Tournament Time
March: the month that the least amount of work gets done in America. That's right, this probably even beats December. Does anyone actually do anything in March? It amazes me how that works out. Anyway, while yes, it's true, I am an NBA expert, I'm not quite as good with the NCAA. I just don't keep up with it as much as I used to, as the talent level is incredibly diluted and the game is not as fun to watch as the NBA is.
To Marc, Julie, Ben...actually, to everyone except Sherry, Tim, Carly, maybe BVo, Bill Simmons, and that's probably about it: THAT'S RIGHT! I SAID THE NBA IS BETTER THAN COLLEGE BASKETBALL! NOW SUCK IT! THAT'S RIGHT, SUCK IT! HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Sorry, got a little carried away there. However, that being said, there is not a sporting event more exciting than the NCAA tournament: anything can, will, and does happen, and the edge of your seat thrill is second to none. It is greatness.
Now, as I said, I don't keep up with college basketball as much as I used to, so I can't tell you "Dude, I've seen both Oakland and Oklahoma A&M play three times each, and I can GUARANTEE you that Oakland will pull out the upset!" However, I do keep an eye out on the major teams, and I do have some tips you can use for making your own bracket.
1) Remember: It's not what you've done...it's what you've done for me lately. This is the most important thing to remember. Trust me on this: basketball is a game of runs. An individual goes on runs during a game...a team goes on runs during a game...teams go on runs during a season. I cannot stress this enough. Pay attention to how the team has played lately; who has is hurt, who is coming off the IL (remember: a player coming back from a long injury is not always a good thing!), how the team has been shooting lately, and who they have won or lost against lately. You don't want a team that is too hot, and you don't want won that is cold. You want one that is just starting to heat up.
2) It doesn't matter how good you are; it matters how good you match up. This is where the upsets come from. Unfortunately, I'm going to have to use my alma matter as an example here. OSU is a great team. However, they have no big guys AT ALL. They haven't stopped a decent--not good, decent--big man in months, if all season. So when they play LSU in the Sweet 16, I'm VERY concerned, because LSU has some great forwards. Yes, OSU has a better team: they're deeper, they're guards are better, they've played a tougher schedule. However, a team with one or more dominant big men can give them a ton of trouble. You have to watch out for things like that; if a team can't stop a penetrating point guard, and they're playing Wake Forest, they're going to have problems. It doesn't matter how good the teams are overall, it matters how they match up on that particular day.
3) Pay attention to the school's/coach's history. This shouldn't matter...but it does. The basketball gods favor some and don't favor others. It's a simple fact. Some schools simply always underachieve (Arizona, Kansas). Some coaches always underachieve (Roy Williams). Some schools/coaches seem to always overachieve (Syracuse). Remember that when picking them in a tight game.
4) Guard play isn't as important as it used to be. The college game has become a lot more physical, and the guards less talented. At the same time, forwards have become a lot more versatile, following in the Kevin Garnett mold. So the old adage of "ride the guards all the way" isn't completely dead, but isn't quite as lively as it used to be. Now don't get me wrong: a bad backcourt will get you nowhere. But an above average backcourt with dominant forwards (UCONN with Okafur and Vilanoiva [no way I spelled that right, and I don't want to look it up], Syracuse with Carmelo and Warrick) will get you a lot further than it used to.
5) Go ahead and ride that dominant player. This isn't as true this year, as there is no clearcut player of the year, or two. However, there are still dominant players who can and will be the differencemakers in tight games (Hakim Warrick, Chris Paul, Dee Brown). If you're having trouble picking between two teams, ties go to the best player.
6) Beware the best team. I'm struggling with this one right now. I like Illinois. I think they lost at the perfect time; remember rule #1, basketball is a game of runs. So they lost that one game early enough that they could get started on another run: they are a team that is definitely heating up at the perfect time. HOWEVER, being the best team in the country is hard. To actually pull off the final victory, you usually have to be head AND shoulders better than everyone else. I think the Fighting Illini (I love that name) are head above everyone else, but not necessarily shoulders. So that makes me very hesitant to pick them.
7) Headfake! My favorite names in college basketball: Salukis, Fighting Illini, Tar Heels, Orangemen, Blazers (the name is okay, but they have a Dragon as their mascot!), Demon Deacons, and the Ragin' Cajuns (don't forget the apostrophe!).
8) Beware of popular opinion on upsets. And we're back! If everyone is guaranteeing an upset is going to happen for a certain game, well, then it's probably not going to happen. It's as simple as that.
9) Go with your gut. No, your gut probably isn't that accurate, unless you really pay attention to college basketball, at which point you don't need to go with your gut, because you actually know what you're doing. It's just more fun to go with your gut, and that's what it's supposed to be all about.
10) Insert glib basketball phrase here (And Ones, Loose Balls, Turnovers, etc.). It pisses me off that Washington is a Number 1 seed; Wake Forest, OSU, and maybe even Kentucky deserved it over them. Beware the team that is just happy to be there. Go with the team that is really pissed off about something tangible and has something to prove. I think Hakim Warrick will have an amazing tournament. I really want to pick Utah State over Arizona, but I just don't think I can do it. Nothing would be funnier than seeing which team choked first if UNC and Kansas did play each other; would they both actually try to throw the game? Why does Gonzaga get ranked so high every year? God I hate the "Chicago/Albuquerque/Syracuse/Austin" thing. Call them by the regions!
My Final Four: Illinois, Wake Forest, UNC, Syracuse. Wake Forest beats Syracuse for the title, and all because Wake Forest is pissed about Chris Paul getting suspended for as long as he did, and for putting them as a two seed.
And I don't blame them.
If Wake doesn't win it, the Fighting Illini will.
Have fun everyone!
To Marc, Julie, Ben...actually, to everyone except Sherry, Tim, Carly, maybe BVo, Bill Simmons, and that's probably about it: THAT'S RIGHT! I SAID THE NBA IS BETTER THAN COLLEGE BASKETBALL! NOW SUCK IT! THAT'S RIGHT, SUCK IT! HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Sorry, got a little carried away there. However, that being said, there is not a sporting event more exciting than the NCAA tournament: anything can, will, and does happen, and the edge of your seat thrill is second to none. It is greatness.
Now, as I said, I don't keep up with college basketball as much as I used to, so I can't tell you "Dude, I've seen both Oakland and Oklahoma A&M play three times each, and I can GUARANTEE you that Oakland will pull out the upset!" However, I do keep an eye out on the major teams, and I do have some tips you can use for making your own bracket.
1) Remember: It's not what you've done...it's what you've done for me lately. This is the most important thing to remember. Trust me on this: basketball is a game of runs. An individual goes on runs during a game...a team goes on runs during a game...teams go on runs during a season. I cannot stress this enough. Pay attention to how the team has played lately; who has is hurt, who is coming off the IL (remember: a player coming back from a long injury is not always a good thing!), how the team has been shooting lately, and who they have won or lost against lately. You don't want a team that is too hot, and you don't want won that is cold. You want one that is just starting to heat up.
2) It doesn't matter how good you are; it matters how good you match up. This is where the upsets come from. Unfortunately, I'm going to have to use my alma matter as an example here. OSU is a great team. However, they have no big guys AT ALL. They haven't stopped a decent--not good, decent--big man in months, if all season. So when they play LSU in the Sweet 16, I'm VERY concerned, because LSU has some great forwards. Yes, OSU has a better team: they're deeper, they're guards are better, they've played a tougher schedule. However, a team with one or more dominant big men can give them a ton of trouble. You have to watch out for things like that; if a team can't stop a penetrating point guard, and they're playing Wake Forest, they're going to have problems. It doesn't matter how good the teams are overall, it matters how they match up on that particular day.
3) Pay attention to the school's/coach's history. This shouldn't matter...but it does. The basketball gods favor some and don't favor others. It's a simple fact. Some schools simply always underachieve (Arizona, Kansas). Some coaches always underachieve (Roy Williams). Some schools/coaches seem to always overachieve (Syracuse). Remember that when picking them in a tight game.
4) Guard play isn't as important as it used to be. The college game has become a lot more physical, and the guards less talented. At the same time, forwards have become a lot more versatile, following in the Kevin Garnett mold. So the old adage of "ride the guards all the way" isn't completely dead, but isn't quite as lively as it used to be. Now don't get me wrong: a bad backcourt will get you nowhere. But an above average backcourt with dominant forwards (UCONN with Okafur and Vilanoiva [no way I spelled that right, and I don't want to look it up], Syracuse with Carmelo and Warrick) will get you a lot further than it used to.
5) Go ahead and ride that dominant player. This isn't as true this year, as there is no clearcut player of the year, or two. However, there are still dominant players who can and will be the differencemakers in tight games (Hakim Warrick, Chris Paul, Dee Brown). If you're having trouble picking between two teams, ties go to the best player.
6) Beware the best team. I'm struggling with this one right now. I like Illinois. I think they lost at the perfect time; remember rule #1, basketball is a game of runs. So they lost that one game early enough that they could get started on another run: they are a team that is definitely heating up at the perfect time. HOWEVER, being the best team in the country is hard. To actually pull off the final victory, you usually have to be head AND shoulders better than everyone else. I think the Fighting Illini (I love that name) are head above everyone else, but not necessarily shoulders. So that makes me very hesitant to pick them.
7) Headfake! My favorite names in college basketball: Salukis, Fighting Illini, Tar Heels, Orangemen, Blazers (the name is okay, but they have a Dragon as their mascot!), Demon Deacons, and the Ragin' Cajuns (don't forget the apostrophe!).
8) Beware of popular opinion on upsets. And we're back! If everyone is guaranteeing an upset is going to happen for a certain game, well, then it's probably not going to happen. It's as simple as that.
9) Go with your gut. No, your gut probably isn't that accurate, unless you really pay attention to college basketball, at which point you don't need to go with your gut, because you actually know what you're doing. It's just more fun to go with your gut, and that's what it's supposed to be all about.
10) Insert glib basketball phrase here (And Ones, Loose Balls, Turnovers, etc.). It pisses me off that Washington is a Number 1 seed; Wake Forest, OSU, and maybe even Kentucky deserved it over them. Beware the team that is just happy to be there. Go with the team that is really pissed off about something tangible and has something to prove. I think Hakim Warrick will have an amazing tournament. I really want to pick Utah State over Arizona, but I just don't think I can do it. Nothing would be funnier than seeing which team choked first if UNC and Kansas did play each other; would they both actually try to throw the game? Why does Gonzaga get ranked so high every year? God I hate the "Chicago/Albuquerque/Syracuse/Austin" thing. Call them by the regions!
My Final Four: Illinois, Wake Forest, UNC, Syracuse. Wake Forest beats Syracuse for the title, and all because Wake Forest is pissed about Chris Paul getting suspended for as long as he did, and for putting them as a two seed.
And I don't blame them.
If Wake doesn't win it, the Fighting Illini will.
Have fun everyone!
posted by Michael Pondrom at 12:25 PM
3 Comments:
I think everyone got on the "You need good guard play to win" thing after the Bryce Drew and Steve Nash type guards pulled upsets with last second shots. You're exactly right, though. It isn't the guards that you need so much as the 3 point shooting. A lesser team with a hot shooter from downtown can beat a lot of better teams. Two or three hot 3point shooters and you can beat anybody.
I like to think that you need 3 point shooters to win the first 2 rounds. You need solid paint players and great defense to win the next 2 rounds. And you need a little NBA talent to win the whole thing. Some thoughts on selected teams:
Illinois: Great guards and great shooting. They should easily be in the sweet 16. Solid defense, but no real good post players. Getting to the final four may be a little hit or miss. As for NBA talent, I just don't know. Brown and Head might could make it with the right team, but they won't be superstars. I just can't see them winning it all.
UNC: Good guards, good forwards, easily the best starting five in the nation. I don't know that Roy Williams is a bad coach; he's just unlucky. Contrast him to Coach K, who is probably the luckiest coach in the business.
Duke: I really don't like Reddick, but he can keep them in any game. And Sheldon Williams is a MAN. They have no depth whatsoever, though. If Williams gets in early foul trouble...
UCONN: Lack of perimeter shooting will hurt this team at some point.
Kansas: See above.
OSU: Great shooters, decent defenders, no post players. I would love for them to win it all, but this team just doesn't have the interior to do it. Last year's team was better defensively and only got to the final four. By Sutton standards, this team's defense is horrendous.
Gonzaga: I really thought they were seeded pretty well. They went on the road and played a lot of good teams this year. They have a decent backcourt (although nowhere near their normal standards) and a very solid frontcourt. Really, they don't have many holes.
Wake Forest: You intentionally foul someone hard and a few games suspension isn't enough (Chaney and Temple kid) People want your job. You deliberately low blow a guy during a game and its just a one-time lack of judgement. We'll give him a one game suspension. Who says talent isn't important. Good shooters, bad defense. Look for them to make the sweet 16, but then get knocked off.
Who's going to win it all? I have no idea. If you pulled someone off the street in Guatamala, they would outpick me more times than not.
I think everyone got on the "You need good guard play to win" thing after the Bryce Drew and Steve Nash type guards pulled upsets with last second shots. You're exactly right, though. It isn't the guards that you need so much as the 3 point shooting. A lesser team with a hot shooter from downtown can beat a lot of better teams. Two or three hot 3point shooters and you can beat anybody.
I like to think that you need 3 point shooters to win the first 2 rounds. You need solid paint players and great defense to win the next 2 rounds. And you need a little NBA talent to win the whole thing. Some thoughts on selected teams:
Illinois: Great guards and great shooting. They should easily be in the sweet 16. Solid defense, but no real good post players. Getting to the final four may be a little hit or miss. As for NBA talent, I just don't know. Brown and Head might could make it with the right team, but they won't be superstars. I just can't see them winning it all.
UNC: Good guards, good forwards, easily the best starting five in the nation. I don't know that Roy Williams is a bad coach; he's just unlucky. Contrast him to Coach K, who is probably the luckiest coach in the business.
Duke: I really don't like Reddick, but he can keep them in any game. And Sheldon Williams is a MAN. They have no depth whatsoever, though. If Williams gets in early foul trouble...
UCONN: Lack of perimeter shooting will hurt this team at some point.
Kansas: See above.
OSU: Great shooters, decent defenders, no post players. I would love for them to win it all, but this team just doesn't have the interior to do it. Last year's team was better defensively and only got to the final four. By Sutton standards, this team's defense is horrendous.
Gonzaga: I really thought they were seeded pretty well. They went on the road and played a lot of good teams this year. They have a decent backcourt (although nowhere near their normal standards) and a very solid frontcourt. Really, they don't have many holes.
Wake Forest: You intentionally foul someone hard and a few games suspension isn't enough (Chaney and Temple kid) People want your job. You deliberately low blow a guy during a game and its just a one-time lack of judgement. We'll give him a one game suspension. Who says talent isn't important. Good shooters, bad defense. Look for them to make the sweet 16, but then get knocked off.
Who's going to win it all? I have no idea. If you pulled someone off the street in Guatamala, they would outpick me more times than not.
Nix Pix (The Anti-Cinderella Bracket):
Champion: Oklahoma State (79-77)
Runner-Up: Kansas
Final Four: Wake Forest, Duke
Elite Eight: Illinois, Washington, North Carolina, Kentucky
Sweet Sixteen: Boston College, Arizona, Louisville, Texas Tech, Florida, Connecticut, Michigan State, Oklahoma.
Honestly, I think we have a good Final Four shot if our road plays out as it should.
Zona has Channing Frye, but we all know that, historically, Zona centers are VERY pussy. Illinois' James Augustine is capable of very good games, he actually reminds me a little of Jonzen, but he's not a game-breaker.
Wake's Eric Williams and KU's Simien are different cases altogether, but year-in year-out I refuse to pick a bracket that doesn't have Oklahoma State winning it all. 2 seed, 8 seed, 16 seed... if we're in the dance, OSU wins my bracket.
As I've told Tony, I think this is one of the best all-around brackets I've ever seen.
Chicago: Four teams that drew 1 seed potential down the stretch in Illinois, OSU, BC and Arizona. No one knows which Texas team will show up. Bama has been under UK's shadow all year but playing very well, not to mention LSU had a shot at the SEC title. Then throw in a slew of upset teams in Nevada, UW-Milwaukee, UAB, Southern Illinois and a St Mary's team that has finally gotten in the dance with Gonzaga.
Albuquerque: The dark horse #1, Washington, has a chip on their shoulder now, but has the most frightening 2nd round match-up available for a 1: Pittsburgh. Much like Texas, who knows what Pitt team will show up. I think this region has the most intriguing 4 vs 5 matchup in GT and Louisville... Tech got shredded up in the ACC, and yet almost won the ACC Tournament, while Louisville must be ready to kill someone about a 4 seed (is this the WORST seed ever given to a top 8 team?) This bracket also has the BEST 3 vs 6 matchup in enigmatic Texas Tech vs. still-everything-to-prove Gonzaga. Throw in the chosen-ones, Wake Forest, and a 2nd round matchup vs. surprise West Virginia and this bracket is phenomenal also.
Syracuse: It's already over-hyped, but you know you want to see it... UNC vs. Kansas. This only could've been better if Langford had transferred to Chapel Hill. A fun 4 vs 5 matchup in cinderella-favorite Villanova and the resurrected Gators. KU vs UConn has all the makings of a historic Sweet 16 game. CBS analysts said they thought this was the toughest region, but I think it's just the opposite. UNC, UConn (how did a 22-7 team get a #2?) and Kansas.... along with a bunch of will-not-make-the-final-four teams. Still a fun bracket because of the big names at the top.
Austin: My favorite team to follow, Duke, headlines this bracket which is the strongest 1-5 in my opinion. Michigan State is on an absolute tear (14 W in their last 16) with a seriously talented roster and coach who's gotten the job done. This is Lawrence Roberts time to shine... he kind of fell off the radar this year, but should make Miss. St a very dangerous team. It's also a chance for the nation to see Player of the Year Andrew Bogut of Utah. I don't think any POY has ever received less press. OU has finished hot, Cinci is always thugalicious and UK has been very quiet this year amidst the ACC hype, but I wouldn't bet against Tubby Smith and the SEC champs.
Is there anything more beautiful than March?
Nick
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