Thoughts on the NBA Finals: Game 1
Today's quote is for you, Miami.
Last night was like watching an overly polite host argue with an overly polite guest.
Host: "Please, I insist: go ahead and take the game."
Guest: "Oh no, I couldn't possibly."
Host: "No no no...I insist. I want you to have it."
Guest: "I thank you, but I just couldn't. I really wouldn't feel right."
Host: "But please! You simply must take it! It's only proper."
Guest: "Really, I must decline. I know how much it means to you; I just would not feel right."
Host: "Are you absolutely sure?"
Guest: "Positive. It would make me happy if you took it."
Host: "Well...if you insist..."
Guest: "I do. Please enjoy!"
With the exception of Jason Terry and maybe Erik Dampier (I know, I can't believe I just wrote that either), everyone on the Mavs had a bad game last night. In spite of that, the Heat still couldn't beat us--and they had a better game than people realize. Walker had a good game, they did a great job on the offensive boards, and Shaq & DWade shot 53% from the field. In other words, this was Miami's best opportunity to win a game at home from the Mavs, and they could not do it.
Again, that's what surprises me so much about the pundits who picked Miami. This team is just not that good. I've said it once, and I'll say it again: Shaq is a 20-10 guy now, not a 30-15 guy. While statistically that does not look like a big difference, in basketball terms it is a huge difference--especially when the rest of your team sucks. You might see one, maybe two "monster" games out of Shaq in a 7 game series at this point in the playoffs, but he's just too old and worn down to put up any more than that. People get old. It happens. Accept it.
And I don't want to hear any "well, Miami will never shoot 37% from the free throw line again! I just can't believe that happened!" Yes, it will. It's happened before--they shot 30% against the Pistons in one game, so it can get even worse--and it will happen again. When something happens once, it's a fluke. When something happens again, then it's reality, and when two of your starters--Shaq and Toine--shot 47% and 63% from the line, respectively, then you're usually going to shoot around 50-60% as a team--which is not good, especially when you're playing a team that shoots 75% from the line on a bad night.
Last night was interesting, in that you didn't truly know what to expect, which has been unusual. Dallas has played San Antonio and Phoenix so many times this season/over the years, that you know how the teams match up, who has to stick who, which team has to establish their style of play, etc. You knew what each team needed to do to win; it was just a question of who was going to do what was needed.
But Dallas only plays Miami twice a year, and it's safe to say that the Miami team Dallas played early in the season is not the same team that is playing now. You had a general idea of how the games would play itself out, but you didn't really know what was going to happen. Well, now we have an idea, and it's confirming what I thought before the series: Shaq and DWade--maybe even Toine if he gets really hot one night--can come together and have a really monster game, and win one or two games. And I mean monster games. But aside from that happening, Miami cannot beat Dallas. They just can't. They're just not that good. And Shaq and DWade just aren't good enough to have 4 of the monster games they need to have to win the series. Shaq is too old, and DWade is too young. It's almost sad, because I like Miami--I love Shaq and DWade, and if they weren't playing Dallas, I'd probably be rooting for them. But these are the facts--and they are irrefutable.
Go Mavs!
Last night was like watching an overly polite host argue with an overly polite guest.
Host: "Please, I insist: go ahead and take the game."
Guest: "Oh no, I couldn't possibly."
Host: "No no no...I insist. I want you to have it."
Guest: "I thank you, but I just couldn't. I really wouldn't feel right."
Host: "But please! You simply must take it! It's only proper."
Guest: "Really, I must decline. I know how much it means to you; I just would not feel right."
Host: "Are you absolutely sure?"
Guest: "Positive. It would make me happy if you took it."
Host: "Well...if you insist..."
Guest: "I do. Please enjoy!"
With the exception of Jason Terry and maybe Erik Dampier (I know, I can't believe I just wrote that either), everyone on the Mavs had a bad game last night. In spite of that, the Heat still couldn't beat us--and they had a better game than people realize. Walker had a good game, they did a great job on the offensive boards, and Shaq & DWade shot 53% from the field. In other words, this was Miami's best opportunity to win a game at home from the Mavs, and they could not do it.
Again, that's what surprises me so much about the pundits who picked Miami. This team is just not that good. I've said it once, and I'll say it again: Shaq is a 20-10 guy now, not a 30-15 guy. While statistically that does not look like a big difference, in basketball terms it is a huge difference--especially when the rest of your team sucks. You might see one, maybe two "monster" games out of Shaq in a 7 game series at this point in the playoffs, but he's just too old and worn down to put up any more than that. People get old. It happens. Accept it.
And I don't want to hear any "well, Miami will never shoot 37% from the free throw line again! I just can't believe that happened!" Yes, it will. It's happened before--they shot 30% against the Pistons in one game, so it can get even worse--and it will happen again. When something happens once, it's a fluke. When something happens again, then it's reality, and when two of your starters--Shaq and Toine--shot 47% and 63% from the line, respectively, then you're usually going to shoot around 50-60% as a team--which is not good, especially when you're playing a team that shoots 75% from the line on a bad night.
Last night was interesting, in that you didn't truly know what to expect, which has been unusual. Dallas has played San Antonio and Phoenix so many times this season/over the years, that you know how the teams match up, who has to stick who, which team has to establish their style of play, etc. You knew what each team needed to do to win; it was just a question of who was going to do what was needed.
But Dallas only plays Miami twice a year, and it's safe to say that the Miami team Dallas played early in the season is not the same team that is playing now. You had a general idea of how the games would play itself out, but you didn't really know what was going to happen. Well, now we have an idea, and it's confirming what I thought before the series: Shaq and DWade--maybe even Toine if he gets really hot one night--can come together and have a really monster game, and win one or two games. And I mean monster games. But aside from that happening, Miami cannot beat Dallas. They just can't. They're just not that good. And Shaq and DWade just aren't good enough to have 4 of the monster games they need to have to win the series. Shaq is too old, and DWade is too young. It's almost sad, because I like Miami--I love Shaq and DWade, and if they weren't playing Dallas, I'd probably be rooting for them. But these are the facts--and they are irrefutable.
Go Mavs!
posted by Michael Pondrom at 8:45 PM
1 Comments:
Shaq looked worse than I have ever seen him at the free throw line. He knew he was going to miss before he even threw it. (Note: I didn't say shoot it.) Don Nelson finally got into his head.
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