2008 Western Conference & NBA Finals Predictions

Greatest regular season in sports history, unbelievable future for this conference, blah blah blah. None of that matters now. Let's hop to it:
ROUND I

LA Lakers (1) v Denver Nuggets (8)
Prediction: LA, 4-1
Surely AI can manage to win 1 game against the Lakers again, right?

The real question here is what do you do with Denver if they are almost swept in the first round--again. You have to trade Melo, right? I mean, this team obviously is never going to compete for a championship, and at this point I think it is becoming more and more obvious that (what I said many years ago) Melo is never going to be a #1 guy for a championship team. So if you're Denver...after another off-court fuck up by Melo...you've got to deal him, right? Interesting off season for them.

New Orleans Hornets (2) v Dallas Mavericks (7)
Prediction: Dallas, 4-3
This series is driving me crazy. I'm so conflicted. Time for the fav:

REASONS TO PICK DALLAS

* The only player on the Hornets with playoff experience is Da Peja, whose leg is permanently stained yellow from peeing on himself in the playoffs.
* CP3 is exhausted, and if you look at his numbers in April, it's pretty obvious he's carried the team for too long.
* The words "home court advantage" and "New Orleans" don't strike fear into me like Golden State did.
* Since the Kidd trade, Dirk has been playing the best basketball of his career.
* Kidd is finally comfortable here, and I think he's got one or two moments of, "I know I'm getting to the point where I'm almost washed up, but I can still summon the old magic against the new young guy and emerge as the victor!" left in him.
* Howard isn't out of his slump, but isn't completely sucking anymore, so that's good.

REASONS TO PICK NEW ORLEANS

* EVERYONE is picking the Mavs to upset the Hornets. Whenever all the pundits are going one way in an upset, go the other.
* CP3 just had the greatest season a point guard ever had. Ever.
* Not only is David West one of the most underrated players in the league, but he is a GREAT matchup agains Dirk. He's quick, he's long, and can hang with him.
* Speaking of Dirk, at best his ankle will be 85%.
* In spite of all their doubters, over and over again all season, they've proved they are for real, as proof by finishing with the second seed.

I'm not sure if I'm going with the Mavs because I want them to win, or if its because I honestly think they'll win. The fact that everyone is picking them terrifies me. However, in the end, two things made me decide on them:

1) The Mavs win Game 7's...especially in the first round. Ask Portland and Houston. If the Mavs make it to Game 7, they take it--and usually convincingly so. It's getting there that is the hard part.
2) The most important reason is I think Byron Scott lost this series when he played his starters in the final game of the season against the Mavs. As I mentioned earlier, CP3 is obviously gassed. They had the 2 seed locked up, so he had one of two choices: give his starters some valuable and much needed rest, and say to his team/the world, "We're not afraid of the Mavs; bring em on", or play the game and get the easiest first round matchup (Denver) if they win, but risk wearing your starters down more and convincing the Mavs "We can beat these guys" if you lose. When, not only did they lose, but they lost pretty soundly, and they lost in a game that Dirk sucked. I think that decision will really come back to haunt them.

Beware the Hornets next year, though...

San Anotnio Spurs (3) v Phoenix Suns (6)
Prediction: Suns in 6
There are lots of reasons I could espouse to you that the Spurs won't win, that are all legit, intelligent, and noteworthy. However, I can also sum it up fairly quickly:

It's an even year.

Ergo, Suns win in one of the toughest first round matchups ever.

Houston Rockets (4) v Utah Jazz (5)
Prediction: Jazz in 5
I know Utah is the 4 seed, but how is that the case if the Rockets get home court because they have the better record? Still drives me crazy. Anyway...I'm sorry, but while it was impressive, the Rockets 22 win streak was the fakest 22 game win streak ever, and they have been barely above a .500 ball club. With Skip To My Lou out for the first two games, the Jazz take one, and then close the Rockets out at home, where the Jazz are borderline unbeatable.

ROUND 2

LA Lakers (1) v Utah Jazz (4)
Prediction: Lakers in 6
The Lakers are just a bad matchup against the Jazz. On paper, the Jazz should win. Boozer can check Gasol. AK-47, the best defender in the NBA, can slow down Kobe. Williams goes nuts, Okur goes nuts, benches are even, Jazz win.

Unfotunately, that's not the way it is. Boozer can check Gasol. But AK-47 is a shadow of his former self, and can't stop Kobe. One of the Jazz's best strengths, bringing Kyle Korver off the bench, can't happen because he can't guard Kobe or Odom. The Jazz just never seem to play well against the Lakers; they are one of the few teams who can boast a win in Utah.

Lakers prevail.

Dallas Mavericks (7) v Phoenix Suns (6)
Prediction: Suns in 6
If Dirk was 100% and this were the Spurs, I would pick the Mavs. However, Dirk is not 100%, and this is not the Spurs. Amare goes nuts, and the Suns win.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

LA Lakers (1) v Phoenix Suns (6)
Prediction: Lakers in 7
God I want to pick the Suns. However, I think Kobe pulls a DWade and shoots 25 free throws a game, and the Lakers pull it out.

In fairness, the Lakers match up well against the Suns. They can throw Fischer & Farmer at Little Stevie Nash and wear him down. Kobe v Raja is still a win for Kobe. And the Odom-Gasol triumverate can break even with Shaq-Amare.

The only chance the Suns have is if Boris Diaw turns back the clock two years. If he does that, they win. If he doesn't, the Lakers win. Simple as that.

NBA FINALS

Boston Celtics (1) v LA Lakers (1)
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Not only have the Celtics proved themselves by winning an amazing 25 games against the West, but I think they match up great against the Lakers. Allen/Allen/Pierce do a decent job against Kobe, KG kicks the shit out of Gasol, Pierce/Posey are fine against Odom, Perkins is better than Turiaf, and Rondo/Cassell tops Fisher/Farmer. Any strength the Lakers have the Celtics have an answer to, and then some.

Finally, I think this is one of the few matchups where the NBA doesn't call in the Laker's favor. I think Stern would love to see KG win one, and would be happy with a title in either market, so Kobe doesn't get his usual favoritism.

Once again, Boston wins.