at that move.
* Would I rather have Devin Harris and two first round picks than Jason Kidd? Yes, I would. However, I do think Jason Kidd isn't as done as everyone is saying, and will play better this season than he did last.
* I think Brandon Bass has a great season, and establishes himself as a 6th Man of the Year candidate. I think he puts up almost a double double (I'm thinking at least 12 and 9ish), and I think the way he attacks the rim and tries to dunk on people is EXACTLY what this team needs.
* I'm glad that Rick Carlisle is giving Antoine Wright some good run in the preseason, as I think he's a decent player who can play good minutes. And while I'm far from convinced that what he's done in preseason will translate in any way, shape, or form to the regular season, even I must admit that Gerald Green has looked good in the preseason.
* Good God, did I just list Antoine Wright and Gerald Green as reasons the Mavs will have a better season? Hold on a minute, I've started sobbing...

Okay, I'm back. The biggest reason, though, is that the West is not as competitive as it has been in years past, and I feel like the Mavs have slipped less than the other teams. This team will be better than most people expect, though make no mistake: the championship window has closed for this team.

The Enigma.

4. Houston Rockets
Please. Like you didn't think a team that has Ron Ron and the two most frequently injured stars in the league qualifies as an enigma? This team could finish third, or could finish eighth.

Quickly before I get to my radical idea for the Rockets: I love the talent on this team, and love the bench. I still don't like the point guards, still worry about injuries to Yao and TMac as you can see their pictures in the dictionary next to the phrase "It's not if, it's when", and I worry about Ron Ron being a crazy asshole like he is. Nothing earthshattering for this team. So here's my radical idea:

Why don't the Rockets sit Yao for the first 20 games this season?

Look, the Rockets proved last season that they can win in the regular season without him. Everyone believes that part of the reason Yao is so oft-injured is the ridiculous schedule his Masters in China keep him on, and given the fact that he came back too early from his broken foot to play in the Olympics this summer, this season is no different. Sure, everyone's saying he'll be fine, but you know he won't be.

So why not tell him, "Look man, why don't you get some rest? Sit back, relax, take the first 20 games off, make sure you're fully healed. We'll be waiting for you when you get back."

There's only one real downside: the need to integrate a dynamic player like Ron Ron into this team. But look at it this way: Yao starts on game 20. The Rockets take, say, 40 games to really gel as a team and get comfortable with playing with each other. The kick it off around game 60-65, and ride that momentum into the playoffs, where they will have homecourt because they easily have enough talent to get fourth in the NBA without Yao for 20 games.

Do it Rockets. You need to. Because if you think you're going to get Yao for the entire regular season and playoffs, well, let's just say I won't be the one who will be surprised.

The Dark Horse Contender.

3. Utah Jazz
I like this Jazz team. They're a likable team, and on paper they look just as good as the Hornets and Lakers. However...there's something missing on this team. There's something that's just not there. This team is the perfect example of stats versus the real world. John Hollinger, ESPN's statistician, LOVES this team. Predicted them to win the West. However, every no one else did. Almost everyone had them in the top three, cetainly the top four...but no one had them as number 1.

It's why you can't just use stats to judge the real world. This team looks fantastic, and has played very well...but in the end, I think they fall just short.

The True Contenders.

2. New Orleans Hornets
I think they Hornets get second in the regular season, but end up winning the West and playing in the Finals. This is a fantastic team that is even built to withstand the inevitable Da Peja injuries (Posey backs him up now, and don't forget the underrated Julian Wright). Are there holes? Sure. They'll miss Jainero Pargo. It would be nice to have a better backup PF/C. But that's about it, and with the addition of Posey, who as we know is a longtime fav of mine, this team has what it takes to make it to the Finals.

1. LA Lakers
So why do I have the Lakers in first and not in the Finals? First of all, because I think the Lakers will put an inordinate amount of emphasis on winning the regular season. I also think that once their in the playoffs, there are several shortcomings that will show up. Do you see Lamar Odom suddenly becoming a clutch playoff performer when he's already unhappy about his role/contract with the team? Yeah, me neither. Do you see Pau suddenly become a physical clutch performer in the playoffs? No way. Do you see Andrew Bynum being a force his first time to play a full season and his first time to play in the playoffs after coming back from major knee surgery? Not a chance. Do I think Kobe's schizophrenia will come back to haunt them when in the playoffs as he chases so desperately for his own title? God, please let that be the case.

In the end, I think Kobe wants it too bad, and I don't think he'll ever win a championship on a team that he's the premier player. Of course, that could be wishful thinking on my part.

So there you go everyone. And remember, the NBA...it's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNTASTIC!!!!!!!!