Friday, July 06, 2007

NBA Offseason Moves

Okay here's how it's going to be: we're going to pretend the 2007 Playoffs never happened. In fact, with all the tanking, we're going to just pretend the 2007 season never happened. No offseason awards. No thoughts on the end of the playoffs. No ripping the Spurs for finally showing their true colors. No ripping David Stern for turning the corner and going from "bold, shrewd marketing genius who does whatever it takes to keep his league successful" to "megalomaniacal, selfish, pompous ass whose absolute power has corrupted him absolutely". Actually, the latter will probably get written someday, but not now! Now we're focusing on the future!

So far we've had the biggest draft since 2003, and an interesting offseason where there's already been plenty of trade talk and free agent movement. Rather than do a draft review, I'm going to just discuss the major happenings of the offseason so far.

Greg Oden selected by Portland/Kevin Durant selected by Seattle: There's been a ton of "which do you take first" talk with these two. I do think Kevin Durant will be the better player; the kid is just incredible. There's no other way to describe him. However, I do see Portland's way of thinking about having a dominant center--and while I think LaMarcus Aldridge can grow into a nice PF, "dominant" and "center" he is not. Say what you will about the changing NBA, look at who has won all the titles since a certain someone retired in 1998: Shaq, Tim Duncan, and Ben Wallace. Every single team that has one a title since Jordan's retirement has had an All Star Center.

Yes, they may have passed on the next Jordon. But Houston passed on Jordon, too, and I don't hear many people ripping them for drafting Hakeem Olajuwon. I think that's what happened here.

Portland then immediately trades Zach Randolph to Knicks for Channing Frye and Steve Francis: Okay, this is a guy whose high school coach is quoted as saying he checks the Obits every day to see if he's dead, and breathes a sigh of relief every time he doesn't see him there. Is he a dominant NBA player? Yes. Is he a selfish team cancer who embodies the "Jailblazers" image in Portland that you are desperately trying to get rid of? Yes. Does he have a ridiculously restrictive contract that's going to kill your team for years? Yes. If you can unload him for a young SF who immediately gives you a talented and imposing front line of Greg Oden, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Channing Frye--the shortest of who is 6'10"--don't you do so, even if you are only getting back about $.60 on the $1 when comparing the talent level? Now you've got a dynamic young front line, who are being led by the charismatic, hard-working, and likeable Rookie of the Year from last season. This is the very definition of addition by subtraction.

On the other hand, your team is already screwed with all of the bad contracts you've added over the years. You have very little talent, and very little room under the salary cap to make any maneuvers. You have a chance to give up one of your worst contracts and a team cancer that you almost bought out last year (Steve Francis), while adding one of the top 30 talents in the NBA. Sure, he'll probably get himself killed in New York in 3 or 4 years, but you can still get 3 or 4 good years out of him. And they're not even insisting on a draft pick!

In other words, this is a good trade for both teams.

Al Horford at #3 and Acie Law at #11 to the Hawks: Please see the KG article below. Now you tell me: would you rather have these two players, or Amare Stoudamire?

I fucking hate the Hawks. They are a blight on the NBA, and need to be contracted.

Grizzlies take Mike Conley at #4: I think Memphis has actually planned this whole thing out. This is a team who made the playoffs 3 years in a row, but never won a game. They were the perpetual "mediocre to good team who is stuck in a rut"; they'd never get bad enough to add some dynamic players, weren't good enough to make any real noise.

And then their best player breaks his foot the season before one of the most talented drafts ever.

Seriously, does anyone think Pau Gasol was worth 30 games? They won 49 games last year, and 22 this year. That's a 27 game swing! And the only difference was they lost Gasol for 23 games! The numbers just don't add up, people.

I think Jerry West is smart enough that when that happened, he said, "Perfect. We've lost our best player, so now we have an excuse to have a horrible season. We're going to tank, add a fantastic player, and then turn it around. We're going to give my younger players--Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick--the chance to go out, learn, and prove if they've got anything. Then we'll take whatever stud we get in the draft and take it to the next level in the next 2-3 years, which are still in Gasol's prime."

It's a great plan when you think of it.

I love Mike Conley--I think he's the third best player in the draft, and will eventually be one of the best point guards in the NBA. If Rudy Gay can just get 75% of his potential, then this is going to be a fantastic team in 2 to 3 years.

Boston trades Jeff Green to Sonics for Ray Allen and Glen "Big Baby" Davis: Yet another great trade for both teams. First, let's get one thing straight: as long as Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers are running the Celtics, you are not competing for a championship. I'm sorry. It's not going to happen. What you're competing for is "entertaining team that can make it to the second round of the playoffs." And that's what you have here. Jeff Green or Corey Brewer (we'll discuss Yi in a moment) are both nice, talented players who will have good NBA careers. I think Brewer will even make a coupla of All Star games, and Green might make one or two if he's lucky. But these are not franchise players, and they were the best left. Combine that with Paul Pierce's demands, and this is a good trade. A core of PP, Ray Allen, and Al Jefferson can get you into the playoffs in the East easily. If Tony Allen, Gerald Green, and/or Rajon Rondo give them anything at all, then they can make the second round.

A lot has been made of Ray Allen's age; Simmons brought up the fact that only one shooting guard has put up good stats after 35, and that was Reggie Miller. My answer to that is: who is the closest player to Reggie Miller in the NBA? I.E., who is a shooting guard who is an outstanding pure shooter, has an effortless stroke, has kept his body in pristine condition over the years, and survives on his shooting ability and knowledge of the game, not just his athleticism? That describes Ray Allen perfectly, right? I can easily see Ray Allen running off Al Jefferson/Kedrick Perkins screens for the next five years. Calm down Celtics fans. You're going to be fine.

In fact, you even get a cherry on top: Big Baby. Here was a guy with first round talent who slipped to the second round because everyone was worried he would eat himself out of the NBA. Well, now that he was insulted, and doesn't have a guaranteed contract, he's going to pull a Charlie Villanueva: go in, play hard, and dominate for several years to get revenge on those who insutled him. It's the perfect situation for both Davis and the Celtics. I still think Big Baby eats himself out of the NBA eventually (just like Charlie V's craziness will eventually take over and he'll ruin his career), but it will happen in 5 to 7 years instead of 1 to 2 years. That's a good deal.

At the same time, Seattle just added a talented winner who everyone loved, but scouts questioned whether this guy had the knack for being The Man. Everyone felt he would be better as The Back Up Guy--the second best player to a star. More of a Pippen than a Jordan, for example. If only Seattle had just added a few minutes earlier a star player who people were already comparing to Jordan...someone like, oh, Kevin Durant. It's almost like it was meant to be.

On top of that, Seattle just lost a huge contract that will allow them to have the cap space to pick up a stud in free agency in a coupla years--you know, right when Durant and Green have figured out the league and are becoming a dominant force.

Again...great trade for both teams.

Yi to the Bucks with the 6th pick: This is hilarious on so many levels. Let's list the ways:
$ This guy is a fucking scrub who will be the next Wang, not the next Yao.
$ This is a good team in Milwaukee that is one or two players away, and they just pissed it all away by passing on Chauncey in free agency and not picking up a stud SF (Corey Brewer? Al Thornton?) with this pick.
$ Yi actually thinks he has bargaining power and thinks there is a high demand for his services, even as he goes and sucks it up in the summer tournaments, so he's refusing to play for the Bucks so far.
$ The Bucks are dreaming of trading Yi for someone like Golden State--even though Goldent State just let their most tradeable asset, and the asset that the Bucks could have used, go to the Bobcats for nothing.

The only hope they have is moving Yi for something good, which the odds of that happening are getting worse by the day. And even if they do move Yi for Monta Ellis and Bradan Wright, is that a good fit for this team? A point guard who can only score with a 2-guard who can only score? Another mediocre PF who will never reach his talent (see Villaneuva, Charlie)? When you could have had Corey Brewer? Idiocy.

Golden State trades Jason Richardson to Charlotte for Bradan Wright: That sound you heard was a sigh of relief from me. See, I was worried that once again Golden State would come back to haunt my beloved Mavericks next year. Instead, they traded their second best player for a rookie who isn't going to amount to much of anything, and are talking about then trading that player and one of their surprises from last season for a Chinese guy who is going to amount to even less than the other rookie.

Whew. Thanks Don! Keep drinking! See you in the lottery!

Rashard Lewis signs with the Magic for around 5 years, $75 million: Is this a good deal? Not really. But look at it this way: They were going to pay Darko $50 million if they didn't do this. That is one of the worst ideas of all time. They desperately need someone who can score on this team, and even though they have one of the best rebounders in the NBA, they still need help rebounding as there is no one to rebound after Dwight Howard. So you're adding a 6'10" SF who can shoot, penetrate, and score on the block, is a good (not great) rebounder, and is only 28 years old. Compare that to giving one of the biggest busts of all time (a guy who has averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds in his career) and has a reputation for being lazy $50 million, and suddenly this becomes not so bad of a deal.

You were an 8 seed in the East last year; now you're a 6 seed easily, maybe even a 5 if you get lucky.

Now go find a real point guard, because Jameer Nelson is not a starter in the league.

6 Comments:

Blogger Michael Pondrom said...

***!!! UPDATE !!!***
Grant Hill signs with Phoenix Suns:
I can't believe I forgot to write about this. This is an OUTSTANDING pick up for the Suns--and I'm still mad at the Mavs for not doing more to get him. A veteran leader who has made him money and will do anything to win. He can score, he can pass, and he can defend, and is completely selfless. The Suns finally have a bench player who can come in at the 2 and 3--and don't be shocked at all if Hill backs Little Stevie Nash up at the point from time to time--which is something they've desperately needed over the years. This is an outstanding acquisition for them for dirt cheap.

Michael

2:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lol no Yi love?!

Oden/Durant: I think Portland was in that ultra-rare situation where they could have legitimately taken either guy, especially with the Frye for Randolph deal on tap. I'm still not sure about Oden. I think right now the closest modern guy I can peg him to is Mourning on skill set. I guess maybe shades of early Shaq too, but he needs to get motivated to crack some skulls. But the closest guy I can peg Durant to is McGrady (Orlando version). A ridiculously smooth jumper, *some* willingness to drive, not a lot of actual defense (save a few risky blocks). The thing about Durant is he seems about 4 years ahead of the curve for that type of player whereas Oden seems like he's right where he should be. But yeah, I think Oden makes the most sense given what it takes in the pro world and the rarity of a *true* franchise center.

Randolph/Frye: I think it's an okay trade, but all I wonder is... that's the BEST Portland could do? A guy putting up 25/10 in the WEST, and all you can do is get back Frye who had a marginal sophomore year and you're going to buy out Francis for some ungodly figure? Zach must've laid some serious turds around the league... Also, maybe I'm naive, but I also wonder given what happened, why the Blazers wouldn't just run Francis at point for a while until Sergio proves himself or they find another deal. From the NY perspective, I think this was highway robbery. Randolph is a killer talent, and young. And if anyone has at least some advice on going from the street to something positive, it's Marbury. And I think Isiah has a similar type of background also if I recall, although not involved with things so much as surrounded by them.

Hawks: Man, I don't know. If the Stoudemire thing was real, you definitely pounce on it IF you keep Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Amare aside.... how did Conley NOT get picked up here? A few weeks prior, people were questioning whether or not the Hawks would be silly to overdraft Conley at 3 when he was projected around 10. But then the Griz stepped up and all but announced they were taking him at 4 which should have given Atlanta all the guilt-free reasons in the world to take Conley. Everyone knows Atlanta has more forwards than the rest of the East combined, why not just take the one legit star-PG prospect. Maybe it will work out with Law... he seems ferocious like his common comparison in Cassell. At least Horford/Law's not the worst thing in the world... I am rooting for the Hawks to play well.

Grizzlies: Gonna be sicko. As a fan, I think Toronto/Memphis would be an awesome NBA finals in a couple years. Hell will probably freeze over first, but I think it would be highly entertaining.


Boston: My first reaction, pre-Simmons article was... wow, Boston is gonna be a nightmare. They kind of pulled a double here, not just by adding a star, but by adding a star who can protect their budding star in Jefferson. I need to make a point of tuning into a Celtics game about 20 games into the season. They have some really fun talent (I love the Big Baby!). And post-Simmons, I agree with you completely Mike. Allen is a smart shooter, not a guy who gets by on athleticism. And I would still very much rate him as one of the absolute best 2-guards in the league and a guy I would kill to get.

Yi: I think he'll be good if ends up in GS. He needs an open style to excel since he's much more athletic than any of the other Chinese bigs. Milwaukee was probably the most dreaded destination on his list...

Jrich: Love the trade for Charlotte. It's pretty okay for GS. I agree Wright is just way too raw, and Hollinger says Wright is one of the worst rebounders for his position in the entire draft. I'm also not sure why you think about moving Ellis, Baron Davis has injury problems and is getting up there in age.

Rashard: Okay signing, but I just wonder for Rashard.... Orlando?? Wouldn't Seattle be about a million times more fun? If you want a championship, Orlando was the wrong city to pick out of the hat.

Hill: Killer for the Suns. I still think Hill is a really solid player in the NBA and has all the tools to dominate with the space provided by the Phoenix system. I'm really, really sad Phx didn't end up with a lottery pick. A guy like Noah or Horford would have been fun to watch there.

Also, Tony and I have been talkin.... this year's fantasy draft is going to be brutal. So many unknowns, new faces, and team changes.

3:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oden/Durant: Common-sense moves for both teams.

Randolph/Frye: Portland desperately wanted to trade Randolph and they desparately did. Frye is a 10 min/night backup at best.

Hawks: I would have preferred Conley. I think he could be a solid player if not a star at PG. I have a gut feeling Law is a shooting guard in a point guard's body ala every guard Atlanta has drafted for the last 10 years. Since that draft strategy hasn't worked in the last 10 years, I don't think it will work this year.

Grizzlies: Their season was remarkably similar to the year the Robinson was hurt for the Spurs. A different bounce in the ping pong balls and they could have Oden or Durant teamed with Gasol and company.

Allen/Baby for Green: Let me take a breath before diving in...
When I first saw this trade, I thought it was a great deal for Seattle. Trade an older Allen for a great young player(in my opinion at least) in Corey Brewer. I really like Brewer. I think he was the guy that put Florida over the top for the last two years. He always played GREAT defense on the best player the other team had. Go back through the tourney games and look at all the guys he totally shut down. And to top that, he scored a fair amount of points too! But its not just that he scored a few points, its that he scored shooting 3's. He scored slashing through the lane as well. He passed the ball well. He's 6'6 to 6'7' with long arms? He can play the 2 or the 3 and can guard 1's? He may not be a franchise all-star, but a Pippin replica, he could be. Paired with Durant, they could be really good in 2-3 years.

...Then, they drafted Green. (Enter huge sinking feeling) Green's a nice player, but I really worry about him disappearing in the tournament. Money players don't do that.

...Then, I found out they traded what eventually became Big Baby. I don't know how good he will be, but he is a load in the middle and you can't say that about many guys on the ThreePointer's roster. I definately would have given him a chance in the 2nd round.

So I went from being thrilled with the trade to okay with it, to, now, kinda having that feeling of having been seriously jipped. Allen may be old, but he is, by far, the best pure shooter in the league. If one of his legs was cut off at the ankle, he could probably still be a solid bench player with a prosthetic, the way he shoots. If he wants to, he could play in this league until he is 40. So unless I am wrong about Green or unless the ThreePointers can use the extra cap space for a good FA, I think this was a bad trade for Seattle(soon to be OKC).

Bucks: They just aren't a very well run organization. This is par for the course for them.

Excellent trade for Charlotte. They are slowly putting together a nice team. With Nelson's shotgun approach to...everything, they will win some games and series they aren't supposed to and lose some too. They will be entertaining, but should lose in the first couple of rounds each year. Se la vie.

Rashard to Orlando. I really think he wants to be the Man more than he wants to win. When he started at Seattle, GP was the Man. Then Ray Allen was the Man. I think the trade of Allen, made him think (just briefly) that he would now be the face of the ThreePointers. Then he reallized that Durant would be the center of all advertising. In Orlando, Rashard has a better chance of being the Man. Howard may get 12 rebounds a night, but Rashard will score 25+.

Hill to the Suns is great. The rich get richer...
I still would rather have seen them trade Amare for KG. I have serious doubts about Amare maintaning his greatness (1) without Steve Nash, (2) with a bum knee (trust me, they are never the same, no matter what), (3) without proper motivation/improvements in intelligence. In regard to (3), please see Kemp, Shawn.

I thoroughly enjoyed this blog topic. You are right, Mike. This postseason was easily surpassed by this offseason.

Bo

8:34 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I completely agree about Corey Brewer. That guy's upside on both sides of the ball is downright ridiculous.

The 3pt shooting combined with slashing is exactly what you want in a winger.

Aaron Afflalo should be forced to get a tattoo that says, "Corey Brewer is my daddy." Brewer destroyed the best defensive unit in the tourney (UCLA) single-handedly, and then completely demolished both the game and will of that team's best player (Afflalo). And when he was done with Afflalo due to foul trouble, he moved over to shut down their ultra-quick PG Collison. One of the best final four, let alone tourney, performances I've ever seen.

10:40 AM  
Blogger Michael Pondrom said...

I agree with you both--I would have taken Brewer over Green. I think the logic there was "with Green we won't get into a Stephon Marbury-Kevin Garnett 'who da man' debate". I don't really see that with Brewer, but I don't know him. I think Green will still be an excellent player by Durant, so it'll be okay. However, yes, when you walk up to me and ask who I'd rather have, it's Corey Brewer.

Bo, I loved your comments on Milwaukee. Simple, yet dead on. They are just a poorly run organization.

Michael

4:36 PM  
Blogger Michael Pondrom said...

You know what else is scary? Read what I wrote about Rashard Lewis signing a $75 mil deal. "Is this a good deal? Not really." Instead, they spend an extra $35 mil on top of that.

INSANE. We can just call Lewis Allan Houston Jr.


Michael

4:38 PM  

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